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Friday, February 29, 2008

After today' sorry tape with the dow down over 300; mlps at least kept their losses to under 1 % on the index.Big cap mlps took bigger hits then the smaller ones. I think we'll just pack it in and have a good weekend...you do the same!
Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI)blew away estimates of 4 cents...came in at 19 cents. Stocks are bid up in the pre market.

Regency (RGNC) also puts up earnings numbers this morning. Also some early trades in a few mlps which are unusual and don't always mean they will go in this direction. Constellation (CEP) is up 40 cents pre-open on one trade.
TERRIFIC CROSSTEX EARNINGS
AND WHERE TO FROM HERE?


Crosstex Energy (XTEX) posted earnings numbers this morning which really look excellent. Of course the market will tell us later today but we have revenues up 50% and the distribution coverage is a very high 1.61. Of course the outlook is what is important and the conference call is later this morning.
Yesterday was an interesting day as the nat gas inventory numbers sent it soaring along with oil. That coupled with E O G Resources (EOG)boosting its outlook which sent it's stock up 20 points...and suddenly anything gas or energy took off...and that include us lowly mlp holders. Follow through today might be nice but we'll have to chew through what will be a negative open for the overall tape. BTW on Wednesday one of the big brokerages downgraded EOG...nice call for someone who should be unemployed.


Charts are inconclusive here. Its sort of day to day in the markets overall and as long as that is the case MLPS can attempt to make progress. But we need to break out of this base and that means a close over 310 on the index. We're far away from there.

BTW the unholy trinity has violated its rule 2 days in a row. Looks like there is hope out there. No upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. Headlines as they break.s


Thursday, February 28, 2008

MLP index is now above 296.
MLPS are moving sharply higher as anything energy...and especially anything natural gas is up sharply. Let me put it this way. The unholy trinity is up! Constellation Energy (CEP) Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Copano (CPNO) are up 1 and change. Oneok LP (OKS) and Crosstex (XTXI) are up nearly 1 point.Fractional gains pretty much across the board. Just a couple of MLPS are lower including Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) which is down 67 cents for some reason and a few others are down pennies.

Looking for a strong last hour.
Linn at 23.65 x 23.75 in the pre market. Volume is 1900 shares.
BTW...ex items Linn earnigns were 37 cents which were 2 cents better than estimates.
LINN EARNINGS,
BOARDWALK COLLAPSES



What a disaster yesterday for Boardwalk Partners (BWP). You don't see moves like this very often but the stock was down over 3 points yesterday; reacting to this 10k filing which is citing cost overruns on its pipeline expansions, which may lead to more equity being issued, which means more dilution, which led to 2 downgrades, which resulted in the 3 point slicing. Lesson here is that there is no such thing as a risk free investment in MLP land. Now does it bounce a little in here or does this falling knife have more to go?

Speaking of falling knives Linn Energy (LINE) was one for such a long time but that stopped last week and the stock is up nearly 5 points of its low. Now we have earnings this morning whch when you strip through the headlines...actually look pretty decent. All the important numbers look good. We'll see if the market players see it the same way.

The other issue yesterday was the nearly 4 point decline in the MLP index but much of that was from the 2 stock offerings of Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) which was a big drag. Most mlps were flat to slightly lower. Still sitting above 290 on the index so that continues to provide the floor of this base which we have been building apparently since August. At least lets hope its a base and not a plank we're walking.

No other headlines this morning and nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Boardwalk Partners (BWP) is quite the horror show down 3 and change and below 25 as we head into the close.
The mlp index is down 3.50 and at the lows of the day but again the bulk of this move remains Kinder Morgan(KMP), Enbridge Energy Partners ( EEP), Enterprise Products (EPD), Partners, and Magellan (MMP). And of course Boardwalk remains down nearly 3 points on 2 downgrades and acknowledging that they are seeing cost overrruns on some of their projects. More MLPS are now lower vs higher but the moves are mostly fractional in nature.
It seems a bit overdone to me...and i never can figure out which upgrades and downgrades actually move the stock...but Morgan Keegan downgrades Boardwalk (BWP) to market perform from outperform. The stock is down 3 points here. Now my question is...since they were clearly wrong on the outperform..why should they be right now...and if market perform means it moves with the rest of the market...and it goes higher from here...doesn't it make it a buy in here?

The mlp index is all about Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) and their stock offerings so the index is down over 2 points. Most MLPS are actually flat to higher right now.Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) are the biggest winners today up strong fractions.
News items from last night as Holly Partners(HEP) is getting assets from Holly Corp (HOC). It also tells us its impact from last week's fire and explosion at Big Spring. No new units being issued for the asset purchase which at least means no new supply.
UNIT OFFERINGS,
THE UNHOLY TRINITY,
AND THE VIRUS ISSUE!





The last one first...there has been a virus issue with this blog lately and it has to do with my ad supporter and one of the ad placements. I have removed it and it should no longer be an issue. I am sorry for any inconvienence.

Okay last night night we got news from Kinder Morgan(KMP) and Enbridge Energy(EEP) which are both doing unit offerings. Kinder Morgan stock price is near a 52 week high so its a good place for them to sell units. Enbridge (EEP) has been going sideways for years now so there is no change here.


Note that were it not for Kinder Morgan the MLP index chart would look far worse than it does.
The basing pattern continues but i would look for the index to be lower today. But this time it may not necessarily reflect what will be going on in the group thanks to those 2 heavyweights and the distortions the stock offerings will cause.

Brokerage houses have been coming out lately touting MLPS especially Raymond James who are usually good at making the right calls at the right times so i would pay attention to them when they upgrade or downgrade. The Williams (WPZ) call comes near its 52 week low and the stock has rallied finally. This morning we have Citigroup starting coverage at a hold (what ever that means since you have to buy it first before you could hold it...or it means you hold while i sell.) Lehman starts Williams at an overweight.

Finally the unholy trinity of Linn, Constellation, and Eagle Rock all closed higher yesterday which violates the theory that it is impossible for these 3 companies to trade higher together on any given day. If we can't depend on this theory than what can we depend on? Actually its nice to see Linn finally acting better after weeks of unrelenting selling. Now if only the other 2 issues here would bounce.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is considering an offering of $250 million in units. Also after the close Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) will be offering shares as well. Both headlines after the close and both will give a knock to the MLP index first thing tomorrow morning.
The unholy trinity has been broken...all three of the cursed mlps closed up and thanks to a one cent up close on Eagle Rock (EROC)!

I may need therapy to come to terms with this!
The unholy trinity is in serious danger...someone sell down one of these now!

Linn Energy up 40 cents
Constellation up 26 cents
Eagle Rock up 1 cent

Could it be even concievable that they could all close up?
Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is down 1 and some change and is the biggest drag on the MLP index which is up 30 cents right now. Most MLPS remain higher however.
Nice up day unless you hold what i hold where once again i'm going nowhere fast. Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) remains on fire and is up another 1.45. Its been soaring ever since it announced its gas discovery. Markwest (MWE) is up 1 and change as well. Wachovia raised the stock to outperform.Raymond James ups Hiland Holdings (HPGP) to a strong buy from buy and the stock is up 70 cents. Williams Partners (WPZ) which was left for dead is up another point. Raymond James made this one a strong buy yesterday. And when Ray Jimmy's talks...people listen.

The mlp index is up a little over 1 point and its being dragged by some of the bigger cap mlps like Kinder Morgan (KMP)and Nustar (NS)which are down small fractions today.

Linn Energy (LINE) is up 4 points off its low. The unholy trinity is in jeopardy today as Constellation (CEP) and Eagle Rock(EROC) are up a few pennies. E V Partners (EVEP) is down and has not moved as volume has picked up lately....could be PIPE (priviate equity) pressure. Today is the last day of trading for February settlement...if that is important to any of these hedge funds.
RBC Capital Markets is keeping Hiland (HLND) at sector perform but it is raising its target price to 60 dollars from 56.
Apparently Merrill Lynch is upgrading Linn Energy (LINE) to buy according to a post on the yahoo board. I'm waiting for confirmation.