TUESDAY STARTS WITH A RALLY!

MLPS will be higher out of the gate this morning and we are already seeing bids above yesterday's close. It also helps that the dollar is weaker this morning and that has put a bid under energy stocks. Nat gas was up yesterday while crude was down and nat gas is up again today along with crude by over 1%. It could be that nat gas is giving mlps a bit of a bid today.




I made the chart bigger today so we can see the selloff and the prospect for a bounce back up to 370 which is where resistence lies. We need to get above that decisively to keep the uptrend going. And 350 is where i have been looking for the breakdown place which we crossed but bounced right off from.

No news this morning to speak of and nothing of consequence with upgrades and downgrades so far. Stock futures are up by about 40 dow points and rates are a little higher. So we start higher and then lets see if sellers come in and overwhelm or whether its a rally day where strength builds.

MONDAY MORNING SELLING!

Markets look ugly right out of the gate this morning as European woes dominate, the dollar is rallying, and crude oil is down over 2 dollars. Last week MLPS finished higher on Friday as the dow dropped nearly 100 points. The momentum from the dead cat bounced carried mlps from 347 to 366. We argued based on the chart action that 370 was going to be tough to get through and we certainly won't get there this morning.




The dow is holding support and we will be cutting through those rising moving averages this morning. Its uptrend is still intact. Rates are favorable here with the 10 year at 3.10% and the 30 year at 4.27%.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is selling 4 million units of Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) that it holds to some interested principals so its not dumping the shares on the tape. Energy Transfer Equity is looking down at the open. No other news to speak of and no upgrades or downgrades. And there was much on the newswire over the weekend. Crude as we said is down however nat gas is up 5 cents at 4.27. It took awhile but nat gas rallied sharply on Friday and it could be that we are getting a seasonal move ahead of hurricane season? Just guessing on my part.

Enterprise just did a small trade down 1.33 while no trades yet on Energy Transfer Equity.

Up 5 points and at 364. Its turning into a nice bounce off the 347 low. But resistence looms nearby at 370. EV Parnters (KMP) is up 2 dollars and Kinder Morgan is up as the big winners today.

The pullback appears to have been temporary and mlps are heading back to the highs of the day as is nat gas after inventory numbers.

Mlp gains eroding as selling comes into energy sector. Up just 2 after being up 4.

THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE HAS LEGS!

After yesterday's 8 point plus gain on the mlp index and on a day where strength just built all day long (short covering?) the rally continues this morning and we're up another 3. Note that there is a lot of headroom in the chart until we get to about 370 or so where resistence lies and i am expecting that resistence to be rather formidable. The dow chart on the other hand looks much better and held support so my guess is we are going to attempt to take out 12,800 in short order.
The question is whether MLPS have arrivied at a decisive turning point and are telegraphing (rather noticeably) that interest rates are about to begin an important move higher. The key will be to see whether that 370 is a brick wall and that ultimately we head for new lows under 350 while the dow and the rest of the market keep going up.

Most mlps are up strong fractions to over a point in some cases like Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) which are leading the group higher. No noticable losers on the list so far this morning.

Nat gas inventory numbers out at 10:30am and they are selling ahead of the number which may mean a ride higher when it comes out (famous last words from a trader who just went long!).

THE MEOW YOU HEAR IS A DEAD CAT BOUNCE!

The selling over the last couple of weeks has taken us back to the beginning of the year on the mlp index but i suppose that after breaking 350 yesterday, buyers could not resist and we are seeing a 7.50 gain here at lunch time. Large gains across the board like EV Partners (EVEP) which is up over 3 points and Alliance Resource (ARLP) which is up nearly 2. The gains are noteworthy but have broken the uptrend and now the test will be on this bounce to see how high we can go. What was support is now resistence and you can see the moving average lines are up around 370 or so. We will see what happens when we get there but for now i am of the opinion that rallies should be sold.

Seeking Alpha had an interesting piece on the mlp correction, what it means and what it doesn't mean. This writer has been calling for a big pullback and argues that this is not it! The correction has only brought yield spreads to the low end of the normal range and it has been helped by long rates dropping about 50 basis points in the last couple of months.

Crude is higher on inventories and energy stocks are taking it as another tailwind today as they bounce as well.

Down nearly 6 and at the lows of the day. 350 looms.

The race down to 350 continues with the MLP index now down nearly 4 and at the lows of the day. EV Partners (EVEP) is down 3 dollars as the days biggest loser. Nustar (NS) is down 1 and about to break under 60. Atlas Pipeline (APL) is down 1.22, and Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is down nearly 2 points. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is losing just under 1 point.

Dow down 130 and also at the lows of the day. Crude and nat gas are lower as we head into midday.

MLPS AT THE LOWS OF THE YEAR!

It doesn't take much but in just a few short weeks we've gone from 390 on the mlp index to a shade under 357 and that puts us at the lows for 2011. The selloff of course began with the taxation threat news and except for bounces (which should have been sold into) the drop continues. Oddly the drop is coming as interest rates continue to slowly drop to the lows of the year so one could surmise that the market may be signalling some sort of economic dip is on the horizon. Still mlps did not exactly sell off when rates rose from last October to January as one might have expected. So i really don't want to read too much into this for the broader market outlook. But one finds it hard to ignore all the selling in commodities lately and the rising dollar as a sign that things in the economy for the second half of the year don't look all too hot.

Markets are now open and the first ticks for mlps are down. The index is down nearly 2 points and that trip down to 350 looks doable today if selling gets a little more serious. Crude is down and nat gas is down as well this morning.

MLPS are selling off now after being up this morning by over a point and change on the index. The overall market was down and made a rally attempts on the dow but the nasdaq never recovered and now it looks like sellers may take control this afternoon.

Atlas Pipeline (APL) is down 1.80 as the days biggest loser after Friday's big gains. Most mlps are down major fractions now. Nustar (NS) Markwest (MWE) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Holly Partners (HEP) are leading the way. Looks like 360 is not holding so eyes should next be focused on the 350 level.

MLPS READY FOR BREAKDOWN!

Part of me puts up a headline like that hoping im wrong but Friday's action in MLPS and in the overall market was not a good one. MLPS actually opened up over 3 points before sellers quickly gained control and finished down 1.20 which was off the lows. So we start off the week at 360 on the mlp index and we are looking to open below that this morning. 350 is beginning to loom large. The overall market is holding up better as money comes out of energy stocks.


Crude oil and gasoline line are down 1.33 and 3 cents respectively this morning. RBOB gasoline peaked at 3.405 per gallon and has come off about 35 cents. So far pump prices here in the peoples republic of the state of NY have seen gasoline come off about 15 cents from the highs of around 4.30. It should never have gotten that high anyway but that's a story for another day.

Friday's standout performer in MLP land was Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) which was up over 4 dollars on solid earnings and the company announcing that it was doing more projects that would add to cash flow and require no new equity. Atlas Energy LP (ATLS) moved right along with it and closed up 2 dollars and change.

No news this morning on the tape but there is this Seeking Alpha story on Nustar (NS) and the insider buying that has been occuring. This time it might mean something. The stock has been a chronic underperformer among MLPS and has yet to take out its 2007 high as distribution growth has been rather stagnant.

Okay so it's Monday morning with stock, oil, and nat gas all lower on the morning. The dollar is down against most currencies and rates are flat to a touch lower.

i guess i'm not locked out of blogger as some folks have been. Looks like a google issue somewhere. Hope it gets resolved.

Back to normal blogging Monday as i am over this nasty headcold/laryngitis etc etc etc. Right now stock futures look soft ahead of the open.

Morgan stanley downgrades ETP to hold from buy. Stock down more than 2.

Down 7 points on the mlp index and energy stocks are taking it especially hard today. Crude oil is down 4 dollars and under 100 again. It looks like the top is in short term. Dow is down 150 at this time. Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down 2 and change and is the biggest loser. Oneok (OKS) is down nearly 2. And we have a list of sizable 1 point plus losses.

Fast money seems to be getting out of energy so last week's sell off is certainly not over. Watch the 360 level which is last week's lows.

IS THE MLP BULL MARKET OVER?

The headline is the question of the day certainly. Its easy to see when news items about possible taxation hit the tape and ever since then MLPS have sold down. The one day bounce of 6 points we got last week was just that, a one day bounce. It seems that now that we have this taxation threat looming overhead, whether real or percieved, it probably means that uncertainty now hangs over the group and any upticks should probably be sold until this gets sorted out. We're down 4 points this morning on the index and energy stocks as a whole are getting sold pretty hard so far today.

Raymond James has a habit of making mlps move when they make a ratings change and we are seeing that this morning with Inergy Partners (NRGY) which is down nearly 2 dollars on a downgrade from strong buy to buy. Lots of 1 point plus losers on the tape this morning including Alliance Resource (ARLP) Oneok (OKS) Markwest (MWE) and Sunoco Logstics (SXL). Many other mlps like Nustar (NS) Natural Resource (NRP) Williams (WPZ) and Atlas Energy LP (ATLS) are losing major fractions. And of course on a day like today the winners list is miniscule.

Crude oil inventory numbers came out bearish and that is causing the selloff to get extended. MLPS are now down 5 points and at the lows of the day. Nat gas is also down after being up yesterday.

Done with jury duty for 6 years (amen) but have been battling a severe head cold the last 5 days. Post wedding blues i guess. Not fun when your head is full of water and oak pollen is everywhere.

Mlps up a few ticks as I sit here in the jury room bored to death! Bringing my laptop tomorrow.

MARKETS AND COMMODITIES FIRM FOR NOW

Upticks are on the board this morning as we await the open. Commodities are getting a bounce this morning with oil up 2 dollar plus, nat gas is up, and stock futures are a little higher. MLPS had a nice 7 point plus rally Friday and actually finished near the highs of the day while the rest of the market came well off the highs by days end.
Last week's sell off took us down to 360 for the third time this year. The drop last week had quite a bit of momentum behind it and we will be looking to see if the Friday bounce was just that or we are going to go back up to the highs near 390. What we don't want to see today is a down close as that will probably mean the sell off isn't done yet.

Transmontaigne (TLP) announces earnings this morning with conference call to follow. Numbers look in line and the stock has been a solid performer. One other news item this morning comes with Regency Partners where Baird is starting the stock at an outperform and a 31 dollar target.

Lots of fun for me today as i have jury duty on top of dealing with a major league allergy attack. Guilty as charged..now send me home please?

MLPS OPEN HIGHER!

After yesterday's nearly6 point loss on the index and a close at 363. We did see a trip down below 360 at one point yesterday before a bounce late in the day. The momentum down has been pretty intense and given that tax threat, the speed of the drop should not be a huge surprise.

We have opened up 2 points on the index as the overall market opens up over 100 points. Drivers this morning on individual issues include upgrades by Citigroup on Altas Pipeline Partners (APL) and Oneok (OKS). Citi is raising its target on Oneok to 97 bucks!. Wells Fargo ups Natural Resource Partners (NRP) and that stock is up over a buck this morning. Buckeye Partners (BPL) puts up earnings numbers and a distribution increase. The stock is up fractionally. And Crosstex (XTEX) is up on earnings as it beat by a nickle. And as i finish typing the mlp index is up 7 points and back over 370!

Employment numbers were very good so stocks are up and rates are up. Crude which crashed yesterday is down fractionally today but nat gas is up 1%. Yields are higher on the jobs number. Looks like we are going to undo yesterday's losses today and maybe a little bit more .

Crude and nat gas are really getting hammered here. Crude is down 9 dollars or 8% and nat gas is down 7% on the day. MLPS still off the lows but still down over 7 points on the index.

MLPS down 7 points on the index after being off 9 at the lows of the day. Suburban Propane (SPH) put up earnings but mentioned that macro economic conditions are causing issues. Stock is down 3 dollars as the days biggest loser. Lots of 1 to 2 point losses on the board and earnings news not acting as a catylist for higher prices. Crude is down nearly 6% and nat gas is down sharply as well.

Okay im getting close to my derby pick. Im am liking Nehro!

We have taken out the lows of yesterday at the open and it looks like a trip to the 360 level is going to happen. The bigger support i believe is around 350. The support lines have not held. The 200 day moving average is at 355. The mlp index is down around 7 points shortly after the open.

RATES TAKING A MOVE LOWER!

Looks another one of those critical spots on the chart for the 10 year has developed as we are pretty much at the very bottom of the range we've been in since December. For all the talk of inflation the bond market has not broken out to new highs and has pretty much treaded water while commodities have moved higher and higher. If the bond market vigilantees are around they sure are being quiet about it.

MLPS of course have benefited as rates have gone sideways and as the companies themselves have done a good job of getting back on track since 2008. The distributions continue to move up and the average yield has moved back toward the historical range of 2 to 3 points above treasuries. Earnings this morning driving news in many mlps. Exterran Partners (EXLP) puts up earnings this morning as well as Williams Partners (WPZ). Williams is highlighting a 62% increase in distributable cash flow. El Paso (EPB) is also putting up earnings which show an increase of 67% of distributable cash flow. And Targa Resources (TRGP) and Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) rounds out the earnings parade this morning.

Fractionation is the word de jour and a trinity of companies is building a new one! And the father of mlps is getting bigger this morning as Kinder Morgan (KMP) is buying midstream assets from Petrohawk.

Cramer has reassured the group what has been mentioned on this blog by a few of us...that is that the prospect of MLPS getting taxed has almost no chance of happening. And when you think about it he is right. Too many interests in Congress on both sides of the aisle will prevent that from happening. Maybe the trip down to 364.95 on the index was the climax low of the sell off from 390.

Stock futures are selling off after a rise in the jobless claims number which was higher than advertised. Energy stocks are selling off as well so look for MLPs to have a strong headwind this morning as trading gets underway. Oil is down nearly 3% and nat gas is also down about 1% as nat gas numbers are due out at 10:30am. The european central bank kept rates steady at 1.25%.

11 points down on the mlp index and there are 1 to 2 point losses in just about every major mlp and every one in the group is down. That trip down to 350 is coming in a big hurry as investors flee the taxation threat. If this does not come to pass than it is probably a great buying opportunity but then again we all know what happened to the Canadian Royal Trusts a few years ago when the tax threat became a reality.

EV Partners (EVEP) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are down 3 points. Williams (WPZ) Markwest (MWE) Atlas Energy LP (ATLS) and Oneok (OKS) are down 2 each. And there is a long list of mlps losing 1 to 2 points on the day.

The dow is down 100 points and energy stocks as a whole are selling off so there are lots of headwinds which indicate that a bounce from here is not in the cards.

2 DAY CORRECTION WIPES OUT 2 WEEKS OF GAINS!

The uptrend is still intact but today may be an important day technically for mlps as they straddle rising support lines yet a gain. I have been maintaining that 350 is the place to watch for a breakdown so as long as that holds, the longer term uptrend is safe. However this news of the Obama Administration perhaps going after partnerships is not sitting well with investors. Of course its just talk and we dont see a final proposal yet. But i have to believe

Another 5 points have come off the mlp index today as that tax story is getting legs apparently or at least profit taking after a big run is underway and right through the ex distribution cycle. Is the move in mlps a signal that rates are about to embark in another leg up? That might be a bit of a stretch since the move from the mid 3s to the mid 4s on the long end didn't do much to scare investors. Energy stocks as a whole are selling off today so there is another headwind for the group.

Lots of 1 point plus losses on the board in a host of issues. However Holly Partners (HEP) is up 1.49 on no particular news item that i could find. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is down 2.33 after i highlighted this morning with its earnings, which apparently were already baked into the cake. Boardwalk Partners (BWP) is down 1.50 on downgrades by Raymond James and UBS.

ATLAS PIPELINE PARTNERS EARNINGS!

It wasn't that long ago (last August) that you could have had Atlas Pipeline Partners for under 14 bucks a share. Today we sit in the mid 30s as the company has restructured itself, shed its debt and increased its distributable cash flow aggressively. Today the company announces earnings and some other changes that will continue to increase distributable cashflow. The company is almost (but not quite) back to its old pre 2008 highs. Another 10 points on the stock price and we're there. Its hard to hold in the bad times but it paid off for this mlp.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is also making news this morning as it is expanding its pipeline in Eagle Ford Shale by 80 miles. UBS is cutting Boardwalk Partners (BWP) to hold from buy after its earnings yesterday which were a bit sub-par.

Markets are a little softer this morning ahead of the open with energy leading the way. Crude is down a dollar and change and and nat gas is up a few ticks. MLPS took a hit yesterday on news that the Obama Administration is readying a proposal to tax MLPS which makes absolutely no sense. As pointed out by one of our regular readers, this administration is doing everything to discourage new supply of energy by pushing money toward alternatives. Here is what it boils down to. It costs 22 cents per kilowatt hr to get energy through solar. It costs 6 cents per hour with coal. Now is the administration going to make energy cheaper by raising the coal cost to 23 cents per hr? The bottom line is alternative energy continues to be years away from practical use and expensive compared to everything else. Meanwhile we're paying 4.20 for regular here in the people's republic of the state of N.Y. Taxing mlps will yield very little money relatively speaking and discourage expansion of infrastructure. What do you think will happen to energy prices if we have no way of getting it from where it is to where it needs to be?

More on the possibility of MLPS being taxed.

Dow up 11 points with mlps down 5.

Looks like that MLP tax threat is taking its toll. The index is now down over 5 points and there are numerous losers of 1 point or more. Energy is down as is the overall market as the tape is going soft in a hurry.

Sorry for the post dis-order from earlier. i put some posts up last night and saved it on the same page so this morning's post appears as if i did it last night. Bottom line is its all straightened out.

MLPS are down right now off 2 points on the index while markets are generally higher. There weren't any issues going ex-distribution that i saw so after an initial pop higher over 390 we are down just under 388. Not sure if that Baltimore Sun story from over the weekend has anything to do with the profit taking.

Boardwalk Partners (BWP) is down 1 on earnings which came in a little light even though they nudged up the distribution. Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down 1 and Magellan (MMP) is down just under a points and these three lead the losers list. A fair amount of mlps are showing fractional gains and Holly Partners (HEP) is up 71 cents as today's big winner at least so far.

Nat gas is holding on to last week's gains so there seems to be more upside here but as we all know this market is not to be trusted.

BIN LADEN DEAD!
MARKETS OFF THE HIGHS!

Markets have been up all night but have come off just a bit from their peaks on the Bin Laden news. There is much news coverage and blog commentary available at Memeorandum but we have market impact views from CNBC this morning in case you missed it.

Then of course as in all these things there are the unintended consequences as Dennis Gartman points out. Could there be some reprisals against the U.S.? That could be the reason behind why the gold market is almost back to the flat line. Crude oil is down a buck and change which is no big deal.

After missing most of last week due to the wedding (not the royal one but my daughter's) MLPS are on the move and are going to start the day at new all time highs. The latest push may be coming from of all places nat gas which has made another bottom test and attempting to make their way back to the top of the range. Nat gas is up pre open this morning.
MLPS are pushing toward the 400 level and this morning we have some news items. Boardwalk increased its distribution and announces earnings. Also we have Citigroup making some moves as it is raising target prices on Williams Partners (WMZ) Western Gas (WES) DCP Midstream (DPM) and Chesapeake Energy (CHKM). Usually these moves don't make for big price changes in the stocks but we will of course monitor the situation. Certainly mlps will open higher.
The chart continues to look good and there is no sign of a top.

Last Friday we had a few items of note including Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) sweetening the deal to buy Duncan Partners (DEP) which is a nice thing for share holders. Looks like an extra buck and change coming. And then we have UBS making noise about mlps.
UBS came out Friday aggressively recommending mlps especially those in the natgas space.

The Baltimore Sun ran this story on Sunday about the treasury department contemplating taxation of MLPS. The piece does point out that such a proposal will probably meet with stiff opposition from Congress but it will be interesting to see whether this story has a bite this morning as mlps open for trade.

So we will work through the obvious up open and then look around to see whether sellers come in. News events like this tend to be euphoric at first and then followed by a gradual fade away.

THE ROYALE WEDDING!

Father and daughter dancing together!

Father singing at mass to daughter and son in law!

Family with the next 2 daughters in line!

THE WEDDING!

Hey everyone...been busy getting ready for my daughter's wedding which is tomorrow. Thats why not much posting this week. The fed meeting has come and gone. Markets continue higher. Even nat gas is breaking out higher!! MLPS at all time highs. All is right with the world.

i will have my head back in the game next week. Meanwhile look for pics tomorrow!

EASTER MONDAY, THE FED, AND A WEDDING!

These are the highlights of the week ahead. Its the day after Easter and it looks like a slightly positive start to the day. MLPS have nothing on the news front but we do have Wells Fargo upgrading Linn Energy (LINE) to outperform from market perform and Baird is starting Breitburn at outperform and a 25 buck price target. Also this morning Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) splits 2 for 1 so dont worry as the stock is not going to be down 33 dollars.

The other focus this week will be the fed meeting which ends with a press conference on Wednesday after they announce they are doing nothing. This weekend the NY Times pretty much admitted that the fed policy of keeping rates near zero has not worked. Here is some interesting commentary and yes, somehow Sarah Palin managed to figure this out far sooner than economists and the NY Times.

No other news on the docket this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Which leads us to the most important event this week...the WEDDING...and its not the one in England either. My oldest daughter is getting married Friday which makes this a very busy week for me. So if i disappear for awhile you will know why!

KINDER MORGAN, ONEOK HIKE PAYOUTS!

Earnings came out after the close for Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and as usual there were no real surprises and they hiked the payout for the 5th straight quarter and in 40 of the last 55 quarters. Oneok LP (OKS) also hiked its payout one cent to 1.15 from 1.14. In both cases its probably already baked into the stock price so i wouldn't expect much movement. Citigroup is on the horn this morning and it raises Sunoco Logistics (SXL) to buy from hold and takes its price target to 97 bucks. Citigroup also cuts Nustar (NS) to hold from buy and lowers the target there to 72 from 75. This mlp has been a chronic underperformer. And Transmontaigne (TLP) gets its target raised a buck to 38 while being kept at a hold. Sunoco Logistics is bid up 1 in the premarket. And Suburban Propane (SPH) announces its payout of .8525 (you got to love 1/4 cents).

The overall market this morning is taking its cue from excellent earnings that just continue to roll in above expectations. All the dow components this morning reporting beat estimates so stock futures are stronger again today after yesterday's powerful up day. Crude and nat gas are higher with nat gas inventory numbers out at 10:30am. Markets will probably trade firm into the close ahead of a three day Easter weekend.

Busy here around the house as daughter number 1 is getting married in 6 days plus Easter preps!!! Thank God we don't have 6 dollar gas yet.
But it could be soon if this CNBC guest this morning is correct.

Targa Resources Corp (TRGP) is the one doing the secondary and not Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) but both are up and TRGP is up sharply....2 points worth.

MLPS at new all time highs up 3.60 at 383.33 as of this post with the dow up over 200 points. EV Partners (EVEP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Enbridge (EEP) are all up over a buck each and leading the winners list. Many mlps are on the new highs list and most are up solid fractions.

ALL TIME HIGHS???

MLPS are poised for a big move this morning along with the entire stock market. Earnings news last night and this morning have been very good and well above expectations. Companies are raising their outlooks. So Monday's drop on the S&P "warning" becomes nothing more than statistical noise as the dow futures are up close to 150 this morning.


Both charts show that the uptrends remain essentially intact. Support continues to hold and markets are behaving pretty much the way they do when bulls are in charge. Rallies are runaway and selloffs are sharp and relatively shallow and everyone is afraid to buy.

Kinder Morgan (KMP) will announce its earnings after the close today. Crosstex Energy (XTEX) hikes its payout to 29 cents and on the corporation's common stock (XTXI) the payout goes to 9 cents a share. Thats a nice 12% hike from last quarter. Stocks are bid up this morning. Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) is doing a public offering of stock. It was priced this morning at 31.73. Stock is already trading a dollar above that.

Take a look at this interview transcript of Credit Suisse Analyst Yves Siegel who explains quite well why MLPS are a good investment in this enviornment we're in. He also addresses any Washington tax threat on MLPS and why it will go nowhere. Its a good point to realize that these companies would not generate much tax revenue and since they are the infrastructure builders, why would you want to go after them since they are so vital for the US energy futures.

Strong open coming shortly and then lets see how much followthrough comes in.

OH THE NOISE!!!!

We're hearing (and seeing in some cases) sound and fury about the S&P possible downgrade of US soverign debt but whether it signifies nothing or something remains to be seen. On fist glance yesterday interest rates sky rocketed and markets drop nearly 250 on the dow. Then as the day wore on bonds rallied and stocks came off the lows on the notion that the threat of a downgrade was a good thing because it give politicans politcal cover to actually do something in Washington. Its hard to see how S&P has any credibility given the fact that they (and Moody's) stood by while banks sold mortgage debt with AAA ratings that turned out to be worthless. The Atlantic pretty much sums it up in their piece yesterday. And then of course we have those who believe everything is somehow the fault of Republicans. In the end the US can print money as long as they own a printing press. Now the cost of that money is a different issue and Bill Gross of Pimco addressed that yesterday. In the meantime maybe S&P can use their anal-ysis to tell me who is going to win the Kentucky Derby in 2 1/2 weeks.


In the end the cost of money will go higher one way or the other. If the US doesn't raise the debt ceiling, those rates will move up rather quickly. Meantime markets this morning are focusing away from that and looking at earnigns which for the most part are very good. MLPS are quiet this morning so far with no news so far on the tape. Yesterday Transmontaigne (TLP) announced its payout and we will have a symbol change for Atlas LP which was formerly Atlas Holdings (AHD). The new symbol is ATLS which was the old symbol for Atlas Energy which was bought by Chevron. Re-read it if i lost you. Copano (CPNO) announces an expansion of its processing facilities as this MLP continues to perform well. No other headlines so far this morning.

Stock futures are up. Crude is down, nat gas is up, bond yields are higher and Euro markets are higher. Missed this on CNBC last week on what Ray Jimmy thinks about MLPS. The mlp index closed down 2 and change but off the lows. The index remains within a days trade striking distance of new all time highs and the recent trading range just gets tighter and tighter.
350 still holds on the downside and 382-383 is the upside wall. So we march on to the open. Sorry about no posts yesterday. Holy Week, Easter, and a wedding to prepare for!!!

Spectra Energy (SEP) gets a neutral rating from Zachs. Stock is up a nickle.

MLPS are up 1 and change and hovering around 380. Buckeye (BPL) leads the way higher up over 2 points on the UBS upgrade and perhaps on the idea that there will be no more stock supply now that the offering is done. And for the group it doesn't hurt that bonds are rallying with the 30 year at 4.49% and the 10 year at 3.41%.

Btw i like Elite Alex tomorrow in the Arkansas Derby.

MLPS HOLDING SUPPORT FOR NOW!

The last week or so have seen some failed rally attempts to new all time highs as well as failed breakdown attempts through support. So essentially we have been going sideways. Overall markets have tried the same thing this week in what for now has been a rather orderly correction. We're getting ready for the usual slew of distribution announcements that are coming. As usual with mlps its buy the rumor sell the news and the payout hikes seem always to be baked into the cake. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) broke out to a new highs yesterday.
The latest upleg seems to co-incide with the Eagle Rock Energy Partners asset purchase from a few days ago. Not sure why unless its a reminder to the markets that Atlas Pipeline is still undervalued. They are going to hike its payout faster than most mlps and that is driving prices higher. Others in the group are coming out of the cloud of a secondary as Buckeye Partners (BPL) did one yesterday at 59.41. This stock has not done well at all in the last year when compared to others.
The stock touched 70 back in November and its been down since thanks to its selling shares with its takeover of Buckeye Holdings even though it was not dilutive. Now that its done its offering UBS this morning upgrades Buckeye to a buy from neutral and the stock is bid up this morning in the pre market.

CPI comes in below expectations (once you strip out all the inflation) and the market appears to be yawning a bit at this. Bonds are higher this morning after the number. Stock futures are flat. Nat gas rallied yesterday on its inventory numbers and its looking to add to its gain today. Crude is down a little. The dollar is up a little against the euro.

Sad news yesterday for long time CNBC watchers as Joe Battapaglia died of a heart attack at the age of 55.



The tribute was done by Larry Kudlow.

Leon Cooperman a.k.a. Mr Mary Hart is a big investor in mlps. He was on CNBC this morning in case you missed it. Talked about markets and hedgefunds. Didnt mention mlps but always worth a play.

Markets back above water and mlps up 2 after being up 3 early and then up less than 1.

MLPS are up nicely, nearly 3 points on the index. The overall tape looks a bit subdued and energy stocks as a while are flat right now. The tape feels like it might do a fade later today but we will let that play itself out.

Eagle Rock (EROC) ran over 12 and now is up 1.30+ at 11.65 as of this post. EV Partners (EVEP) is up 1. Atlas Energy LP (AHD) which is the old Atlas Holdings (AHD) is up 1.69 and is the groups biggest winner. Most mlps are showing nice fractional gains. Only a handful of mlps on the unchanged or off a few pennies list.

Crude is up slightly after inventory numbers which was bullish for gasoline. Nat gas is up 1.5% on the day so far.

EAGLE ROCK COMES BACK TO LIFE!

While almost all mlps have recovered the losses of the bear market of 2008 there have been one or 2 that have lagged behind. This morning Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) is looking to join the land of the living again. The company is making a major acquisition this morning which not only more than doubles production, but the company will raise its distribution to a rate of 75 cents annual beginning in q2 of 2011 and projecting going to a buck annual in 2012. The stock is up 52 cents in the pre market.

A few bullish pieces out there this morning as Plains Natural Gas Storage (PNG) gets a bullish goose from Seeking Alpha. Since no one is using nat gas it has to be stored someplace. Since its ipo the stock hasn't done much. And Motley Fool tells us that based on margins, Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) is doing just fine thank you.

MLPS lost 3 yesterday but came way off the lows which were down around minus 8. The stock is sitting right on important support in the stairstep uptrend that has seen us take trips down into the rising moving average support lines.
365 on the MLP index is an important inflection point and ultimately 350 is "the" support level in my view. But no worries about seeing either one of those levels today (at least based on this morning's open) as stock futures are up 80 points on the dow which gets back most of yesterday's lows. Crude sold off hard yesterday but its up this morning as is nat gas now after being lower earlier. And interest rates are up on stronger than forecast retail sales ex gasoline. MLPS are within striking distance of getting back to all time highs but we seem to be failing when we get there. Let the morning trades begin!

ARE WE TOPPING OUT???

I know i have asked this question before and at least so far, each answer has been another leg higher. But we are faced here with a rally that started back last September and it could be getting long in the tooth in here. MLPS seem to have hit a wall at around the 382 level. Granted a few days of selling does not a downtrend make but with rates off their recent lows, you have to wonder whether we are setting up for a selloff in prices. Top building is usually a process and not an event.

Targa Resources (TRGP) and Targa Resources Partners (NGLS) are the first to announce quarterly dividend and distribution payouts and both companies are hiking from the previous quarter. And Plains All American (PAA) boosts their payout by 3%. They also say earnings will come in on the high end of guidance. And Genesis Energy (GEL) hikes its payout by nearly 2%.
And with all the payout hikes the question is, are dividend (or distribution) growth stocks a good bet over the long haul or vastly over-rated. This Seeking Alpha piece addresses that question. Long read with lots of data to pour through but worth the time.

This morning we have stock futures down ahead of the open and energy stocks are lower as well so look for MLPS to trade lower at the open. Crude is lower but nat gas has now rallied back to unchanged after yesterday's reversal. Nat gas held 4 dollars so the base building process appears to be continuing. Rates are lower this morning as markets sell off.

I posted this last week but in case you haven't seen it...take a live look (24/7) from this camera of this nesting pair of eagles and their 3 babies. It is truly fascinating and captivating! This morning both parents were feeding the eaglets.



Yesterday was a rough day for me running back and forth from work to the emergency room where my dad was taken for heart issues. He is fine and going home today. That and a wedding in 17 days as my daughter gets married is making for a very hectic existence. Sorry for the missed monday morning post.

Sorry guys and gals. At hospital emergency room. Will post later.

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SHUTDOWN COUNTDOWN!

We are counting down to midnight when the federal government may shut down if there is no budget deal. Frankly judging by the action in equities its really a non event since in the end the markets know this silly poker game will eventually get worked out. But if they can't agree on chump change, what happens in a few weeks when they have to tackle the debt ceiling? The latest headlines can be found here with commentary here. Just be sure to scroll down on the page if its not near the top.

Meanwhile the treasury market may be getting ready to take off on another upleg in yields after trading sideways since Decemeber. Yield markets are still digesting the ECB rate hike and the prospect that the Fed may be getting ready to do the same later this year.

And yield markets may also be sniffing out the possibility that the debt ceiling is going to become a real battle. Bond markets may be on the verge of exerting pressure on politicians to do what they need to do. Otherwise the cost of money will go up in a big way and very quickly.

MLPS are right at new all time highs and are following equity markets higher. Stock futures are higher this morning and rates are up 5 basis points on the long end. Start keeping an eye on what happens if we see a breakout above 4.80% and 3.70% on the 10 year. At some point the yield spread may begin forcing money out of mlps. So far we are not at that magical point. Meanwhile crude is moving ever higher up above $111.00 this morning while nat gas sits at $4.00 and doing its usual immitation of going nowhere fast. No news on the mlp front and no upgrades or downgrades.

Forbes has a positive piece on Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) as it argues the company is completely shielded from oil price fluctuations. Of course if they start selling all energy stocks one day , or if crude ever stops going up, it may not make a difference whether your exposed or not.

THE SHUTDOWN????

The clocks of course are ticking for the looming government shutdown thanks to these bozo's in Washington who can't even agree that the sun rises in the east. Of course being the age of twitter you might want a twitter shutdown clock! Why not be constantly reminded of the time remaining. Markets don't seem to be too concerned about this as futures are pretty firm ahead of the open. MLPS didn't do much yesterday as we hover near all time highs and the new day will probably put us over the top at least in the early going. Rates are higher this morning and we will of course keep an eye on crude inventory numbers at 10:30am.

No news on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades.

AT THE TOP OF THE MOUNTAIN!

Yesterday's fractionally higher close has us right at new all time highs for the index which is a nice way to start a Tuesday morning. Not much happening this morning with mlps. We have this Zachs piece on Williams Partners (WPZ) arguing that its yield and growth prospects look good. Also this morning Teekay LNG Partners (TGP) is a 3.7 million share offering and that has the stock down nearly 2 dollars in the pre market. Not much else is happening. The market's attention is focused on the Texas Instruments/National Semiconductor deal this morning. Stock futures are a little lower along with crude and nat gas. Rates are flat to a few ticks lower and the dollar is rallying a little against the Euro and yen. Thursday the European Central Bank will be meeting and it looks like they are going to hike rates at this meeting.

Motley Fool is doing an analysis of Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) and compares it to a few other mlps. They actually do a decent breakdown of gross margins and a few other metrics..though in the end we all know its about DCF (distributable cash flow). Still worth the read. Not much else on the tape this morning as we await the open.

NEW ALL TIME HIGHS IN MLP LAND!

Friday's up close over 380 puts us in the area of new all time highs (or reasonably close enough) as the overall market breaksout to new recovery highs. The second quarter got underway with higher prices at least for the first day. Now begins the first full week of the quarter and we have some questions on the table as far as what will happen in the next 3 months.



There is no doubt that the trend is your friend and there has been little to break the overall uptrend. The questions remain pretty much the same. Rising crude so far has actually had a positive impact on the markets especially energy stocks. We are still waiting to see whether or if rising interest rates have an impact on stock prices. Rates especially on the long end are hovering below recovery highs but have been going pretty much sideways for the last 2 months. Government shutdowns, nuclear radiation and Middle East government meltdowns have done nothing to derail this bull. Maybe someday they will but for now we're just going to continue to move merrily higher.

MLPS are at that point in the quarter where companies are telling us when earnings are going to come out and not much else. There are no news headlines this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Stock futures are a little higher along with crude and most overseas markets. Rates are a couple of ticks above the Friday close. Nat gas of course is lower before the open and the dollar is lower.




During this MLP rally there have been a couple of the major mlps that have been left a little behind the rest of the pack. Nustar (NS) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) are 2 mlps that have not been growing the distribution on a quarterly basis like many of the others. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) recent deal might lead to a resumption of distribution growth later this year. Nustar (NS) has also done nothing but go sideways recently and remains a few points below all time highs. If these companies get back on the road to hiking payouts, these 2 mlps could take over leadership. Something perhaps to put on the radar.

Buckeye Partners (BPL) has done nothing but trend downward since it hit 70 back in early November. Since then it bought out Buckeye Holdings (BGH) along with selling shares related to the takeover. At some point all that will get digested and this mlp could move to the front of the line among the leaders. All of this assumes that the mlp uptrend continues in the second quarter.

BTW just letting everyone know that i have a daughter in the school play this week and another daughter getting married at the end of this month. So posting may have some sporadic interruptions over the next 4 weeks. Busy Busy Busy!!!