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Wednesday, June 22, 2011


There was a lot of buzz yesterday over the solid tape action and the idea that maybe the dow correction that began at 12,800 has ended at 11,900. I have to admit that the action over the last few days with the Greek tragedy as the backdrop looks rather impressive. The dow chart certainly has the feel of a trading bottom but lets clear the moving averages and get back above them before we sound the all clear signal. Still based on the feel of the tape, the odds that the corrrection is over seem pretty good.

Which leads me now to the nat gas chart. Notice we seem to be in this mode of higher lows and higher highs with each of these recent mini legs and we may have seen another low at 10.95 on Monday. So if that is the case the next leg up could mean a ride to 12.80 on the UNG chart or perhaps 5.00 on the cash nat gas market. This is all happening by the way in the context of longer term bottom that seems to be forming here.

Meanwhile MLPS did very well yesterday with a 6 point plus gain and we are right at the moving averages so the next challenge is to get above 367 on volume. 350 appears to be the bottom of the range. As long as we dont hear anything out of left field about taxation, we should be moving in line with the overall tape.

Corporate developements this morning from Regency Partners (RGNC) and Energy Transfer (ETE) as they continue to expand their relationship. You have to wonder if ETE may one day swallow up RGNC but they have to close the deal on Southern Union first. No other news and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

Stock futures are a little lower after the Greeks once again kick the can down the road. Fed speak later today will be watched for any changes in verb/noun/adjective/adverb placements in the statement. The dollar is a little higher , rates a little lower, and later this morning we get oil inventory numbers which always move the markets.

Seeking Alpha has a piece on 3 mlps and it mentions Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) as a speculative play. CEP is the last mlp to remain in "penny stock land (under 5 bucks) although it trades on the AMEX. No distribution is in sight but if the company is doing the right things to get there one day then it might be worth the play. But it is not for the faint of heart by any means.

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