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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

FED DAY WILL LEAVE US TWISTING IN THE WIND?


If i hear one more time about "Operation Twist" which, unless you live in a hole in the ground, is probably the most telegraphed fed move in recent history. And since everyone seems to know about this i would think its all baked into the market. If the fed does more it could be viewed as bad because it may just send the signal that recession is imminent. Meanwhile the politics for the fed is getting rougher as republican leaders sent the fed a letter saying essentially to" stop doing what your doing, its not working!" Meanwhile Europe is down this morning which is putting a little pressure on stock futures ahead of the open.

MLPS meanwhile continue to benefit from the lifting of the tax cloud as the Obama administration has given up on trying to tax corporate jets and the like since the union machinists have told him that they are against it. We saw mlps up on Monday with the dow down 100 and yesterday they closed higher again. What was particularly interesting to me is that UBS downgraded Nustar (NS) and one or 2 others yesterday and even those stocks closed higher. So im thinking that MLPS will continue to outperform unless the overall market goes into some sort of death spiral, or if a major bank in Europe gets unwound, or if a country like Greece were to go under. But we of course know that those things just don't happen.

We don't have any corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Europe is lower, oil is lower, gold is lower, and the euro is lower. Again its all about the fed at 2:15pm. Back in August on fed day we saw the fed come out with its "we're not raising rates for 2 years" statement. The market after 2:15pm initially edged higher, then dropped to minus 200 to 10,600 and then at 2:45pm mounted a rally that took us to plus 300 by days end. Something tells me more volatility is ahead of us after 2:15pm.

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