UPTRENDS INTACT HOWEVER...

Its pretty much a no brainer her that the dow is heading back to its spring high around 11,200 and its also pretty much a no brainer that the bottom of the range is around 9800-10000 so we can certainly argue (and do) that this may be the new normal for us as we swing back and forth from bottom to top; unless of course we take that 11,200 out decisively and on volume. So my guess is we get there in short order in the next couple of weeks and then outcome might hinge on the election outcome. Or perhaps it will be buy the rumor sell the news.

MLPs meanwhile just continue on their merry way higher and as far as an upside target..well who knows? My best guess here is that we move at least in line with other market averages. This of course assumes interest rates remain flat or at least don't start rising steadily. There is no sign of a final bottom in rates and the spreads between bonds and mlp yields will only get wider with the next round of distribution increases. The range historically (until the 2007 top) was mlp/treasury spreads of between 2 and 4%. The rule that worked was you bought mlps at a spread of 4% and sold them when they got to 2%. We have been outside that long term normal spread for nearly 3 years and as long as there is a perceived long term stress on the economy, its likely that the spreads will continue to remain outside the normal range.

We are in semi holiday mood today with banks and bond markets closed due to the Columbus day holiday. Stocks will trade a full day on sub normal volume and i doubt we'll get anything meaninful today. We are starting the day with a slight bullish bias. Energy for the most part is down a touch ahead of the open. Rates are unch in their closed enviornment. And for mlps there is no news and there are no upgrades or downgrades.

Saw this over the weekend on Oneok LP (OKS) by Jim Jubak who is a fairly reasonable anal-ist. Its short but to the point.