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Thursday, May 22, 2008

BLOW OFF MODE CONTINUES



Crude oil just keeps right on going hitting 135.09 whiile you were sleeping. Its off those highs but still up another dollar. Its gotten ridiculous in here...although i thought it did 2 weeks ago but then again thats me. The USO could correct to the moving averages and still leave the uptrend in tact. So a move to say 95 would correspond with a 115 ish oil price. Thats 20 bucks from here.


A few of you btw may be confused about the DUG which is the Powershares Ultra short oil and gas. Many of you wondered how the DUG finished up yestereday while oil was up 4 bucks. Well the answer is that the DUG follows the oil and gas stocks which reversed yesterday and closed lower based on the XOI and XNG indexes. If oil corrects hard the equity should fall hard as well...especially if the stock market has entered some sort of corrective mode. My average price is 29 as i laddered in over the last 2 weeks. I want to emphasize that this is for a short term trade and if we get back to the low 30s...i will be selling. BTW the DUG did a key reversal yesterday. Equity tends to lead in these things.

The MLP index closed above 300 and traded at 302 intra-day yesterday. If the market has entered a corrective phase we will get pulled down but unless we see a complete energy collapse i expect us to outperform given that the pipe issues and credit issues appear to be gone.


This morning we have stock futures bouncing a bit but i think its a low confidence move. No news and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning.. News item from Williams (WPZ) yesterday talking about expanding capacity in this enviornment.

So get set for another day of exciting trading. Cost me 60 bucks yesterday to fill up my truck. Went to the Yankee Game. 2 tickets, parking, 1 sausage and peppers, 1 hot dog, 1 pretzel, popcorn, 2 sodas. Add gasoline and tolls and the night cost me over 200 bucks. And i sat in the nosebleeds! But it was cap night so we got 2 baseball caps! Glory!

Finally in politics I have been hoping Hillary would stay in the race purely for entertainment purposes. And she is not disapointing me.

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