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Monday, December 12, 2011


We are entering the last 3 weeks of 2011 and there are 2 ways we can look at the short term future of mlps. This group has been among the years better performers. We started the year with the index near 365. We've been as low as 320 and as high as 390. The index right now is up about 3% with a total return around 10% on average. Not bad with the S&P flat as of today's open. If we see a run for performance in the next 3 weeks, mlps could shoot up to 390 and challenge all time highs. If Europe spins out of control then we could see a move to sell in order to save profits. Honestly with these swings back and forth, i can't begin to guess which way we will go.

The dow chart in the short term is back at the very top of the range which is just above the 200 day moving average. We've been turned back from here when the rally peaked in October. This second peak comes on worse technicals but these days technicals don't seem to be working very well. We keep getting a years worth of moves in a matter of days so as long as that condition exists its hard to to predict which way we will go. Longer term i am not optimistic. MLPS at least should provide relative saftey barring some completely collapse in credit markets.

No news of consequence this morning on the tape for mlps and no upgrade or downgrades that i can find so far. Stock futures are following Europe which has given back all of its post summit gains. Rates in Italy, Spain, and France are higher this morning which is making the euro shakey. Its down to 1.325 this morning. A break below 132 could be important as that could be a level that sends some banks to the borrowing windows of the ECB in order to keep their doors open. Crude and nat gas are both down. Interest rates here are down as a flight to relative quality.

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