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Thursday, July 01, 2010

NEW QUARTER BEGINS...
AND YOU CAN THANK THE ASSHOLE!


Okay the new quarter starts today and i guess we will get the answer to the question i've been posting for over a week now. Was the end of quarter run into bonds and mlps and the end of quarter selling in everything else part of something bigger or part of the big pile-on. Yields on the 10 year are down to 2.95% which puts mlps at a very wide spread...almost 4 points. Now by 2008 standards when spreads went to the moon this is low but it is above the normal long term range. And since i think what's going on here is much different (no Lehman unwind), it is possible that mlps could go higher while the rest of the market goes nowhere or down. And mlps are rising while energy stocks in general hit new lows almost daily. We have BP to thank for that to some degree but that group going down does not say good things about the economy.

The XOI index of big energy stocks is not down to its 2008 or 2009 lows but it's not that far away. Frankly i'm amazed that MLPS have been able to stage almost unheard of outperformance while the rest of energy is getting shunned. But when you do nothing other than throw off cash in a deflationary enviornment; that apparently is an asset that somebody wants.
The one and 2 year chart comparisons here say it all. How long can this divergence go on? I guess as long as less than 3% isnt enough for some people...it may go on for quite a while. Still i have to wonder that if the market overall goes into some sort of deflationary implosing..how long before mlps do the same thing. Food for thought.

Okay new quarter brings lower futures after yesterday's 100 point loss on the dow. Everyone is screaming about the S&P breaking 1040. Nat gas numbers are out later this morning. Rates are flat ahead of the open. No corporate developements this morning so far and i don't expect any ahead of the holiday weekend. MLPS closed up 1 yesterday after being up nearly 4 earlier. Going to be an interesting day.

I guess it had to happen eventually but after 6 years of blogging, i've gotten popular enough that im getting this....so as a result i have to activate the moderation option. If you guys want to give the man a friendly thank-you just click on this and tell whoever it is to go hawk his stuff elsewhere. Sorry about having to put a monitor into the playground. If this is an isolated incident i will take it off.

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