MLPS down modestly after a dow drop of 100 points which has now come off the lows with good economic data so far today. Inergy LP (NRGY) is down 80 cents as the mornings biggest loser. Most of the morning moves so far are plus or minus small fractions.

So much for that nat gas rally this morning as we are down almost 2 percent right now.

EURO WOES CONTINUE!

Its front and center this morning and yesterday's late day reversal in the overall market is getting undone this morning with futures down about 100 points. The dow chart is at a make or break place here as the support is holding but its getting to be a bit tenuous. So far though it is hanging on. Yesterday's late day rally looked like an end of month move with no lasting effect. We'll be back down to yesterday's lows at the open.

MLPS came back to some degree keeping losses under 1 point. The rally in bonds is being supportive in here to some degree so as long as things dont get too out of hand, any moves will be relatively contained and reasonable. But markets are a bit spooked right now with eyes on whether Spain will be the Lehman of Europe.

Nat gas corrected hard yesterday but its back up today before the open as weather will be turning colder than normal for the first half of December across the gas consuming areas of the midwest and northeast. Went long again on the pullback yesterday using UNL and not UNG. Its only for the most nimble of traders. Make your money and run!

Inergy LP (NRGY) chairman John Sherman was on CNBC yesterday discussing with Cramer about the quarterly results.

The chairman says the distribution is safe and the quarter was just a one time blip. Good interview for those of you who own this one or are thinking about it.

Markets coming back toward the flat line with energy leading. Crude up nearly 2 bucks on the day. MLPS well off the lows of the day and many have turned higher in the last hour. The tape all day long felt light it was waiting for something to set off the buying and when the dollar came off the highs at 2pm it was enough to get the market moving.

Dow down 130 and MLPS down 2 and off the lows of the day. Its all Europe all the time right now. Bonds are higher, yields lower but not exactly a flight to quality run as that is occuring in the dollar. Alliance Resource (ARLP) Calumet (CLMT) Crestwood Midstream (CMLP) and Amerigas (APU) lead the losers list this morning as most mlps are fractionally lower. Regency Partners (RGNC) is the lone noteable winner up 25 cents right now. Inergy (NRGY) was down 1 on earnings as they sell the news but the losses have been cut in half.

The tape has a firm tone to it oddly enough at least at this point of the day and despite the losses so lets see if they can hold that 11k level at the close.

Inergy LP (NRGY) posts another very good round of quarterly numbers. The stock has been among the better performers in MLP land.

Stock futures continue to call for a lower open.

BAILOUTS, BONDS, AND BUYERS
(OR LACK THERE OF)!

We certainly hope that you had a wonderful Thanksgiving as i did here. Now its back to Monday morning and a full trading day with all the players back. Over the weekend we had the bailout of Ireland but will it make any difference? Doubtful as these guys seem to think they can grow there way out of this mess. And that means the Euro mess will continue to drive markets. Attention shifts to Portugal & Spain among others. Its not a good sign that German bonds dropped on all this. And ask yourself this question. What happens as interest rates rise especially on the long end? That is certainly something the U.S. will have to consider as it finances its massive debt at higher rates. We may be at the very beginning of the swirl around the drain.
The 30 year yield chart looks to me like we have come out of a bottom and are now on an uptrend. I believe the thing to look for is when we start to see on a sustained basis; bond yields going up while equity prices drop. That will be a telling sign that trouble is brewing.




The dow and MLP charts appear to be in a holding pattern here and right now there appears to be nothing extraordinary going on here. US markets have strongly outperformed Europe as the fed's QE2 just floods the markets with tons of liquidity with no place to go. This is probably why these soverign debt collapses have not had a big impact on stock prices with the fed backing up the markets. MLPS have the crosswinds of good business conditions and the prospect of higher distributions on one side vs the threat of rising long term yields on the other. This push and pull is likely to continue for awhile until something causes the markets to break one way or the other.

MLPS are going to follow the tape at the open. No news drivers out there on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Stock futures are lower and below fair value after being higher overnight. Bond yields are a touch higher as are crude. Nat gas continues to move higher as colder weather looms in the gas consuming states. At some point this tailwind will run out of steam but nat gas seems to have broken out of a base.
Using UNL as a proxy (better than using UNG) 37 is doable on this upleg and that would be the logical place where a test will ensue. The dollar continues its flight to quality rally with the European woes. Watching headlines and will post any news items that break on MLPS before the open.

BLACK FRIDAY MORE LIKE RED FRIDAY!

The dow opens down 100 points and the MLP index opens down 1.50 as Euro worries, Korean worries, and other worries dominate the tape on a holiday shortened day. Considering it is a holiday shortened day in a volume vacuum, the sell off is pretty contained. Not expecting too much to happen today under these conditions unless the North Koreans fire off a rocket or something.

Going to take the day off today. Have a good weekend and we'll see everyone on Monday!

As often happens on big up days mlps are doing nothing. In fact the index is down 65 cents while the dow is up 140. Looks like mlps are responding to the 10 basis point rise in the 30 year and the 14 basis point rise in the 10 year. Crude is up and nat gas has decisively broken out after being down this morning; nat gas turned around at lunchtime and is now up 2 percent.

Spectra (SEP) is up 50 cents and is today's biggest winner on the UBS upgrade from sell to neutral. EV Partners (EVEP) and Exterran Partners (EXLP) are fractional winners. Plains All American (PAA) is down 75 cents and is the biggest loser along with being the biggest drag on the mlp index.

Nice rally on the day before Thanksgiving!!! MLPS seemed to have figured this out and the buyers have gone home early.

THE RETURN OF KINDER MORGAN!

It was long ago in the last cycle that Richard Kinder took Kinder Morgan (KMP) private and end a spectacular climb from an ipo at 7 bucks in 1997 to a takeout at 107.50 dollars for shareholders in 2007. Now its time to come back to the market and Kinder Morgan will be doing an ipo. Its a sign of the times and a sign of how good the mlp market really is these days. Normally we'd have to question the possibility of a top but given the performance of the first time around, i think i will bet with Mr Kinder in the long haul.


Its the day before Thanksgiving and my sense is much of the market moves will be done by noon as everyone begins the early getaway. Stock futures are higher this morning and yields are higher on bonds. Crude is higher and nat gas is lower. No corporate news for mlps. UBS is upgrading Spectra Energy (SEP) to neutral and the stock is bid up above its previous close in the pre market.

Going to keep it short this morning as i have errands to run but i will be posting if any significant headlines break.

DOWN 150 AND MLPS DOWN 2.50
AS LAST HOUR LOOMS!

Sorry for not posting until now but its been one of those pre thanksgiving days where i had to run around, food shop, dog groom, get gas for the grill, and drive 2 hrs to get middle child from college. All this and a stomach that is doing all sorts of weird things and it has not been fun. Markets sold off on the Korean mess which i'm sure you've all heard about it by now. You can have your pick of news stories here along with blog reactions. Dow went down to 11k and held (so far) so the last hour could tell us alot about that support. MLPS are doing okay as yields fall a little today. No corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades that i could find.

Nat gas breakout occuring as it is up 12 cents and above last week's high. Instead of selling rallies, pullbacks now can be bought.

Dow down less than 80. MLP index now unchanged.

The MLP index is doing some rebalancing at the end of the month and coming into the index is Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP). Since we now live in a world with etf's and etns in the mlp land the index change means the efts have to buy the stock. Martin is up 1.15 on the news. The index itself is down about 1 point and off the lows of the day. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) is down 88 cents as the biggest loser today. Markwest (MWE) Buckeye(BPL) and Energy Transfer (ETP) are down major fractions. On the winning side Copano (CPNO) Nustar (NS) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are up fractionally.

Yields are rallying right now as the 30 year which dropped to 4.169 is now back to 4.22% and markets overall are off the lows of the day with the dow down about 100 after being down 140. Natgas is firm as we are attempting a breakout.

THANKSGIVING WEEK BEGINS

A holiday shortened week begins and MLPS are starting the week within striking distance at its all time high but also just sitting above its supporting moving averages. Today is 2 years since the 145 ish intraday low and we are 210 points above that today. Think back to this moment 2 years ago in the middle of the meltdown and ask yourself if you were really confident that in just 2 short years time, most of your mlps would be at all time highs?



We continue to worry about some of the headwinds that are out there, not the least of which is rising long term rates. But so far i appear to be the only on worrying because so far mlps aren't too worried. We're still trying to figure out where the tipping point is.

A couple of reads out there to take a look at. ETFdb has a pretty in depth piece explaining MLP etf's and how they work. If you have any lingering questions about them..this may answer them. This piece address the issue of MLPS being overvalued relative to yield and says they are..well..read the piece and find out.

No corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades this morning as we get it in gear for the open. Stock futures are lower now after being higher overnight. Bond yields are lower, the dollar is higher. Energy has turned flat after being higher overnight. Nat gas is on the verge of a short term upside breakout. But that market of course is only for the most nimble of traders.

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NAT GAS BOTTOM?

There is a nice looking double bottom that appears to be in place and we may know soon whether nat gas is about to make a move higher short term. I'm using UNL which is the 12 month nat gas fund as opposed to UNG which is front loaded with near month futures and as a result has become a wasting asset and not wise except for the most nimble of traders. In fact UNL or UNG if used should be for short term players and not those who believe that nat gas prices are going higher in the long term. Back to the short term, weather is turning favorable and we could see a long overdue rally in here. First obstacles will be the moving averages which lie just above. Watching how a stock breaks through these lines marks the character and strength of the breakout so if it cuts through it fast; its saying there is a lot of buying power behind the move. Nat gas is up in the premarket this morning and above 4.00 on the nearby futures contract.

MLPS finished up yesterday by under 2 points. No news drivers so far this morning in the group. No upgrades or downgrades so far. Stock futures are down a little. Yields are a little lower on the long end. Gold and silver are down and so is the dollar. Its Friday everyone so lets get ready for the open which is 30 minutes away.

Forgot to mention that natgas sold off after inventory numbers but has staged a complete reversal and is now back to unchanged.

As often happens on big days, MLPS get left behind a little bit as the more well known shares get all the attention including the new General Motors. The index is off the highs up 1.50. Most mlps are higher with Alliance Resource (ARLP) up 1 and we have nice fractional gains in Natural Resource (NRP), Nustar (NS), Energy Transfer (ETP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL). Not many issues showing losses of any consequence. Atlas Holdings (AHD) dropped about 80 cents early but its back over 14 and only down 20 cents.

The 30 year is at 4.31% and rising back toward the days highs.

RALLY MODE AS RATES KEEP CLIMBING!

We continue to move right along here as markets are set to zoom up about 100 dow points at the open. MLPS are set to move along higher at the open as well after a fractional gain higher on the index in yesterday's trade. Everyone's attention is on the GM IPO this morning so while the world is distracted we can look around without being noticed. MLP closed end funds got a mention in the Barrons blog section. Seeking Alpha likes Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) over some other mlps and a long piece on why. Investerplace has a bit of a buyer beware piece on MLPS when it comes to high yield. And there has been some attention being paid to the muni bond market as there has been a big sell off there. Seeking Alpha has more on something that so far has not had much impact on other markets.

And speaking of other markets, the bond market continues to get my attention. We have clearly broken out of a bottom as far as yields go. We've had 2 failed auctions and i am sensing more and more that we may be at the beginning of something much bigger that we will be dealing with in the next few months. The steepening yield curve is telling us one of 2 things. Either the economy is about to take off, or bond investors are saying that yields are too low based on future debt and inflation. If these were normal times i would bet on the economy taking off. But these are not normal times. I'm beginning to believe that we could be at the beginning of the greatest of unwinds in the bond market and this will have huge ramifications as far as stocks and mlps are concerned. Suppose its more than just an inflation fear. Suppose its the fear of the US losing its AAA grade? Suppose one of these Europe like contagions begins here? Right now we are not there yet but there is a tipping point out there somewhere. And we can safely say today is not that day.

This morning in MLP land we are pretty much news free. No upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are sharply higher. Yields open higher after jobless claims. Crude is up and nat gas is lower ahead of inventory numbers. Nat gas closed above 4 bucks again yesterday. 4.20 is the recent rally high and it seems to be that we are headed back there to attempt a serious breakout. That could come if we get bullish numbers at 10:30am. Also i mentioned yesterday that the weather pattern will turn favorable later next week for nat gas bulls. Weather models continue to point in that direction of colder than normal temps for the midwest and northeast after Thanksgiving.

Mixed moves in a "watching paint dry" kind of day. MLS up less than a point on the index. Most mlps are moving fractionally in either direction with no conviction one way or the other. Bond market gyrations continue as yields dropped to 4.22 this morning and are back near 4.30 this afternoon. Crude is down while nat gas is up but off the highs of the day.