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Sunday, August 19, 2007

Weather is cloudy and rainy here in ny so with nothing to do i am waitng for asia to open at 6pm. Dollar is up a little against the yen so the dollar yen implosion doesn't seem to be happening. Also Asia is playing catch up to NY and the discount rate cut.

I googled some arcticles from August September 1998 to remind me what took place back then and it was very interesting. The down sold off over 20% from 9300 to 7300 and made its bottom on 8/31. Labor day weekend Greenspan made a speech that the asia crisis was a threat to growth in the US. The markets saw that as code for easing of the fed funds rate. Bernake and the fed told us Friday that easing of the fed funds rate is coming and they are aware of what is going on. Also read this piece from Barrons and how the fed's move to cut the discount rate takes us back to the Volcker fed; something that Barron's likes very much.

Early trading has S&P futures down slightly but its early in the game here. I think it would be nice just to see the market stablize so we can calm things down a bit.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I would have guessed that the dollar would have weakened against the yen after the Fed action and the anticipated September cut to the Fed Funds rate. A weaker dollar/stronger yen was one of the factors behind the Nikkei's 5.4% drop on Friday.

So, I will be watching Asia tonight with some interest.

Bruce

joewxman said...

You know everybody and i mean everybody is convinced that the dollar will collapse if the fed cuts..which leads me to ask..what if the fed cuts and the dollar rallies?