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Friday, December 21, 2007

LETS SEE WHAT THIS DOES
TO THE STOCK PRICE!




Never a dull moment around here and this really will be interesting for sure. We have Linn Energy (LINE) which is promising a 2.52 distribution on a 23.00 stock price and a going foward yield of 10.9% this morning announcing a deal of over 1/2 a billion bucks and its immediately accretive to cash flow. More importantly they specifically said there will be no issuance of equity which should make the market happy. Conference call this morning at 11am. The sarcasm in me wants to say "this should be good to knock off 2 or 3 points and take the stock down to 20" but always the optimist we may actually see this open (dare i say it) higher. It might be nice if they come out and re-iterate the 2.52 annual distribution for Q1. Or would that cause the stock to sell off? (i'm pissed off right now!)


Lots of MLPS had blocks of size move in the last seconds of trading yesterday which drove the index down to 289.89.


Its now or never here kids as we are at a critical place on the charts. We are back at the August and October closing lows but still above the intra-day lows set during the mlp crash on that one huge August down day. Either it turns in here and we repeat December 2005 when the bottom was made on Dec 23 or prepare for more pain. With the yield spread at nearly 300 basis points...higher than it was in December 05....the odds are certainly in our favor.

Effectively this is the last full trading day of the year. Next week its pretty much a week off for most people so i have to believe anyone who had to sell or move stock of size has already done so. Stock futures are strong; up 100 dow points. Energy is higher and bond rates are sitting at just over 4%.

Just letting you guys know after today i will not be blogging until sometime next Wednesday afternoon. Christmas makes for busy times around here and that includes 3 family dinners beginning sunday...3 masses where this tenor gets to sing...and i am working through all of this as well. So the blog gets a rest. Let me just extend to all of you readers and posters a very Merry Chirstmas. In my view wishing someone a Merry Christmas is to extend the highest blessings to you and your family regardless of your faith (or non-faith). Ian Rand use to say that when asked as an aethist what happens when you sneeze and someone says God Bless You. We've become a generic society. We don't take the time anymore to get to know people so we use these generic phrases when speaking. It keeps us at a safe distance from the outside world. Its time we take a look at the consequences of such action. Its not pretty. So have yourself a Merry Christmas, eat lots of food, be happy, and do at least one kind thing to someone you know and maybe to someone you don't know!

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

merry christmas to you too
lf

Anonymous said...

dear joe
im dreiser139 and i read your mussings every day.
i thouroughly enjoy them.
u r extremly knowledgeable and for my money the best damn blog on the net.
i was the one who commented yesterday on line .bought yesterday at 23.20 cant believe i got this lucky just seemed to damn cheap plus i know omega.they are smart people plus the addition of ellis looks like we move today.
wishing u and your board the merriest of xmas s.
much health happiness and joy to all during this beautiful season.
thxs again joe for your wopnderful form u are greatly appreciated.

Anonymous said...

joe
sorry meant wonderful forum

joewxman said...

hey dreisert...seen your posts on the boards...always informative!!! And thank you for the kind words and wishes. Blogging this stuff keeps me focused and disciplined. And hopefully this news plus the end of the year end nonsense finally gets this thing back up. I think the statement about no new equity was put in there purposely to get the stock price going. We'll see.

Anonymous said...

Yesterday LINE posted slides. IN it they reiterate that they will present to the board a 2.52 distribution. So that's as positive as the lawyers allow!!
Also, when Joe is a pessimist, we have a great buying opportunity!!
Joe, the merriest Christmas wishes to you and yours. Obviously those of us who read your blog love it and gladly accept it as your unselfish gift to us.
Thanks, BOL and buy low-which is harder than it looks.
V

Anonymous said...

Dear Joe,
The best to you & yours for Xmas & the New Year!!!
Carlos

Anonymous said...

Merry Christmas to you Joe, and to everyone on this site!