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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Sometimes when the brokerages tell you to sell..its already to late. That would explain the 2 point gain in Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) after getting cut to reduce by UBS this morning. I guess the market had enough taking this one down from 64 to 51 in a hurry.

Meanwhile the MLP index got all of yesterdays losses back and is up 3 right now. Constellation (CEP)Buckeye LP (BPL), Alliance LP (ARLP) Natural Resource (NRP)and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) are all up 1 or more. Lots of nice fractional gains in Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP), Boardwalk Partners (BWP) Ferrellgas (FGP) Martin Midstream (MMLP) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and many others.

Some ex-distribution stocks are down today like Linn Energy (LINN) Crosstex LP (XTEX) and a few others but nothing more than fractional losses.
RBC repeats its buy on Boardwalk Partners (BWP) and raises its price target from 40 to 42. Weird trading on this one yesterday after earnings where the stock opened flat...dropped 3 points and than rallied back to almost even.
FALLING KNIVES AVAILABLE TO CATCH
PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION!

There are falling knives and then there are missles crashing to earth. I would say these examples are the first but might feel like the second. The MLP index yesterday looked like it was staring into the abyss as it was down over 5 points and not rallying with the rest of the market before cutting its losses to -3 by days end. Now one good sign for the overall market is that big selloffs have usually run their course when they get around to selling us and with stock futures strong this morning i would expect MLPS to move up today. And while the chart of the index isn't exactly inspiring we did not take out that 320 floor so there is hope here.


There was one stock probably responsible for this yesterday and that was Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which was down well over 4 points. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) was down about a point and a half.



Both stocks have had fabulous runs. Energy Transfer (both) continue to react to the FERC charges of market manipulation and the prospect for a triple digit million dollar fine. And you can expect more selling today as UBS securities cuts both stocks to reduce from neutral. You don't see recommendations to "reduce" (reduce for those of you not familiar with brokerage doublespeak means sell) in this group too often. And while that probably means that the bulk of the selling may have already occured I will be staying away from these 2 other than for a day trade until all this FERC stuff gets settled.

Earnings are out this morning from Holly Partners (HEP) which look quite good on face value. Revenues were up 50%. and profit more than tripled! No other corporate developements this morning and so far no other upgrades or downgrades.

The Energy complex is higher this morning and Natural gas leading the way up 13 cents after yesterdays nice move. The tropics are heating up with a depression approaching Bermuda and a potential depression approaching the Carribbean. This seems to be reminding the market place that the real hurricane season begins now. Stock futures are very strong and the Dow looks to open 100 points higher. We should move higher today Energy Transfer not withstanding.

Monday, July 30, 2007

Energy Transfer Partners holders can read about the FERC case here. Other related links provided here. Much to read and digest.

Losses cut to less than 3 points on the index at the close. Waiting for after market headlines.
MLP index making a run in the last 30 minutes as it is finally cutting its losses...down just 3 after being off over 5 at the low.
Looks like Energy Transfer Partners is facing a sizable fine from FERC. Check out the Yahoo message board which is ahead of the game on this and thanks to Carlos for pointing this out to me! The man keeps me honest!

MLPS continue to suffer in here today as the rest of the market is turning. The dow is up 70 points. Since i trade some of these i have to tell you this has been one crazy day as issues are down 2 points one minute and flat the next. Check out Boardwalk Partners (BWP) as a good for instance...or Linn Energy and Legacy which opened up over 1 point each and then sold to unch or even below the flat line. Constellation Energy (CEP) is today's big winner up 2 points.
Not sure what is happening but the MLP index is down over 5 and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is down over 4 points. Volume approaching 1 million shares. Looks like somebody is throwing this one out the window.
The MLP index is down over 4 points and has been down since the open. My usual rule is when they get around to selling us is usually at the end of a broad market sell off..we'll see if that means a solid up close today for the market overall. Meanwhile Energy Transfer Partners (ETP)is down over 3 points today. No news but over 600k shares have traded. EV Partners i(EVEP)s down nearly 2. Plains All American(PAA) Energy Transfer Equity(ETE) and Markwest Hydrocarbon(MWP) all down 1 or more. And the list of fractional losers is a mile long. Boardwalk Partners (BWP) earnings drove the stock down nearly 3 points and then it recovered back to almost even and is now down nearly 1 again.

There were lots of winners early by a point or more but almost all of them have given up the ghost. Calumet (CLMT) remains up 1 and there are a small scattering of fractional winnners.

UNG the etf for natural gas is up over 1 as nat gas rallies back to 6.50ish.
Some breaking news as we have earnings on Nustar (NS) which were very good and a hefty distribution increase for unit holders. And of course what is good for Nustar is also good for Nustar Holdings. Also Wachovia is upping Legacy Reserves (LGCY) to outperform from market perform. Magellan Midstream is investing money to expand one of its pipelines.

Natural gas up nearly 4% to 6.42 this morning. Should mean a nice up open for the UNG.
EARNINGS FROM BOARDWALK AND ALLIANCE
NATURAL GAS SHARPLY HIGHER THIS MORNING
AND OF COURSE WHERE TO FROM HERE?

As a rule i like down opens after big sell off days since that has the chance to wash out all the sellers. Not sure if that means a bottom but for sure the stock market is the tail waggin the mlp dog. The AMZ mlp index is selling off and coming back to the 89 day moving average and i would think we will touch it this morning at the open or perhaps even go through it. 325.83 is the magic number


Then the next level to watch is the 320 level where the last 2 short corrections went to before the last upleg and breakout to 340. The 144 day moving average is way down at 316 and a break to that level in my view would call my prediction of 370 to 400 on the index into serious question. But i will let things playout before calling an end to this fabulous bull run that began last October.

Meanwhile this morning some earnings news on Boardwalk Partners as it reports a nice increase in earnings and it also is raising the distribution by a penny.

Also earnings out this morning for Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP ) and Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP). And we have distribution increases for those 2. Enterprise Holdings posts its numbers
and it continues to just move along although distributable cash flow is 1.0 times which i is borderline in my view. You would like to see it a little higher but you have look for distortions and Dan Duncan always seems to know what he is doing. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning.

The energy complex is down this morning with the exception of Natural gas which is rallying 16 cents as of 8:38 so UNG will open up at least 1 dollar this morning. Chart looks like its sold out so looking for a rally back at least to 44 where the 34 day moving average line sits right now.


While i've been writing my post stock futures have continued to strengthen so it looks like an up open now. Let see how they handle it.

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Asia seems to be holding up very well in all of this...losses are contained and some markets like China are actually trading higher so at least so far there is no worldwide contagion underway. Stock futures are higher by a couple of points as of 9:32pm. Crude oil is a little lower. Natural gas is about 6 cents higher. No corporate headlines of note so far.
At 8pm we have a 2 point gain in stock futures and nat gas is up just under 8 cents.
Its early but the opening ticks on the S&P Futures are higher by about a point. At least no early collapse but lets see what happens as the evening progresses. Oil is down 33 cents in early trade while nat gas is higher by 6 cents.
Just to let everybody know...given the market situation for monday morning i will be monitoring the electronic futures market which starts trading at 6pm this evening eastern time. You can access quotes by scrolling down to the second set of blogs and click on any of the futures links. The quotes are delayed by 30 minutes but at least we'll have some early indications. Also should any headlines break on WSJ or elsewhere i will post on those as well. Should be a fascinating open Monday morning.

Friday, July 27, 2007

Dow clawing back...just minus 50 now and MLPS also coming off their lows. Regency (RGNC) is up 2 after doing their offering. Somebody wants their stock! Gainers list is picking up. Constellation Partners (CEP) is up 1. And there are more stocks showing fractional gains.

Last hour should prove interesting.
Some news this afternoon..Atlas Pipeline Partners(APL) completes its purchase from Anandarko...it had been delayed 2 weeks ago but all problems were solved. It also repeated guidance regarding future distributions. Also Penn Virginia Holdings(PVG) announces an increase in its distribution. Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP)boosts its distribution and so does Magellan Midstream Holdings (MGG).

The MLP index is down 4 points but its off the lows and remember there are ex-distributions in here today distorting the selloff.

Markets are well off their lows with the dow down (just) 92 points. Energy is rallying and Natural gas is back over 6 dollars. Could be the bottom is in?
I'm guessing that Europe is dumping before they close for the day. Once they close we may take em back. MLPS are 4 points lower. There are quite a few x-distributions today so bear that in mind as that has not been factored out of the price. Regency (RGNC) and Holly Partners (HEP) lead the list of winners up about 1 each.
What ever they did not throw out the window yesterday we're seeing them do it at the open today. The MLP index opens down 4.50. The question becomes whether they are done in here and start to take em back higher. Energy Transfer (ETP) and Oneok LP (OKS) are both down 2 points. 1 point minus or more in Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) Atlas Resources (ATN) Duke Midstream (DPM), Teppco (TPP) and Martin Midstream (MMLP)

A few winners this morning with K-Sea (KSP) and Nustar (NS) both up 1 point or more. Eagle Rock (EROC) is a strong fractional winner as is Trans Montaigne (TLP).

Lets see if they stablize in here and try to rally em back. I like down opens better than up ones in these big selloff enviornments.
Looks like they priced the Regency (RGNC)Stock offering around 31.90. Also stock futures have come all the way back to the flat line after falling 12 points on the S&P.
Btw it happened yesterday and its happening again this morning but as stock futures sold off in the last hour so did the energy markets. Could mean nothing. 10 year down to 4.75%. MLPS should benefit from this.