Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Meanwhile the MLP index got all of yesterdays losses back and is up 3 right now. Constellation (CEP)Buckeye LP (BPL), Alliance LP (ARLP) Natural Resource (NRP)and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) are all up 1 or more. Lots of nice fractional gains in Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP), Boardwalk Partners (BWP) Ferrellgas (FGP) Martin Midstream (MMLP) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and many others.
Some ex-distribution stocks are down today like Linn Energy (LINN) Crosstex LP (XTEX) and a few others but nothing more than fractional losses.
PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION!
There are falling knives and then there are missles crashing to earth. I would say these examples are the first but might feel like the second. The MLP index yesterday looked like it was staring into the abyss as it was down over 5 points and not rallying with the rest of the market before cutting its losses to -3 by days end. Now one good sign for the overall market is that big selloffs have usually run their course when they get around to selling us and with stock futures strong this morning i would expect MLPS to move up today. And while the chart of the index isn't exactly inspiring we did not take out that 320 floor so there is hope here.

There was one stock probably responsible for this yesterday and that was Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which was down well over 4 points. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) was down about a point and a half.


Both stocks have had fabulous runs. Energy Transfer (both) continue to react to the FERC charges of market manipulation and the prospect for a triple digit million dollar fine. And you can expect more selling today as UBS securities cuts both stocks to reduce from neutral. You don't see recommendations to "reduce" (reduce for those of you not familiar with brokerage doublespeak means sell) in this group too often. And while that probably means that the bulk of the selling may have already occured I will be staying away from these 2 other than for a day trade until all this FERC stuff gets settled.
Earnings are out this morning from Holly Partners (HEP) which look quite good on face value. Revenues were up 50%. and profit more than tripled! No other corporate developements this morning and so far no other upgrades or downgrades.
The Energy complex is higher this morning and Natural gas leading the way up 13 cents after yesterdays nice move. The tropics are heating up with a depression approaching Bermuda and a potential depression approaching the Carribbean. This seems to be reminding the market place that the real hurricane season begins now. Stock futures are very strong and the Dow looks to open 100 points higher. We should move higher today Energy Transfer not withstanding.
Monday, July 30, 2007
Losses cut to less than 3 points on the index at the close. Waiting for after market headlines.
MLPS continue to suffer in here today as the rest of the market is turning. The dow is up 70 points. Since i trade some of these i have to tell you this has been one crazy day as issues are down 2 points one minute and flat the next. Check out Boardwalk Partners (BWP) as a good for instance...or Linn Energy and Legacy which opened up over 1 point each and then sold to unch or even below the flat line. Constellation Energy (CEP) is today's big winner up 2 points.
There were lots of winners early by a point or more but almost all of them have given up the ghost. Calumet (CLMT) remains up 1 and there are a small scattering of fractional winnners.
UNG the etf for natural gas is up over 1 as nat gas rallies back to 6.50ish.
Natural gas up nearly 4% to 6.42 this morning. Should mean a nice up open for the UNG.
As a rule i like down opens after big sell off days since that has the chance to wash out all the sellers. Not sure if that means a bottom but for sure the stock market is the tail waggin the mlp dog. The AMZ mlp index is selling off and coming back to the 89 day moving average and i would think we will touch it this morning at the open or perhaps even go through it. 325.83 is the magic number

Then the next level to watch is the 320 level where the last 2 short corrections went to before the last upleg and breakout to 340. The 144 day moving average is way down at 316 and a break to that level in my view would call my prediction of 370 to 400 on the index into serious question. But i will let things playout before calling an end to this fabulous bull run that began last October.
Meanwhile this morning some earnings news on Boardwalk Partners as it reports a nice increase in earnings and it also is raising the distribution by a penny.
Also earnings out this morning for Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP ) and Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP). And we have distribution increases for those 2. Enterprise Holdings posts its numbers
and it continues to just move along although distributable cash flow is 1.0 times which i is borderline in my view. You would like to see it a little higher but you have look for distortions and Dan Duncan always seems to know what he is doing. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning.
The energy complex is down this morning with the exception of Natural gas which is rallying 16 cents as of 8:38 so UNG will open up at least 1 dollar this morning. Chart looks like its sold out so looking for a rally back at least to 44 where the 34 day moving average line sits right now.
While i've been writing my post stock futures have continued to strengthen so it looks like an up open now. Let see how they handle it.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Friday, July 27, 2007
Last hour should prove interesting.
The MLP index is down 4 points but its off the lows and remember there are ex-distributions in here today distorting the selloff.
Markets are well off their lows with the dow down (just) 92 points. Energy is rallying and Natural gas is back over 6 dollars. Could be the bottom is in?
A few winners this morning with K-Sea (KSP) and Nustar (NS) both up 1 point or more. Eagle Rock (EROC) is a strong fractional winner as is Trans Montaigne (TLP).
Lets see if they stablize in here and try to rally em back. I like down opens better than up ones in these big selloff enviornments.









