They just did not like the nat gas number. The frustration continues.
Dow up 140 and mlps up 2.30. Plains All American (PAA) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) are up 1 or more and lead the winners list. Only 5 or 6 mlps are flat or lower and only by pennies.
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About Me
- joewxman
- a meteorologist with a knack for trading and investing in MLPS! I also like horse racing, enjoy cigars and a good port wine.
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7 comments:
Joe. Reference your 8:17 AM post this morning. Looked at TNH in the past as a possible MLP-diversification play. The price quoted on Yahoo! Finance at about 11:30 AM ET was $105.29. With a $2.22 quarterly distribution to be made in Aug, this annualizes to 8.43%, which looks pretty good. However, a 5-year Yahoo chart shows a base in 2005-06 in the $12-$25 range, the average of the last 12 quarterly distributions and the one scheduled for Aug is $2.36. My amateur analysis is looking for a distribution of $2.36 or better and a price $25 to $50 tops. What say you?
Thanks,
JCarroll
Oh, meant to add, according to a letter to potential fertilizer purchasers and, I guess potential investors, on their internet site, they anticipate their 2009-10 fertilizer year, just started, to return to normal following the run-up in demand over the 2007-08.
You have to go back and re-calculate the distributions on TNH because it swings widely from quarter to quarter due to their business. So they have payed out 6 dollar distribtutions or more in third and forth quarters over the last couple of years. You cannot annualize the 2.22 payout. It also is a glorified potash play so it has some growth premium in it as well.
Joe. Where did you get your TNH info on 3rd & 4th qtr distributions for the past couple years; it may be in error. (I think the numbers I quote below and accurate and from reliable sources and my calculator & I produced accurate results, but as the big guys say, they are thought to be accurate but no guarantees.) According to Yahoo! Finance dividend info, and it is consistent with an annual distribution chart at the TNH internet site, the CY07Q3 distro was $2.10 (paid 11/07), CY07Q4 distro was $4.45 (paid 2/08; this is the biggest quarterly distro Yahoo! shows since 4/92), CY08Q3 distro of $2.80 (paid 11/08), and CY08Q4 distro $2.97 (paid 2/09). Further the table at the TNH site shows annual CY04-CY08 distributions (consistent with the Yahoo! quarterly distro information) that totaled $29.34, for an average of $5.868 per year; producing an annualized average yield of 5.57% (based on the $105.29, 11:30 AM ET quote). The average annual yield of 5.57% is not bad, if the growth since the 2005-06 base ($12-$25 range) continues. I doubt the growth continues on that pace, based on the letter referenced in my second post above at the TNH site, suspect the share price will fall over the next year or so, coming off the run-up from 2005 and commodities boom and subsequent bust that started last July (soft commodities included).
What say you? And, I love being an amateur analyst, along with being an income investor. I also love your site and read you daily, even though I comment less frequently.
Thanks,
JCarroll
whopps sorry..i was typing to fast and forgot to recheck. my fault. I wanted to make sure you had checked back for the distribution data because it does vary..which you did. Now what say i? My guess and that is all it is here...is that TNH gets a premium price multiple because its in the " shit" business. I have read that 25 to 50 dollar price arguement by many people on various boards over the last few years. If you have a buy order at those levels you are still waiting.
For my taste the stock is a little to rich and a little too volitile. If you look at the other "shit" stocks they trade at high pe's and with non existent yields. Granted they are differnt animals (non mlps) but it could be the reason why TNH sells for perhaps 2 to 3 times what you might think it should.
Again for me its a little to risky.
Joe. Thanks for the dialogue. Like you, I think TNH is a "little to rich" right now, but I can tolerate the distributions volatility if the trend turns back up. Think I will watch it for a quarter or 2, see how the earnings and distro's hold up (hopefully increase), and look for an entry point considerably closer to the 25-50 range. Interesting, it closed today down $1.49 (-1.38%) from its yesterday closing price, on a day when the S&P 500 was up 2.33% and the AMZ index was up 0.76%. I think the investor class anticipates Obama's Cap-and-Trade (Cap-and-Tax) and socialized health care system bills are, at least, not going to pass in their current Obama-Pelosi-Reid inspired forms. Did not check the other "shit" stocks. If TNH gets back towards 50 and the Nov distro moves up towards or exceeds the $2.36 distro average noted in my first post, I will probably buy 100, maybe 200, shares.
I also have my eye on a 1997 Corvette; 6-speed manual transmission, 345 H.P., and only 18K miles. It has air conditioning, but is black (don't like black cars because they show dirt too well and absorb too much heat on a sunny day, which is the kind of day I would want to drive it). It has been on the dealer's lot since spring and, if it is still there after Labor Day, I just may first obtain permission from the wife, cash in a few MLPs (only if it would be at a capital gain, which they currently are), and then drive the Corvette and make an offer if it impresses me as much as I think it will.
Thanks again,
JCarroll
Joe. Let me also add that I respect your opinions and agree with your bullish inverse head-and-shoulders call.
JCarroll
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