Friday, June 29, 2007
EV Partners is down fractionally along with Martin Midstream (MMLP), Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), and Nustar Holdings (NSH).
More end of quarter nonsense for the afternoon.
We ended Q1 on the MLP index at 314 and we are at 330 this morning as the last day of Q2 begins so we holding a 16 point gain or about a 5% gain (plus add another 1.5% or so for distribution) so a total return for the quarter of about 6 1/2%! Excellent in my view. And there have been some big winners this quarter especially among GP's like Buckeye Holdings (BGH) ,Nustar Holdings (NSH), Atlas Resource (ATN), Atlas Holdings among others. All of the above produced double digit percentage gains for the quarter.
Now of course the big question is what about the second half? Well we are now nine months into a bull move that began last October when the MLP index came off a 255 bottom and broke above 270 for the first time. We are 60 points above that now for a more than 20% gain plus 3 completed distribution cycles.
It has been excellent and I still see no sign of topping here but a few caution flags are in order. One is the 10 year note where the rate has crept up above 5%. 5.25% is the tipping point for me so we're okay here as long as that holds. The fed is friendly to us by doing nothing. Energy prices remain firm so demand remains strong. I am less concerned with stable or even falling energy prices (as long as its nothing catastrophic) by i will be concerned by any big spike that might be hurricane induced. 2 years ago MLPS made their top at the beginning of August 2005 and went into a sideways correction for the next 13 months. This came right as oil began its run to 80 bucks and a barrell and natural gas went to 15 bucks. These are things we should keep an eye on. Money flows into the group remain positive an interest in MLPS from new investors continues to increase. The Spectra ipo (SEP) of a few days ago shows that demand for MLPS remains quite strong.
As to what to watch, keep an eye on some underperformers like Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI), Hiland LP (HLND) and for that matter any other MLPS that have not grown their distribution from quarter to quarter.
These 2 issues have gone nowhere recently as money flows into the growers. But should they get back on track they might emerge as leaders in the next run up or at least play catch up. Note that Crosstex (XTEX) has some other issues to deal with so do recognize that there is risk here should the distribution remain static for several more quarters. By the way for disclosure purposes i am long both Crosstex and Hiland and that i trade in and out of theses positions.
Now one other observation. In the last quarter if you had the choice of holding Apple Computer(AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM) or Terra Nitrogen (TNH); which one would have made you the most money?
The winner...Terra Nitrogen of course with a 150% gain in the quarter verses a "miniscule"50% gains for the others plus you got a 6% plus yield. Who says owning tech is where to be when you could have made lots more money from a company that has lots of shit, knows its shit, and sells lots of shit! No guarantees btw that we'll be able to say this again next quarter. And this is no buy recommendation here by anymeans...just observing what has been going on. It really does pay not to have anyone pay attention to you. Better to make money quietly!
There is nothing on the news front this morning. No upgrades or downgrades. Futures just turned higher on stocks and the energy complex is firm. The 10 year rate is flat.
Finally, back to normal today as my horse yesterday finished a strong second in her race. I was very happy with her performance but i spend 7 hours driving back and forth in hideous traffic including sitting on the outerbridge crossing for 40 minutes as they cleared an accident at the top of the bridge. Wonderful!
Thursday, June 28, 2007
One of the consequences of becoming a more popular investment tool is that you start acting more and more like the market does. I think that is what we are seeing in many MLP issues like Terra Nitrogen (TNH) for example which took an 11 point hit or 9% yesterday on no news. I think you saw an end of quarter run-up into Tuesday's close (friday settlement) for those who want this stock on the books by 6/29 close. Now the sellers are booking profits. On the other hand I think Linn Energy was being sold out of portfolios in the last few weeks and that pressure came off yesterday and the stock rose on 100,000 shares+. I think it could continue to rise into tomorrow's close barring any news items. Such is life these days in MLP land.
Meanwhile E V Partners(EVEP) yesterday after the close announced the closing of an earlier announced deal and reminded unitholders that this will result in a distribution boost in the 3rd quarter (October).
The MLP index closed at 329.99 yesterday after the morning reversal. Today the fed meeting is the big player so once they get that out of the way and assuming therer are no surprises we should see more upside. This morning energy markets are firmer and natural gas is back over 7 dollars. Stock futures and the 10 year are flat as we wait for the fed.
Thanks to a poster yesterday for pointing out a new MLP on the market. Spectra LP (SEP) came public yesterday priced above the ipo range and closed well above it. Nice reception by the market and unlike Blackstone Group (BX) this one stays above the opening price in my view!
My horse is running today in the 6th race at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Hallies Charm (7) will be trying 1 1/16th miles on the grass today and i think she has a shot. So i will be headed there today to hopefully stand in the winners circle. Post time is 3:07pm eastern and for those of you interested you can watch the race live on line. Just click on the broadband link.
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
The losers list is thinning out a bit. Constellation (CEP) down 1.14. Global (GLP) is down .90. Smaller fractional losses in Hiland (HLND) Breitburn (BBEP), and Calumet (CLMT) but note that it would only take a handfull of buys in any of these to wipe out losses fairly quickly.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) having one of its sharp corrections today...down 9 at 122.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH)began one of its sharp corrections again. The stock is down 8 but off its low of the day at 121. Linn Energy (LINE) stopped going down today as it hit a 7%+ yield this morning and is now up near 33. K-Sea (KSP) is up 2 on its deal. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) is over 30 and up over 1. Lots of fractional gains elsewhere.
Constellation Partners (CEP) is down over a point. Fractional losses in Copano (CPNO) Breitbart (BBEP) and Duke Midstream (DPM) among others.
Look for the rally to build after traders digest lunch.
As always when using charts you can look at them and stake a position and then come up with every reason why you will be right...or wrong. Well i thought this mornning why not look at the usual suspects and see if we can come up with anything.
The AMZ MLP Index is in this sideways consolidation since hitting 335. 320 is the bottom of the range. I think the break will be to the upside eventually. Demand is still strong in the group. Deals continue which continue to drive up prices. 5.25% remains the top of the range in the ten year. This morning we are at 5.06%
Less clear to me is the DOW Industrail chart which also has been moving sideways. It has been foolish to get bearish on these pullbacks so if i had to guess once the fed meeting is down tomorrow we should rally.
Oil stocks still want to go higher and why not. These companies continue to make buckets of money as long as the price of crude sits over 60 bucks. Chart still looks bullish. No signs of a top.
And finally there is Terra Nitrogen (TNH). All i can say about this one is, its too bad the wayback machine can't take us back to when the stock was in the single digits!. This one is just unrelenting but when the pullback comes it will be sharp and fast. 10-15 point selloff in one day? Not impossible!
This morning stock futures are quite weak which to me is probably better than opening higher and closing lower but there are a lot of overhangs out there. Ten year is behaving at 5.06% Crude oil is lower and natural gas is continuing to sell off; under 7 bucks. No corporate news this morning but check the news that broke last night in the prior post on Atlas Pipeline(APL) which announced a distribution hike and K-Sea9KSP) which did buy up 2 companies and pre-announced a distribution hike. No upgrades or downgrades so far.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
The MLP index closed off the low...down a small fraction on the day. End of quarter nonsense plus a fed meeting is probably keeping everyone on hold. Also hot weather in NY driving everyone to the beach!
On the watch this afternoon...looks like the broad market is rallying and that may spread out into MLPS after lunch.
Love these quiet mornings where there is not a stich of news, no upgrades or downgrades, nothing. So its the usual market forces this morning. Lower energy, flat 10 year, and stronger stock futures so i guess we open higher. So i might as well wait for the open and see where it goes. Bear in mind end of quarter and end of first half coming up on Friday so some volitility and some surprises probably on the horizon.
Monday, June 25, 2007
Just a few winners left with Nustar Holdings (NSH) up 40 cents,and Natural Resource (NRP) up 25 cents and way off its high.
Last hour could be messy if support breaks in the overall market. Look for MLPS to follow.
I'm going to take some pool time here in the hot air in NY...I will post more broadly right after lunch.
If you were hoping to wake up and start the day with news about deals,upgrades and downgrades all over the place and all kinds of other action...well guess what....its as quiet as a church mouse this morning. There is not a breath of news, not a single upgrade or downgrad, nothing (at least so far). So with that backdrop stock futures are flat but above fair value so that gives us some small support. Energy prices aredown this morning back under 68 bucks and down over 1 dollar and nat gas is under 7 bucks again. So i guess everyone is holding their breath to see if there will be followthrough to Friday's 180 point selloff.
The MLP index meanwhile continues to hold support at 320 and in fact has only reluctantly sold off late in the week as the overall market dragged the group down. Midstream assets are attractive as GE showed us last week. The chart to me says new all time highs are coming...as long as the overall market doesn't meltdown over this Bear Sterns and the subprime mess. Ten year rates benefiting from flight to quality as the yield is back down to 5.11 this morning. Stock futures meanwhile have firmed and the open looks nicely higher so MLPS are poised to follow.
The only thing going on (and this is a stretch) is that Breitburn (BBEP) has a bid this morning in the pre-market above Friday's close. Sometimes that happens when something is going on..and sometimes not. I am really grasping at straws here.
Friday, June 22, 2007
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is down 3 after trading as high as 126 this morning. The stock had an impressive run these last 2 weeks. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) has broken out to new highs today. Copanoi (CPNO) also up near its 52week high.
Other than Terra Nitrogen, Genisis (GEL) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are the 2 biggest losers down just under 1 point each.
Barring a complete market meltdown today or a big spike up in rates on the 10 year MLPs might continue to move higher for a couple of reasons. One is energy is higher today across the board which will probably lend support. Oil is approaching 70 bucks. The second reason again in my book is that the game changed on Tuesday when General Electric took a big stake in Regency Partners (RGNC). This gave a green light to MLPS and i think new all time highs loom on the AMZ MLP index as we sit less than 2% away.
And indeed we have a a flat open that has now turned higher for the group. No standouts in the early trade as most moves are small fractions in either direction. Morgan Keegan is giving a goose to Boardwalk Partners (BWP) starting it at a buy. No corporate news driving any particular stock so lets wade through the first half hour noise and go from there.
Thursday, June 21, 2007
So far not much news after the close. New all time highs in sight for the MLP index.
So far not much news after the close. New all time highs in sight for the MLP index.
Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down 1, Fractional losers in Martin Midstream (MMLP), Williams Partners (WPZ), Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and a few others.
As long as the market holds up this afternoon we should add to these morning gains.
Yesterday's last hour selloff in the MLP group took the index to the lows of the day but the group outperforms the rest of the market yesterday so this morning we start the morning with higher crude prices but also a higher 10 year which has crept back up to 5.17%. 5.25% remains the magic pivit point imho so watch those rates carefully as the bond market continues to be the tail that is wagging this dog.
This morning Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) holders have reason to celebrate as they will be getting distribution increases Energy Transfer Partners goes to 3.225 from 3.15 and Equity goes to 1.49 from 1.42 annual. Both stocks have been among the better performers in the group.
Hard to argue with these charts which show uptrends pretty much intact here.
Energy Prices are higher this morning as they rebound from yesterday's selloff. Stock futures are a little weaker this morning as the 10 year rate is trading at 5.17% this morning. No other corporate headlines and no upgrades or downgrades so far.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Constellation Partners (CEP) Suburban Propane(SPH) both down 70 cents. Markwest Hydrocarbon(MWP) is the biggest loser.
Someday I'll figure out upgrades...AG Edwards starts Legacy (LGCY) at a buy. The stock is unchanged. Credit Suisse's upgrade of Atlas Pipeline gave this stock nearly a 2 dollar up start..now just up 20 cents.
On the losing side, Constellation (CEP) and Holly Partners (HEP) are down about 60 to 70 cents apiece as the 2 biggest losers. Smaller fractional loses in a few other issues but nothing really news driven.
The MLP index closed 3 1/2 points higher yesterday mostly on strength from Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) which was up over $1 and is a big component of the index. Still we are heading back quickly to 330 and new all time highs loom ahead...we're less than 3% away. Meanwhile Terra Nitrogen (TNH) went over 120 yesterday so when your up more than 20% in a week it was time to correct and the stock did close lower at 114. So we have lots of movement.
Credit Suisse is on the horn this morning for Atlas Pipeline Partners which it upgrades to outperform from marketperform. This might be a catylist to move the stock back over 55. Nothing else on the list so far. Also we have some news from Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) which is buying a ton(figuratively) of coal reserves.
Oil is lower this morning but natural gas is higher.The 10 year yesterday dropped unde 5.10% which provides support and we continue to hold the 5.25% level. 10 year is at 5.08% this morning. Stocks futures are higher for the open.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Global (GLP) and Magellan Midstream (MMP) are the 1 point losers today. The other losers are 40 cents or less. The MLP index is up 65 cents and at the highs of the day.
Magellan Midstream (MMP) opened down over a buck and has come back to minus 80 cents. Global Partners (GLP) is down 60 cents. Most other losers are down by small fractions.
We have news this morning which i think comes as a bit of a surprise. General Electric is taking a large stake in Regency Partners (RGNC) as it buys up 91% of the general partner and a 37% stake in the LP. I guess GE sees some value here.
Sometimes this kind of news can light a fire under the group as investors start to look around for similar situations. Stock has been one of the underperformers among MLPS lately but today's news will turn that around.
Elsewhere this morning it is another quiet start. There has been some buzz about Linn Energy (LINE) and whether they are about to announce another big deal. Today is their annual meeting but so far nothing on the wire. Energy markets this morning are a little soft in overnight after crude ran up yesterday and sits just under 69 dollars. 10 year has calmed down and is at 5.14% so that 5.25% top appears to be holding. Nothing has appeared on the upgrade downgrade list.
In the world of Terra Nitrogen (TNH) it is clear this one is on another one of those upside momentum moves. The stock was up another 5 dollars yesterday and just continues its runaway upside breakout move from last week. Its one of those things that one can only watch with awe...unless one was brave enough to buy a month or so ago when the stock corrected down into the upper 70s. Remember for you brave bulls among you that pullbacks in these things can come anytime and they can be quite violent.
Back to the 10 year, we are at the top of the range but that top is holding which saved the overall market last week and it save the MLP group as well. As long as5.25 holds which is the high from last summer we're in good shape. But that chart is bothersome.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Quiet start this morning with no deals,no news, but we do have Wachovia upgrading Enbridge Energy Partners(EEP) and Enbridge Energy Management (EEQ) and they are both up nicely. The AMZ MLP index is higher by about half a point. The group looks split down the middle this morning between winners and lsoers. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) as i said is up 1 and change as the biggest winner. Duke Midstream (DPM) is also up nearly a point.
Breitburn is down again today by 70 cents, Markwest (MWE) is down 90 cents and Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is down 1.20....but that one had a big rally last week as it broke out over 100.
Postings may be slim today as i am working in town. But i will be posting when i can.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
I was doing some checking on insider action in the MLP group and came across some interesting things. Note that a Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) director sold nearly 50,000 shares of stock last week which in itself is a little worrysome. Thats a huge chunck of shares to unload on a stock that is closer to its 52 week low than its 52 week high. But on further inspection note that at the same time this director made a huge insider purchase with those proceeds of 43,000 shares of Crosstex (XTXI) the gp of XTEX! So I guess the bet here is that XTXI will more upside potential then XTEX. Interesting move. Also some other insider moves as a director of Legacy Partners (LGCY) does an open market purchase of the stock. Duke Midstream (DPM) directors also are buying up stock near 52 week highs. and its 5 different directors buying which is bullish. Breitburn (BBEP) had an insider buy. Nustar has Mr Greely buying hand over fist for awhile now. So considering we are still seeing buying in the group after such a nice run up in the MLP index may be indications that higher highs are still ahead.
WPIX TV NEW YORK CITY
Its a bittersweet moment for me tonight. I have been working at WPIX-TV in New York for the last 10 1/2 years. My first childhood memories was being in front of the TV set in East Harlem N.Y. watching cartoons on Channel 11 along with the Honeymooners, Perry Mason, Yankee Baseball, Abbot and Costello, The Three Stooges, The Little Rascals, and so on. That I got to work there on the air and become part of that history was huge for me. No one was happier. I had no complaints. I not only loved my job but i adored the people i worked with.
But in life curve balls are thrown. Because of circumstances beyond my control I wound up on the outside looking in. My job was given to someone else with me still in it! And while i was in free fall along comes an opportunity to go across the street at WNBC-TV and back to where i started in my first job some 27 years ago when i was a young meteorologist assistant producer on the Today show for Willard Scott!
So i say goodbye tonight to some really great people and a really great life experience and on to a new adventure. I will never forget these 10 plus years. I have been very blessed and very lucky that God brought some outstanding people into my life. I shall never forget it.
Friday, June 15, 2007
Meanwhile its higher prices for MLPS up 1.70 at 327 at this time. One point or more plusses in United Compression (UCLP) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is extending its breakout up 5 and change to 108. Lots of fractional plusses in Legacy (LGCY),Martin Midstream(MMLP) Duke Midstream(DPM), Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) and Markwest (MWE).
Losers list is small; other than Breitburn as the standout, losses are 30 cents or less in a handful of issues on small volume.
If its been all about bonds this week (and it has been) then we cap the week off with CPI which came in at 0.1 core which was cooler than expectations and the market likes it, bonds liked it and MLPS will like it. The 10 year is at 5.19% and stock futures are strong so it looks like we will finish the week on a solid note.
No corporate developements this morning but last night Atlas Resource Partners(ATN) announced its distribution for the quarter and it is going ex-distribution early in this cycle....June 26th is the record date which means it goes ex-distribution next Friday June 22.
In upgrades and downgrades Legacy Partners (LGCY) gets a buy nod from the boys and girls at Oppenheimer this morning.
So unless we get breaking news lets wait for what should be a solid up open for the group.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Eagle Rock (EROC) is down 68 cents as the biggest loser. Inergy (NRGP), Martin Midstream (MMLP)and Williams Partners (WPZ) are losing small fractions.
Utility average over 500 again. The 10 year is holding 5.25%...now at 5.20%. So it looked gloomy on Tuesday and it now looks better today.
Bond market gyrations continue to wag the dog here as the rally from the 5.36 peak to 5.20 on the yield gave us a 3 point MLP index gain so we continue to hold 320 on that index. Inflation numbers on producer prices out this morning is being watched closely so that will be the broad market driver. Energy prices this morning are higher again across the board and stock futures are higher and above fair value.
This morning in corporate news we have dead silence and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list.
Tuesday's action caused me to get very cautious on the group and of course yesterday's action proves how the market can humble you quickly. As it happens i sold out a couple of trading positions on Tuesday and when mlps began to firm up yesterday i was able to get back into the same positions at slightly lower prices before they rallied. Such is life when one trades but fortuantely this group sometimes takes its sweet time joining broad market parties which gives you time to change course.
Meanwhile Terra Nitrogen(TNH) closed yesterday at 98.51.Will today be the day this one finally breaks out over 100? Ten year right now at 5.22 and stock futures are strengthening ahead of ppi.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Losing list is thinning out with a few issues like Teppco (TPP) Linn Energy (LINE) and a few others down small fractions. Oneok LP (OKS) is down 56 cents and that one is today's biggest loser.
Constellation Partners (CEP) Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) Natural Resource Partners (NRP) and Suburban Propane (SPH) leading the way up 1 point or more.
Duke Midstream (DPM) is down 95 cents as the biggest loser today.
Losers today include Martin Midstream(MMLP) E V Partners (EVEP) Linn Energy (LINE) and Calumet LP (CLMT) all down fractions but nothing on volume.
Dow up 90, Utilites up 6. If rates behave today we will continue to rally.
And that is the big question this morning. In this MLP rally we have seen the spread risk disappear in some cases and as rates continue to melt up will MLPS at least revert back to the mean with regards to spread risk...which in the past has been in the 2 to 3 % range.
Melt ups like this in the bond market don't happen to often.
Note the weekly chart on the 10 year rate is beginning to break out so to me it says we go to 5.50-5.75.
And of course the MLP index is sitting on the edge of the cliff this morning as we are back down to the lows of 2 weeks ago and the bet for me is that we are going lower.
News this morning on Spectra Energy (SE) as it has set the terms of the IPO of its MLP. There will be more MLPS coming out in the next few months. More choice but more supply. We're okay as long as demand from new investors remains strong.
No other corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. The pivot point is 5.30% on the 10 year. As bonds tick from the 5,30% level the stock futures are following. So that is what we'll be watching today. Any rate spike will bring in sellers.
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Soaring 10 year rates can't be good in here. Usuallyi'mlooking around for trading opportunities but there are times to step aside until the dust settles and this may be one of those times.
Again sorry for the late first post but it doesn't seem that i missed any upside. The MLP index is now bouncing slightly off the lows of the day at 320.06 and most MLPS are down although the losses are heavier in the bigger cap mlps than the small ones. Kinder Morgan is down nearly 1 point among the losers. Martin Midstream is down 1. So is Suburban Propane (SPH) Legacy (LGCY) and Markwest (MWP)>
Hiland LP (HLND) is fractionally higher as they have finally found their ceo so that uncertainty disappears. Universal Compression (UCLP) gets a buy nod from one of the brokerages...thanks to the poster who put it in the comments section. Copano (CPNO)got a buy nod from UBS but that stock moved yesterday on that news and its down a touch today.
10 year rates hit 5.23 but have since backed off to 5.20 which has turned the dow industrials around to a 4 point gain. We'll see if this spreads.
Monday, June 11, 2007
On the losing side, Sunoco Logistics(SXL) is down 1, Global Partners (GLP) ,Markwest (MWE) Terra Nitrogen (TNH) and Calumet (CLMT) down fractionally.
Commodities suppot today as those markets are higher except for Natural Gas. Ten year rate up .02 at 5.14 and holding.
We could spend the morning talking about the Sopranos (i thought it was brilliant! and in true David Chase fashion as Tony is killed imho) or we could talk about Rags To Riches being the first female in 102 years to win the Belmont. Or we could talk about the fact that nothing is going on this morning. There have been Monday morning deals in the last few weeks and corporate news is non existent. No upgrades or downgrades either so far. So like will be about the 10 year Bond and if rates are going to resume their climb or will the settle down and stocks try to re-rally. Lots to ponder!
So unless i see breaking news we will wait until the open. BTW there was a Barron's piece on MLPS and specifically about the MLPS that will be coming out in the next few months. It was in general a positive overview on the group and Kinder Morgan Partners gets a specific goose by the anal-ist quoted. Someone posted the piece here on the yahoo message board.
Saturday, June 09, 2007
Friday, June 08, 2007
Nustar Holdings (NSH) Terra Nitrogen (TNH) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) up 1 or more. Hiland Holdings (HPGP), Nustar (NS), Global Partners (GLP) Copano (CPNO) Ferrellgas (FGP) and Duncan Partners (DEP) all down 1 or more.
We have seen an amazing adjustment in interest rates as we have risen 30 basis points since Wednesday peaking this morning (so far) around 5.25%.
Its not often you see gaps and huge spikes in the bond chart like this but we have yesterday's spike and what is not shown which is the overnight spike in rates. Now 5.25 is last years high and i think market traders have priced that spike in. So if it holds and rates begin to back off from that we could see stock (and mlp) prices try and find a bottom in here. However if 5.25 does not hold we we see this spike up get out of hand i think it might get pretty ugly out there today.
Meanwhile the MLP index is now close to its low from 2 weeks ago. You have to think that this huge rate adjustment in the 10 year will continue to exert pressure on prices since the yield spread is about as low as its ever been. Its going to be an interesting day ahead to be sure. Traders should watch for any gap down opens as possible entry points should you be in the mood to catch any falling knives!
Drops like this make upgrades and downgrades useless sometimes. Nothing on the list but its early. No corporate headlines either to drive prices of individual issues.
When i started this post futures were down 9 and the 10 year was at 5.24%. Now futures are down 5.50 and the 10 year is holding 5.24%. Look for a rough start and then??????
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Breitburn (BBEP) is creeping back up to the flatline but who knows what that means if anything. The MLP index is at the lows of the day now down 4.42. The 10 year yield hit 5.099% before backing off from there. Dow dropped 100 points fairly quickly as rates spiked this morning.
Energy is higher today across the board but today its all about yield.
Yesterday's 1% ish loss was pretty much in line with the market's overall loss and now this morning we see the 10 year at 5.03% and rising.
Chart formation are bullish for bond rates so i think the breakout at 4.90 was significant. Now we are poised to challenge 5.25% which takes us back to exactly 1 year ago.
So what will MLPS do? I think they will pretty much follow equities here since trends for energy are still bullish. Deals in MLP land continue and i think that certainly helps prices. But if equity markets begin to sell off MLPS will move down with them at least for awhile. For now we watch and wait. 5.25 was where the last rally in rates ended a year ago. Not sure what will happen this time around.
Ferrellgas (FGP) is out with higher earnings this morning and that will of course impact the stock. No other news on the corporate front and no upgrades or downgrades.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
A few losers are coming off their lows.
Not much else happening today as the 10 year is just under 5% and the down is down 117. Look for the broader market forcest to dictate the flow this afternoon.
Lets begin with a question. What does an investment house do when one stock is up 50% in the last 12 months and the other is up 60%? It tells you to buy both of them today and that is what Morgan Keegan is telling clients to do. It is starting Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) at "buy" to which i say welcome to the land of MLPS! Better late than never. More on this later.
Meanwhile the MLP index looks like it went to a short term buy yesterday if one relies on chart signals. Note the MACD on the chart crossed yesterday and the relative strength has bounced off that 30 low from last week. This is all happening while the 10 year has broken out of a base on the dauly chart.
We have cleared 4.90% and it looks like we may be headed back to the 5.25% top which was put in a year ago. Now one could argue that there is some sort of seasonal thing going on here and that we could go to 5.25% without much pressure on the group. I find this a bit difficult to grasp personally. Yield compression has pushed MLPS to its highest valutations relative to the 10 year. The spread among MLPS growing their distributions the fastest is less than 1% and in some cases the spread is actually negative. In the non growers tor uneven growers the spread is 1-2%.
So what does all this mean. I think deals in the group are pushing prices. Also note this comment posted last week about a court ruling regarding MLPS and what Wachovia thinks about that. That may be another reason supporting prices. Clearly there is a growing demand for income producing shares and not enough supply. We'll see what today brings in the face of a weak stock market open on the futures and 5% looming on the 10 year.
Now back to Morgan Keegan, it is starting coverage on a whole bunch of MLPS today. All of these are at outperform. Copano (CPNO) Enterprise Holdings (EPE) Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMP). I guess it likes what it sees.
No coporate headlines so far this morning. News as it breaks this morning.
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Last hour coming up.
Late first post of the day,my apologies as i had to run into nyc early this morning and just got back. MLPS opened lower on the index, rallied higher and are now lower again and near the lows of the day as interest rates are exerting some pressure. The 10 year is near 4.98% and the dow is down 100+ points. No news this morning but A G Edwards did upgrade E V Partners to buy from hold.
The Atlas crowd leads the losers list today after yesterday's big gains. ATLS is down 1 and change and APL and AHD are down 80 cents apiece. Calumet (CLMT)and Breitburn(BBEP) are both lower by 70 cents or so. Winners include Duke Midstream (DPM) and Constellation Partners (CEP) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH)which is back near 95 again.
Monday, June 04, 2007
Not much change on the losers list. Buckeye Partners (BPL) is down 37 cents. They had the terrorist pipeline plot on their pipes but i'm not sure this is actually driving prices. Nustar Holdings is down fractionally as is Linn Energy (LINE)
Copano (CPNO) is down 1. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT), Linn Energy (LINE) and Constellation Partners (CEP) all down fractions but with no news driving any issue.
Now we know that somebody knew something about Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) as they are making a big asset purchase from Anandarko. More importantly they are pre-announcing distributions for next year as they plan to go to 3.80 to 4 dollars per unit from the current $3.44 annual. Holders of Atlas Holdings (AHD) will see their distributions go up 70% in 2008. Atlas America (ATLS) will be a big winner gain on this news. 2 weeks ago the stock jumped 7 points on the Atlas Resouce (ATN) big purchase. As per Atlas Pipeline(APL) it is one of the highest yielding MLPS at just under 7% perhaps becuase it has a history of uneven distribution growth and failed mergers. But this deal changes all that. A 6% yield takes this stock to 65 bucks. Atlas Amercia (ATLS) is up 3 and change in the premarket.Atlas Holdings (AHD) is bidding up 2 in the pre-market. No indication on Atlas Pipeline (APL). Friedman Billings is raising its price target to 54 bucks on APL from 52. Too low imho.
Not often we've had to focus on world events impacting an MLP but we have that this morning. Over the weekend a terror plot to blow up the pipelines to JFK Airport in New Yokr City was discovered. Here are the links to a series of stories on the subject but the pipes that run the oil from New Jersey to JFK belong to Buckeye Partners (BPL). I'm not sure what kind of impact this is going to have on the share price but my bet would be that if it sells off on the news it would provide buyers with a buying opportunity.
Not much else happening this morning news wise and no other upgrades or downgrades. The MLP index is rallying back to the old highs in the face of a ten year rate running back to nearly 5%.
So if it seems to have been discounted but i can't help but wonder when rising rates begin to squeeze MLPS. I have to think that a break through 5% will raise eyebrows and if we break above 5.25% it could let the air out of the balloon in a more serious fashion. But so far not much impact in rising rates other than forcing MLPS into a sideways pattern. I would still bet on an upside breakout.
Friday, June 01, 2007
Not sure whats going on with Atlas Pipeline Partners which is off the high of the day but traded as high as 52.90.
Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is the big winner today as it is breaking out to new all time highs up 1.40 on volume. Holly Partners (HEP) Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are up over a buck. Fractional winners include Oneok LP (OKS) Crosstex LP (XTEX), Duke Midstream (DPM), K-Sea (KSP) and Teppco (TPP).
On the losers list Calumet LP (CLMT) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are down fractionally but there are no outstanding losers out there.
The headline is the big question today because in my view a decisive move above 4.90% will put pressure on mlp prices. The rally off the 319 low on the MLP index has been impressive and the chart look would imply at least a challenge to the 336 high. 8:30 AM and the employment numbers loom large.
No corporate news that i could find this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. I am working this morning but i will update around mid morning.