SOME CHARTS OF INTEREST IN MY BOOK

On a morning where there is nothing going on in the group; we have no corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades, i thought i'd throw up a few charts and take a look at where we are and where we are going.


Most of these charts are still in recovery mode from the big selloff earlier in the month. The mlp index has come back up to the 200 day moving average where it hit a wall yesterday. And given the weak futures we'll start lower today. Meanwhile the Spiders for the S&P 500 are making a shoulder off that V shaped bottom. Volume is very low in this recovery which is not encouraging. But this could be setting up for a big fake-out. I think we will break out of this either to new all time highs or breakdown below the early August lows. I think the universal re-test scenario is just too easy and too obvious. All of this of course in my never to be humble opinion.

Now there is natural gas which is been in free fall since it hit 7.23 ahead of Hurricane Dean. Yesterday we hit 5.20 on the commodity when it reversed and closed near 5.40 and at the high of the day. I mentioned yesterday morning that if we saw a 4 handle i might get back in. When the reversal set up yesterday i took a small long postion late in the afternoon for an overnight trade only hoping to get a move to 5.50 this morning. We're up 7 cents to 5.45 right now so i may be out at the open...which is fine. The UNG chart continues to remain bearish so i won't take a long position to hold for a few weeks until i see better signs of a longer term bottom.

Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is one i'm long and while it has been volitile with everything else it seems to have a sideways trend with an up bias. I've been adding to positions in here in the lower 30s. Coal isn't going anywhere until natgas turns up. So there is no rush in here.

And then of course there is Terra Nitrogen (TNH) which is definitely not for the faint of heart. I made a nice trade from upper 60s to low 90s. Now we are pulling back. There is a gap on the charts between 85 and 87.50 from last week and i think the gap will be filled. In fact if the market is weak it could happen today. So i am going to ladder in and build another position in here for a trade. But the success of this trade will ultimately depend on the overall market breaking out to the upside from here. If that happens i think TNH will be back over 100. If the market breaks down this one will break down with it.


So we wait for what will be a down open. Remember all of what i posted above comes with no guarantees but it is food for thought.