Its a watching paint dry type of morning; fractional moves in either direction and no standouts one way or the other. Last few mornings have started this way and we wind up finishing the day on a firm note.
Watching and waiting for something to happen.
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About Me
- joewxman
- a meteorologist with a knack for trading and investing in MLPS! I also like horse racing, enjoy cigars and a good port wine.
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6 comments:
joewaxman Thank you for your timeand effort on this blog, and letting us share your data and insight.
my pleasure....i enjoy doing this!
Joe,
Here's a piece from the TPP Yahoo site re:12/8/05 S&P report. Sounds legit.
My stellar Harris Direct people have not, as yet, been able to access!
Message follows:
Printeam1, I get my S&P reports online from Scottrade. I'm not sure if I can (legally) copy the whole report but here's an excerpt:
"Investment Rationale/Risk December 08, 2005
In our opinion, TPP has built an attractive and well-diversified group of transportation and storage assets. We expect TPP to invest about $240 million in 2005 capital projects, including about $36 million on maintenance programs. TPP's budget includes $140 million for the Jonah gathering system, which serves increasing natural gas production in southwestern Wyoming. These investments, in our opinion, will begin to pay off in 2006. We also think TPP will intensify its search for acquisition opportunities, benefiting from the experience of EPCO, Inc., its new general partner. EPCO is also the general partner of Enterprise Products Partners, one of the largest midstream MLPs. Altogether, we expect TPP to extend its impressive record of 13 consecutive years of increased distributions to unit holders. At current price levels, we find TPP attractive on a total return basis. Our recommendation is buy."
I'm pretty sure that's the latest, at least from Scottrade. Both S&P and M* are impressed with Dan Duncan of EPCO. Although EPCO is the general partner for TPP and EPD, and both are currently run as seperate companies, M* feels there could be a merger of EPD and TPP sometime in the future. Hopefully, Duncan will turn out to be another Richard Kinder.
First of all let me address the last line regarding a merger of EPD and TPP. This to me makes perfect sense and its just a matter of time before it happens.
Now to the short term...they may be impressed with TPP increasing distributions 13 years in a row but right now their distributions are static. I think this continues to pressure Teppco, Valero, Northern Borders, and a few others.
At least S&P makes the case here for a long term hold even if we're sitting with dead money for awhile with a nice distribution check while we wait.Meanwhile new money should go to ETP, HLND and PPX. They have the best looking charts.
Joe,
On the TPP/EPD possible merger:how do you see that happening? I'm sure it'll be some kind of buyout at $XXXX per share.
Joe,
Further on TPP/EPD merger.
Driving DOWN the TPP price, as it's happened, would of course make it a lot easier for EPCO to take the company over for one hell of a lot LESS money.
Don't have to be to Macchiavellian to come up with that one!
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