Down 8 days in a row...doesn't this chart look like a bottom is being put in? Unless of course we break below 12 on the close and collapse lower. If that happens it might be a signal that the economy may not recover.

STILL IN CORRECTIVE MODE....BUT...

We settled with a 5 point loss yesterday after settling there earlier in the day and then just mulling around those levels. We are right in the area where the correction could stop and turn up again. In a worst case scenario we could head down to 226ish at the 89 day movning average.

The weekly chart is showing support around the same areas and notice that the 34 week moving average is about to cross over for the first time in over 15 months. This is another positive sign for the longer term..assuming of course this actually happens. But we are in an area where there is a lot of support to keep the uptrend intact.

Not much on the news front this morning as the month of August continues to move right along. No upgrades or downgrades showing up. Oil is a little lower and natgas has now of course turned a little lower after opening higher. Nat gas is back down to its low of around 12 on the UNG and 3.20 ish on the futures. Again ..one of these days.....!!!!!

Finally here is something that should give you a bit of a laugh.

IN CORRECTION MODE

We're in the area of moving average support as the selloff accellerates a bit today. Down over 5 on the mlp index. All mlps and gps are down and we have a slew of 1 point plus losses in the likes of Exterran ((EXLP ) Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and the leading loser is Alliance Resource which is down nearly 2. No surprise really and probably long over due. We could make a case for 225 on the mlp index on the downside but i would think that would be as far as this correction takes us. Any breach of that and its because something more sinister is going on.

On the end of a three day weekend here so i will be back to normal blogging tomorrow.

IF NAT GAS CANT RALLY ON THIS

THEN IT WILL NEVER RALLY!

That map you see above is a computer model forecast 10 days from now. It shows a hurricane in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Below we see the nat gas chart which continues to look like a chart thats making a bottom. Of course I've been pushing that meme since July 1st and so far we have done no better than trade in a range on the UNG with 12 at the bottom and about 16 at the top.
I cant imagine nat gas getting any cheaper than it already is unless the economy completely falls apart. One of these days. MLPS are correcting in stair step fashion and you can see we are hugging just above the moving average support lines. So far all it is is a correction in the bull trend. At some point the primary trend will resume unless of course we are at the beginning of a new trend. Never a dull mommnet.

This morning is looking like a typical Friday which means not much movement after the open. Summer weekends are dwindling down to a precious few especially this summer here in the northeast which has not been very good weather wise. Crude is flat. Nat gas is showing us a few pennies of rally. Stock futures were a little higher and now have turned flat.

The tropics will be cooking as mentioned earlier so for the latest on whatever is going on here is the latest sat pic and the hurricane center main page.

The mlp index is down by half a point after being up earlier but most of the big mlps are down fractionally causing the drag. Markwest (MWE) is losing 1 on its stock offering. Otherwise most mlps are in a range of plus 50 cents to minus 50 cents. Nothing stands out as we wait for the market which is holding up well considering the horrible retail sales number.

Nat gas inventories were less bearish than usual but that matters nothing as nat gas just cat get out of its own way...basically flat on the day right now after being higher earlier.

MORE EQUITY OFFERINGS.

Markwest Energy (MWE) is joining the long list of mlps doing a public offering which given the 40% price rise in mlps and a doubling of the price of this one off its lows and you should not be surprised. The stock is down over 1 in the pre market. The behavior lately of mlps doing equity offerings is that they tend to do nothing for a week or two afterward and then resume their march upward. So many mlps have come to the well in the last few months ( and some have come twice) that the good news is they may not come to the well again for the rest of the year.

I wasnt too crazy about the close yesterday technically but that was just one day and this morning we will start higher although the futures came off sharply when retail sales showed a drop. Still the market looks like it wants to rally and 9500 on the dow is resistence in my view. MLPS are flooring near its rising moving averages so 250 now looms as the short term top to get through.

Not much else going on this morning. Energy is higher with oil near 72 bucks. Nat gas once again is testing its lows and is going nowhere. Inventory numbers for nat gas will be out at 10:30am and for the most part i think nat gas is trading down this week into the nunbers so shorts may take the opportunity to cover. One of these days. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list but i would continue to use downgrades as an opptorunity to go long. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is the latest example as they were downgraded earlier this week and the stock sold down to under 41 and is looking to open over 43 this morning. You have to be nimble but it is doable.

MLPS IN CORRECTION MODE

We're continuing that trip down to the moving averages in stair step orderly mode (so far) and we came close to touching the 34 day support. These things always seem to happen when something else is going on. Maybe its the fed meeting. Still the trend higher is intact. Energy is the focus when the oil numbers come out at 10:30am Nat gas continues its decent this morning which of course we know is going to zero. Free nat gas everyone!

I sold out my position in National Resource Partners (NRP) after its earning last week and took a small loss. I just felt that given the underperformance my money would be better off elsewhere. This morning Wells Fargo downgrades the stock to underperform. Me selling and Wells downgrade are purely coincidental. Western Gas (WES) doubles its earnings and calls its performance "strong" which is a nice thing to accomplish given the world we live in.

Not much else happening this morning. Stock futures are flat right now and i would expect markets not to do much until the fed announcement at 2:15pm.

237 on the mlp index is the moving average support line and the index right now is at 240. That support line could be touched soon.

EARNINGS, DOWNGRADES, TROPICS

News flow is a bit heavy this morning as we have earnings to chew through. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) announced earnings last night and so did EV Partners (EVEP). They reported a 2% decrease in distributable cash flow which caught my attention. Conference call going on right now. Markwest Energy (MWE) reports quarterly numbers and updates us on Marcellus Shale. Finally Boardwalk Partners (BWP) is doing another offering of shares; 7 million worth coming to market. And finally we have the GP of Enterprise (EPE) reporting earnings.

In the land of downgrades we have Morgan Stanley (MS) downgrading Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) to market perform from outperform. Lately these downgrades have been a buying opportunity. Stock is down 1.50 before the open. So we have corporate issues to move prices this morning. Also as we open this morning nat gas has just taking a hit of selling along with stock futures.

Okay its a down open by over 2 points on the mlp index being led lower by Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) as its down nearly 3 right now. EV Partners(EVEP) is down fractionally at the moment so earnings seem to be priced in. Boardwalk (BWP) is down 1 on the offering. Right now most mlps are lower with mainly fracitonal moves.

The tropics are heating up but right now the energy market just shruggs and nat gas goes down.

Pretty quiet day so far with the mlp index down a few ticks and being on either side of unchanged. Half of the universe of mlps are flat to higher and the other half a little bit lower. Nothing really outstanding on either side of the ledger so we crawl along on what looks like a consolidation day; unless of course buyers or sellers take the upper hand late in the day.

STAIR-STEP PATTERN AGAIN. A TOP?

Mon day morning and we have another weekly adventure ahead of us. We finished last week down as the last of the ex-distribtions worked their way through (barring the one or two still pending) . We have hit a wall at 250 on the index and we could still venture down to the moving averages below. We've done that before in this rally phase so it would be no surprise if that were to happen. Those support lines are not that far below us so it would not be that painful if we went there. Those points have been buy areas this year and there are no indications that has changed.


Some news drivers this morning as earnings are out from Regency Partners (RGNC) and we also have numbers from Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) which is increasing its reserve estimates from Marcellus shale. Wachovia is downgrading DCP Midstream to market perform from outpeform in upgrade downgrade land. So there are some individual drivers that will impact these mlps. The moves have been to buy the rumour sell the news on many mlps in this quarterly cycle. No premarket moves at this time.

Stock futures are a little lower this morning. Oil is also a little lower and natgas is a little higher. We have the tropics being watched as activitiy is beginning to develope, although it is far away from the Gulf of Mexico. Also computer models are showing increasing tropical activity over the next few weeks although who knows about the specifics. Nat gas will hopefully have something to trade higher on since nothing else seems to work.

MARKETS BACK IN RALLY MODE!

Stronger employment numbers have put some gas in the tank this morning and futures have turned sharply higher ahead of the open. Its Friday which means the usual slower pace of trading. MLPS had one of those sharp down days yesterday being off over 6 at one point before coming back to minus 4 on the day. All sorts of distortions with ex distribtuions being the primary driver here; some people buy these things just for the payout and then sell. If we have reverted back to normal trading patterns we will work through all this in the next few days and then move on.


Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI) has been one of the victims of this downturn as the charts show. Not pretty and no bounce off the lows in single digit land. Earnings news came out last night and the company updated and raised guidance. This of course is not a bad thing however we have no indication if and when the distribution will resume and that ultimately will determine whether can ever truly recover. If that day every comes this one could move to double digit price land in a hurry. It could be a longer term lottery ticket for the braver among you.

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) also put up earnings numbers last night. This is another one that has been victimized going from 50 to 5..now in the land of the 7 handle. No sign of a distribution here anytime soon. Inside the press release we have this.

the Partnership will not pay any further distributions for the remainder of 2009. Beginning with the first quarter 2010, Atlas Pipeline may pay distributions if, pro forma for such payment, its senior secured leverage ratio, as defined in the credit agreement, is less than or equal to 2.75x and minimum liquidity, as defined in the credit agreement, are satisfied.

So we have to wait on this one. Another potential lottery ticket if the market improves. Atlas has a firm tone in the premarket with some trades even with yesterday. Nothing yet on Crosstex.

Your stock price goes up you do a public offering and here comes one from K-Sea LP (KSP) and the stock is down 1.60 in the premarket.On the upgrade downgrade list Wunderlich raises its target on Legacy (LGCY) from 15 to 17 and is keeping it at a buy.

Energy is firm this morning with stock prices ahead of the open. Interest rates are higher and the dollar is rallying. The open looms.

A trip below 240 came to a grinding halt and we are one point above the lows. Still down 5 on the mlp index.

The 34 day moving average on the mlp index is around 236 and rising. If we get there i would be using that as a buy point especially if comes in a big spike down. Its worked already twice before and right now the trend is your friend.

It looks like a bottom but i've said that before about nat gas. Still one of these days....!!!! Getting to re-accumulate a position today as 2 of my price points have been met so far.

MLPS are down 3.50 on the index but really its hard to tell how much of this is actual selling vs just heavy profit taking from a big move combined with ex-distribution trading. My feeling is that it is the latter on a lot of these mlps. Also nasdaq mlps when they go ex-dis trade the change without any adjustments. For example Exterran Partners (EXLP) is down 2 bucks but nearly 50 cents of that loss is the ex distribution. Almost all mlps are down so far today.

Natural Resource Partners (NRP) isnt down by that much on its earnings..off about 40 cents and it was actually up for awhile earlier. Perhaps the statements about a bottom in the coal market are putting support underneath this one.

Keeping an eye on nat gas this morning as we seem to be selling ahead of what is supposed to be a bearish number. Setting buy points on the UNG below 13.60 in case we see a spike down..and then a reversal! I have it all figured out don't I! Now all we have to do is get the market to follow my suggestion.

Down after a flatish start for mlps. Nothing tragic however.

MORE EARNIGNS!

Looks like we are at another one of these steps on the mlp chart which will lead to another pull back to the 34 day moving average or we can just another leap upward on the quest for 260-270. Hard to say which way we'll go and it will depend of course on whether the markets tail wind continues to blow.
One of the things that i do is teach pilots and dispatchers basic meteorology and one thing i've learned is that the stronger the headwind the better the performance on takeoff and landings. It provides better lift. So perhaps from the standpoint of the economy, the headwinds at this point can continue to provide lift for us in this bullish enviornment. What can i say. I've come off a double shift and lack of sleep. Im thinking deep this morning!

We have lots of earnings to chew through this morning. Leftover last night we have good numbers from Plains All American(PAA). Not so good numbers from Natural Resource Partnes (NRP) which lowers guidance for the year. A line in the press release is worth noting where there are signs of a bottom in the coal market. El Paso Partners (EPD) puts up earnings and we have reports from Genesis (GEL) and Williams Partners (WPZ). Targa Resouces (NGLS) has earnings on the table and Exterran Partners (EXLP) puts earnings up that has some things to chew through.

Linn Energy (LINE) has earnings this morning and they also announce they are buying some assets in the Permain basin. Distributable cash flow here is at 1.21 x which is a nice number to see. Also nice to see that mlps are stepping up to the plate again and doing some deals. Linn is up 40 cents in the pre market. Inergy LP (NRGY) is down 1.50 and trading actively in the premarket as they are doing a public offering. Its their second public offering in 6 months as they take advantage of the rise in unit prices. And why not! I would look for some more coming to the equity well over the next few weeks as mlps take advantage of unit prices that in some cases are at 52 week highs.

Stock futures are higher this morning and we have nat gas up ahead of the nat gas inventory numbers at 10:30am. Always a mover there. Tropics are still relatively dead but one of these days it will wake up.

MLPS seem to be behaving the way they used to in normal markets which means that we tend to sell off a bit as we move through distributions and the action the last few days seems to confirm this. The open approaches.

BIG EX-DISTRIBUTION DAY AS MLPS DECLINE!

Down 4 on the mlp index but we were down much more as today is a big ex distribution day in MLP land and that is impacting prices. Still the drop is not entirely surprising given the magnitude of the move.

On a double shift today so blogging is a bit light. Back to normal tomorrow.

Wunderlich is cutting Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) to marketweight from equal weight which counters Morgan Stanley's move. Also we have Morgan Stanley cutting Sunoco Logistics (SXL) to marketweight from overweight.

GIVE BACK AT THE START!

Yesterdays closes above 1000 on the S&P and 2000 on the nasdaq are inviting a little giveback and profit taking this morning but the dow has 9500 right above it which is that spike peak back in September of 2008. We'll see what happens when we get there. That line could be a place for a consolidation correction.



The mlp index is getting adjusted this morning for distributions so its starts the day at 248.32 after being up 3 yesterday. This morning we have earnings from Inergy LP and Inergy GP (NRGY,NRGP) all on one press release! Oneok LP (OKS) has earnings due after the close. And of course we are continuing a round of ex-distributions today and tomorrow.

The tropics are going to heat up on the Atlantic side any day now and there is a wave in the far eastern Atlantic which will bear watching along with a disturbance on the African coast about to move off. This could be a driver for nat gas which ran back to 4 dollars yesterday. Crude this morning is down about a buck after getting over 71 bucks yesterday.

Morgan Stanley is cutting Plains All American (PAA) to equal weight from overweight but it is raising Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) to overweight from equalweight. The latter 2 moved sharply higher yesterday so this may have been priced in to a degree. Lately the downgrades have been good opportunities to buy shares from panic sellers which is typical when your in bull mode.

Stock futures are softer this morning but nothing tragic so lets bring on the open!

NEW WEEK, NEW MONTH, GOING HIGHER!

We are starting the day strong with S&P futures up over 9 points and we have oil and nat gas up nicely pre-open. So its a higher start to the day barring a catastrophe between now and 9:30am, Dow chart is looking at 9500 as the wall which takes us back to last September.



We of course in MLP land have gone above last September's high and it appears that we are aiming for 260-270 which likes only 10% above where we are now. Tail winds continue so no change in the outlook.

Holly Partners (HEP) is aquiring assets from Holly Corp (HOC) which goes right to the bottom line. This morning we are waiting for earnings from Nustar (NS,NSH) and Magellan (MMP,MGG) and i will post when they cross the wire. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list.

Tropics are still quiet but one of these days we will see something impact energy prices for traders in the short term.

THE MARCH TO GREATNESS CONTINUES!
RACHEL ALEXANDRA!

AMEN..ITS FRIDAY!

We have finally arrived to Friday which means a weekend which means Saratoga this weekend to try and make some money at the racecourse! I will be twittering my choices while there and you can follow it on the sidebar. For MLPS Friday trading usually calms down after 10:30 am and not much happens. We have GDP coming in and there is a little selling on the news going on there. But the day is young yet.

Some newsdrivers this morning as Exterran Partners (EXLP) announces an unchanged distribution from last quarter. Unchanged distributions are okay for now but i think we are going to start to see the market differentiate between the distirbution growers and the non growers as we head into the next quarter so new money might be wise to find its way to those mlps which have the best prospects for growing distributions going foward. Also this morning we have Wells Fargo downgrading Holly Partners (HEP) to market perform from outperform. And we have earnings from Capital Products Partners (CPLP) and they are also annoucing ammendments of loan terms.

Crude and Nat gas are following the markets so they are both down after being up earlier. The dollar is a little weaker. So bring on the open!

ONE DAY CORRECTION OVER WITH!

Well that was quick and relatively painless. The mlp index dropped 9 points intraday and bounced right off the 240 old resistence and closed at 243. So with stock futures rallying this morning sharply we will be up as well at the open.
The chart seems to be marching along and if we stretch it out and go further back in time it is evident that the repair job continues. It still seems to me like we're headed back to 260-270 on the index which takes us back to the 2007 base. That base ultimately took us to the alltime highs near 340. I think a lot has to happen to get us back there but for now we are still leading the way.

This morning we have some earnigns news from Holly Partners which is also ex distribtuion. It may or may not matter but the company beat on earnings which is always a nice thing. Teppco (TPP) puts up its numbers but they are merging with Enterprise (EPD) anyway. And finally TC Pipelines posts earnings this morning. Eagle Rock (EROC) which resides in the land of single digits is paying out a distribution this quarter. Amerigas (APU) is on the upgrade downgrade list this morning as UBS downgrades it from buy to neutral.

Crude is higher this morning after a 4 dollar decline yesterday. Nat gas is up but we all know that it is going to zero and will essentially be given away. i will keep saying that until it rallies. As we said early stock futures are higher with the dow going to open up 100 points. Bull market with short sharp corrections that end very quickly remain the order of the day and that was the action of the last 2 days. 1000 on the S&P is doable today!

MLPS having one of those sharp correction days with the index down over 7 and we could take it back to 231 on the index and still be okay in this uptrend. Sharp corrections in uptrends are a bullish sign so no worries here.

Almost the entire group is down today and many mlps are down 1 to 2 points on the day. Alliance Resource (ARLP) got downgraded by Wells Fargo and its down 2 points on the day. Its the biggest loser. Energy as a whole taking gas today. Nat gas of course is down and heading to zero.

STILL IN THE UPTREND

One day doesn't change anything and yesterday's down day in MLP land was modest with a 1.25 loss at the close. I put up the weekly chart this morning and you can see that the next little hump of resistence on the chart is around 270. That might take some time to chew threw and if we get there it takes the annual move to the 60%+ range since 01/01/09. Still no sign of a top.

This morning we have news leftover from last night as Buckeye Partners (BPL) puts up earnings and a distribution boost. And of course what is good for the LP is good for Buckeye Holdings (BGH). We have also a distribution announcement for Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) both on the same release so you get 2 releases for the price of one press release. DCP Midstream (DPM) announces a distribution unchanged from last quarter.

Softer futures numbers this morning are on the board this morning for stocks and energy. Crude oil numbers are due out at 10:30 am and that should be a market mover. The tropics remain quiet so no upside from that side the equation. Headlines as they break this morning.

Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) leads a short list of winners up over 1 point. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is adding a fraction to 59. And there are a few others showing plus signs but overall the MLP index is down 3 as we see some profit taking going on in a soft dow which is down 65 points as of this post. No surprise since they can't go up everyday.

DCP Midstream(DPM) is down 1.75 and Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down over 2; the latter on earnings. Most mlps are down fractions to 1 point.

ITS SEPTEMBER OF 2008?

After all the turmoil we seem to be moving headstrong in mlp land to early September pre-Lehman days as the index has broken above 250 and that means that we should head eventually in this rally back to 260-270. Credit markets continue to mend. Corporate bonds are rallying and we are seeing deals beginning to appear again in our space. There is reason for optimism even after an almost 50% gain since last Christmas!

Speaking of deals Magellan Midstream (MMP) is picking up some assets out of bankruptcy court
and they also announced their distribution yesterday which had no quarter to quarter increase. And you have to love E V Partners (EVEP) which for the second quarter in a row increases their distribution by one tenth of one cent! " Who loves you baby" Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) is doing some business with Targa Natural Resources. We also have earnings from Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) which include a distribtuion increase. And what's good for the LP is usually good for the GP as we see a distribtuion boost for Alliance Resource GP. And Regency Partners (RGNC) puts up its distirbution announcement for the quarter. Pretty busy morning on the news front.

Stock futures begin the morning lower and there is a down day out there somewhere. Energy is lower across the board. Nat gas of course is lower as well because it only just goes down! Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. So we proceed to what appears to be a weaker open and then we'll see where we go from there.

Up over 3 points this morning on the mlp index with the dow pulling back. MLPS show no signs of a selloff. Lots of 1 point gap opens this morning and we have quite a few mlps up 1 point or more like Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Holly Partners HEP) Enbridge (EEP) Plains All American (PAA) and Energy Transfer (ETP) and Teppco (TPP).

Losers are few and far between and they are down by just pennies for the most part. Buyers are probably coming in to get those distributions which will be seeing shortly.

Distribution news from Inergy Partners (NRGY) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) which ups the payout another 3 cents this quarter. Stock has been an impressive outperformer.

RALLY CONTINUES, HOWEVER????

Im not trying to spoil anyone's parade as the market remains in rally mode. At anytime we could see a sharp correction that should last no more than a day or 2. Perhaps it will be done in a matter of trading hours. What could set one of these pullbacks off? Who knows? We'll know it after the fact. The bottom line however is at this stage any sell offs should be bought until further notice.


MLPS continue to lead and show no signs of topping. 260-270 seems to be doable in here especially if dow stocks rally to 10000 and the S&P to say 1050-1100. Energy stocks and energy itself could be in focus this week as tensions between Iran and Israel continue to grow. Still waiting for nat gas to do something other than go down.

Earnings news this morning from Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Duncan Partners (DEP) which are pretty much the same thing in a sense as Dan Duncan controls both. Must be nice to be him every morning! Also posting this morning Boardwalk Partners (BWP) with a conference call underway as i post. And we have Ferrellgas (FGP) picking up some assets in the south central US. So we have some news items to chew through this morning. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Stock futures were higher but they have turned a shade lower this morning. Energy is higher except for nat gas which is a little lower.

MLPS are ripping their way higher up nearly points and putting distance between itself and the 240 level. More and more im convinced that we will take a run to 260-270 where there should be signficant resistence.

Sunoco Logistics is up 2 as today's big winner. Most mlps are up fractions to 1 point. Overall market is barely lower and is behaving in bull corrective mode. Nice way to finish the week.

Just saw this as Jesup and Lamont (two fabulous people i want you to know!) raised their target price on Sunoco Logistics by 2 dollars to 63 bucks and they have the stock at a buy!

WASTING NO TIME!

Its "breakout" time and yesterday's action puts the dow clearly up on the year and now we can by more time in this rally that began back in March. This morning we are going to have a bit of a Microsoft headache from their earnings but frankly the response here is really tame as when in rally mode any selling is met with buyers.
MLPS continue their march upward as well although we did pull back from the highs a bit yesterday. 240 is resistence and we are above it but we have not cleared it completely so its possible we could spend a little time consolidated in this area. Also for those of you who follow wave theory we could be at the beginning of a wave three move here. My view on all this technical stuff is that it works until it stops working. So for now we remain bullish on the markets and MLPS.
Friday's in mlp land tend to be rather quiet after the first half hour as we head into a summertime weekend. No news headlines this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Boardwalk Partners (BWP) raised its distribution last night in a leftover headline.

Crude is a little lower and nat gas which just cant do anything right is up after yesterdays decline. Stock futures are lower which is no surprise. The nasdaq winning streak should come to an end today.

Dow now up over 200 as the inverse head and shoulders pattern yields a breakout! MLPS up nearly 4 on the index as we are now back to pre-lehman levels for the index. Not quite yet perhaps for our portfolios.

Holly Partners (HEP) gives us a midday news item of a 1 cent distirbution increase and the stock is up a buck.

They just did not like the nat gas number. The frustration continues.

Dow up 140 and mlps up 2.30. Plains All American (PAA) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) are up 1 or more and lead the winners list. Only 5 or 6 mlps are flat or lower and only by pennies.

Dow just touched 9000 and the MLP index is up 2.50 as we push higher and above last September's high. We could be heading back for 260-270!

Distribution news from Global Partners (GLP) which sets the payout and Suburban Propane (SPH) which increases by three quarters of one cent!

Open coming in momments.

APPROACHING MAJOR BREAKOUT POINT!
MLPS MARCHING ON!

The daily dow chart has been building a massive inverse head and shoulders formation and we are reaching the point of breakout or fakeout here around the 9000 level. And if this level goes i'm looking for a massive rally that will occur fairly fast so be sure to keep your seatbelts fastened.

Those of us who reside in MLP land have seen the wind at our backs since before last Christmas and our bull market continues uninterupted. The index is up nearly 37% ytd and add 3 distributions (im including the one coming up ) and you are looking at total returns well north of 40%. Glory!

I dont mention this one too often since it is outside of the oil and gas arena..well maybe it is really in the gas arena if you think about it. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) has put up earnings and announces a 2.22 distribution. Holders of this mlp would have been taken through the bear market unscathed but they would have endured a few rides on the roller coaster.

Stock futures are higher this morning as earnings continue to be supportive. Crude is a little lower but nat gas is higher by 6 cents. It is beginning to show signs of relative outperformance with respect to crude. When the gas crude ratio sits around 20 and at historical highs the valuation is about as stretched as it can be. I continue to be bullish on nat gas. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning. And i still am not able to find out what if anything was going on with Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) which jumped 2 points on volume but with no news. Again if anyone hears anything please post it on the comments section.

Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) is up 2.67 on volume and no news that i can find. If anyone has a clue please post it in the comments section.

Otherwise we have been hugging the flat line plus or minus a few ticks all morning and the list is split down the middle with winners and losers. Other then MMLP there are no real standouts today in either direction. Natural Gas is rallying after the oil inventories came out. Not sure what is going on there but its up and im long and thats a good thing.

Not sure why Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) is up 2 dollars but it is! No news that i could find and there is volume here so it is meaningful. Upgrade maybe?

Markets have turned higher as have mlps as the index is up a fraction.

TC Pipelines (TCLP) boosts the payout..which is nice!

Btw forgot to mention crude numbers due out at 10:30am. Tropics should begin heating up soon but so far not much out there to worry about.

WINNING STREAK ENDS!

BUT NO DAMAGE

9 up days in a row was a very nice streak and that came to an end yesterday with a 1.02 decline and we are just above 240 to start Wednesday. The dow took its streak to 7 after yeserdays 60 point plus gain and we are closing in on 9000 on the dow.

Last night Sunoco Logistics (SXL) put up earnings which were solid on falling revenues and they raised the distribution which of course is our bottom line. After market trades yesterday took the stock up above its wall at 55. No other headlines out there this morning and nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list.

Crude is down a little this morning at the 65 level and nat gas is unchanged. Speaking of which Nat gas is about the only thing that has not rallied and in fact has made a new low in the last couple of weeks. We are at levels where historically its about as low as you can get. In the end i would think nat gas at the very least could get to 5 bucks in here especially if there is some sort of view that the economy may start to recover.

No one is using nat gas right now and there lies the issue. There is an almost endless supply of the stuff. Still at some point this has got to rally. I have been sounding this mantra since mid June and since then i've made 3 successful in and out trades on the UNG. I am very long again so i hope to see a nice run in the stuff.

Headlines as they break this morning as we move toward the 9:30am open.

The mlp index is now down by over 1 point as markets consolidate in here. Not unusual.

We're flat on the index after being higher most of the morning which really is understanable considering we're up so much in the last 2 weeks. A break may be in order and the 240 level is a logical place as it is the home of the early October 2008 high.

Buckeye Partners (BPL) leads the winners list with a 1 point plus gain. Fractional winners include Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG), Western Gas (WES) Legacy Partners (LGCY) and Exterran Partners (EXLP). The rally today is based more in the mid and smaller cap mlps as the bigger guys take a bit of a breather.

Holly Partners (HEP) is down about 1 on the Goldman downgrade. I stuck an order in this morning at 34.12 and got filled so i am in the money right now. Other losers include Energy Transfer (ETP) Enbridge (EEP) and Williams Partners (WPZ) which are down fractions but they have all had nice moves lately. We could be seeing some rotation in here and a rotational correction is a good thing.

Take a look at El Paso Partners (EPB) which comes along with a nice distribution boost and Goldman putting the stock on the conviction buy list while it takes Holly Partners (HEP) off the conviction buy list.

Open looking stronger as we get close to 9:30am

ARE WE ON THE VERGE OF SOMETHING?

Perhaps. Take a look at the MLP weekly chart and you will notice that we are moving right along the recovery phase and its not impossible that as markets continue to rally higher that we could be heading back to the 260-270 area where we once upon a time a few years ago spent time there consolidating on the road to 340.

The mlp daily chart is showing us that the index is trying now to take out its October 2008 high and this is significant resistence. We seem to be continuing on the road to recovery and the trend is your friend until further notice. The dow is up 6 days in a row and we are up 9 days in a row on the mlp index. Sooner or later we are going to get one of those short and sharp downdrafts. But for now if it happens thats all it will be.

Okay this morning we have a distribution increase for Western Gas (WES) and after the close today look for earnings and distribution news from Sunoco Logistics (SXL) which has been pretty much standing still for the last few weeks. And of course we will monitor for any other relevant headlines. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far.

Crude is up this morning and nat gas starts the day down by a few pennies. One of these days Nat gas will rally and rally strongly. Will it be the tropics that sets off the buying? Maybe. Maybe it will be the prospect for a very cold winter. NYC is experiencing its coolest July in 125 years and it is the second coolest on record so far. Stock futures are higher to start the day.

We raced over 241 at the open on the mlp index and have now pulled under 240 but still up 1.50 pts on the day. Overall market opened near the 8800 resistence and has now pulled back from there. Now we sit back and watch. 240 was a target of mine and i want to emphasize again we are now back to where we were before the hideous meltdown. 240 is an important level to watch here because i think if we break out above that..then we could make a run back to the 260-270 level.

Breitburn Energy (BBEP) is selling off more assets to pay down debt. Stock is bid up in the pre market. Also over the weekend here is one of those duh articles on mlps courtesy of the WSJ.

MONDAY MORNING RALLY AS

STOCKS JUST WANT TO GO UP!

Good morning to all on this monday morning. Im still on a double shift but thankfully this is the last day of this nonsense. Meanwhile stock futures are building strength this morning pre opennand we have the energy complex higher across the board. So mlps are set for a higher open as we are now ready to touch the 240 level. This would be a natural place for all of this to stop for awhile but keep an eye on the overall market because if the tape takes us decisively above 8800...maybe we can extend this mlp rally. The index started the year at 176 and we are now 62 points above that. That puts our 2009 gain in the group nearing 40% total return. Not too shabby.

A little early for breaking headlines here in the group but i will try to keep an eye on this during the morning. And we'll of course keep an eye on upgrades and downgrades. More later. And tomorrow i am back to normal.

Sorry again as i am on a double shift and running on 4 hours sleep...and another double tomorrow. MLPS closed higher today by over 3 points and we are at new highs for the year. Just about every mlp was up today with some nice 1 point plus gains in Holly Partners (HEP) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) which is closing in on new all time highs.

things get back to normal for me Monday.

MLP INDEX UP NEARLY 5!

Working double shifts this week making it very hard to blog but there is work around so i gotta take it. Sorry for the lack of posts as i will resume some sense of normalcy next Tuesday. Still we have an almost 5 point gain on the index and we nearing 233. Plains All American (PAA) is the first on the board with an unchanged payout but ups guidance to the high end of the range. Stock is up 1 and change and it is among a large list off winners that are up strong fractions to 1 point or more. Dow up 230 and crude is up. Of course nat gas is down after a dead cat bounce yesterday.

Not much time for more here. Will post if i can later.

Energy and energy stocks as a whole are holding a firm tone. The mlp index is up all of .25 but the list is showing more winners than losers. Most moves are fractional in nature...at least for now. Global Partners (GLP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) lead the winners list. Regency (RGNC) leads the smaller list of losers.

It feels to me like markets want to rally and 8250 once again held nicely and we are 100 points above it now. Nat gas is rallying after days of declines. Nothing but a dead cat bounce for now but at some point it has to start rising.

RALLY MODE!

Sorry for no posts yesterday as i was in the middle of 2 jobs..picking up a car and everything was all over creation. So let me catch up by saying that there were no big corporate developements. MLPS spent the day with other energy stocks closing higher but lagging everything else. But today energy seems to be movning up as crude is back over 61 and even (gasp) nat gas is up this morning (for now) so while it may be on its way to zero (free nat gas for all) it will not do it in a straight line. (Please read with sarcasm. Im long the stuff!).



Corporate developements this morning as Western Gas (WES) is buying up assets from Anadarko and its a 100 million dollar deal so its no small potatoes.

So we are rolling along with stock futures gaining strength this morning ahead of Goldman numbers. The entire energy complex is rallying in here. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. I just gave nat gas a look and it seems to be building a head of steam in here. The tropics remain dead which is pretty normal for mid July. Meanwhile i just want to point out that here in the NYC area we are experiencing the coldest July on record. We've been barely making it into the 80s let alone trying to get to 90. But of course the global warming Al Gore worshippers will tell you that things would be worse if it wern't for the warming! Lovely. They are always right.

OUTPERFORMANCE CONTINUES

This is has been an interesting week in several ways. We've had some painful days in the broadmarket and a couple of days of essentially doing nothing. It feels like summer. The mlp index has been showing strong relative outperformance on both down days and on up days which is a bit unusual in that much of the time if we have a sell-off one will lag the other by a day and then things even out over time. But MLPS have continued to consistently outperform in both directions which is indicating to me that money is coming in and on down days..very little is coming out. It could be we are seeing some across the board accumulation ahead of the next round of distributions and earnings.

This morning we have soft markets in both stocks and energy. Crude is decidedly under 60 bucks and nat gas which we know is going to zero is down a little. Speaking of crude i have begun buying the DXO which is the double crude oil and will probably accumulate more with oil under 60 bucks. Not much else happening this morning on the corporare side. No upgrades or downgrades on the list either. So it is shaping up to be a typical Friday in summer. We suggest limit orders on the buy or sell side and then head to the beach or pool as it is probable that not much will happen today.

BTW Ron Insana who was on CNBC for years and is on from time to time has turned strongly bullish and is predicting a big stock market rally is coming. I like Ron. I think he is a very sharp guy and i remember his very timely and gutsy call in 1998 when he called the market turn in the Asia currency crisis. He doesn't make these sorts of calls very often so i think its wise to pay attention in here.

Running up close to 225 and up over 4 points on the mlp index.

MLPS rolling along and moving higher with the index up 3.58 as of this post and over 224. DCP Midstream (DPM) Nustar (NS) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) are up 1 point or more. And we have a long list of fractional winners on the list as well.

Just a handful of losers at the lunchtime hour and none of them are news driven. Crude has broken below 60 bucks but energy stocks in general are moving higher. 220 has held!

STILL HOLDING ON AND NOW SOME UPSIDE!

I've been harping on this 220 level on the MLP index and it continues to hold along with the 34 day moving average. The dow looked like it was about to break down yesteday below 8100 when it turned around and closed higher and it looks to me like we could be back over 8250 again in short order. At least from the standpoint of a correction its been pretty orderly. Crude has corrected to 60 bucks and is showing a little bounce this morning. Nat gas which we all now is going to zero is up 5 cents right now. Stock futures are showing gains this morning.

No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

MLPs only down 50 cents on the index while the rest of the market is down 1% as we head toward the final hour. It could get ugly again but our little group is holding on.

Oil is getting hit hard today as we head back to 60 bucks. Nat gas meanwhile is actually up by a penny. The market is down but the MLP index is only off by about 1 point as relative outperformace continues and there is no sign of any wholesale dumping like we saw so often during the merciless decline from October to March.

Plains All American (PAA) which lately has been holding up well is up nearly 1 point. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is up a nice fraction as well. Meanwhile Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) is down 1. Linn Energy (LINE) Buckeye Parthers (BPL) are down strong fractions.

10 year auction results due out shortly and that should be the drive this afternoon. Its now or never.

MLP INDEX STILL HOLDING ON (BARELY)

We somehow are managing to hold above all the moving averages on the MLP index and this of course is a good. The Dow industrilas meanwhile broke below 8250 yesterday by 100 points and this is not a good sign and 7900 likes below as perhaps a possible line in the sand. Now we can reverse this move if we can return above 8250 but we better do it in a hurry.
The MLP index meanwhle sits right at 220 and actually can take a trip down to 210 and still be okay in its uptrend. Also MLPS are getting some yield support here as buyers are going to stocks with a little yield and safety. With credit markets not nearly as stressed some risk money is coming into our group; at least relative to everything else.

Notice on the charts below that the MLP index continues to outperform the S&P index and the DOW by a sizeable amount. We are coming close to year comparisons which will begin to remove that lovely collapse that occured.

The 5 day comparison is pretty interesting as we are not dropping at anywhere near the same force as the rest of the market.

So this morning we are looking around and not seeing much going on. Crude continues to correct. Nat gas continues to just go down as apparently it has no value. I know there was alot of news yesterday concerning the UNG and possible restrictions on commodities buying in these etf's. Frankly i don't think this is a big deal as when markets go up..they go up. I know that sounds a bit simplistic but the fact is if demand for nat gas shows up one day..nat gas will go up in price even if the UNG can't buy more contracts and issue more shares.

No other corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades.

Looks like we can wave goodbye to 8250 on the dow and 220 on the mlp index as the support is collapsing here. Could get ugly in the last hour.

I guess nat gas is going to zero! I would have thought 3.50 ish was a good place for a bottom but apparently it looks like we could test 3 bucks and even go to a 2 handle.

Throwing in the towel on that trade.

In so many ways this day is pretty much like watching paint dry. Down 75 dow points and off the lows. Kind of just gropping along trying to hold 8250 and 220. But its just so darn boring.

Nustar(NS)is down 1 and change as the biggest loser. DCP Midstream (DPM) up 59 cents as the biggest winner. Most mlps are lower fractionally today.

Its hard to blog and get inspired by today's tape.

REVERSAL MONDAY..OR
AT LEAST OFF THE LOWS

It looked like it was going to get pretty nasty yesterday as 8250 on the dow and 220 on the mlp index wobbled a bit but both levels held and the dow closed near its high of the day and the MLP index came back to cut its losses to about 1 point. The bottom of the recent range has held so now lets try to mount a rally from there. Most pre open indices are flat to a touch higher. Even nat gas is up a whopping .007 of a cent! Glory!

No corporate developments on my screen this morning. A few pre-open trades on Linn Energy this morning up 28 cents but no news that i can see. It looks like a typical summer morning here.

Once again we held the bottom of the range so im looking for some upside today.

220 on the mlp index and 8250 on the dow appear to be holding. Dow has turned higher by a few points. Watching optimistically!

If you ask me...i cant believe nat gas can get any cheaper...but then again there isn't exactly a shortage of the stuff and when your factories are running at 65% of capacity and no sign of hot weather anytime soon in nat gas usage areas...why buy?

On the otherhand we are practically back to 3 dollars. Why not just give the shit away!

One of the best perfomers of the last 6 months continues to roll along up another dollar this morning at just under 42. Inergy Group (NRGP) just continues to outperform.

The mlp index is down just under 3 points this morning with the dow down about 60.Alliance Resources (ARLP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) are down over 1 point apiece. Fractional losses litter the board with Nustar (NS) Energy Transfer (ETP) and Holly Partners (HEP) down major fractions.

Small winners list includes Amerigas (APU) and Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP).

8250 on the dow tried to hold this morning but is looking very wobbly.

SOFT START ACROSS THE BOARD

After Thursday's down day of 2 plus percent on the dow we can take solace that mlps only lost 1/2 of 1% which was nice relative outperformance (doublespeak for being down less). Now this morning we have softness across the board. Oil is down sharply by over 2.50 a barrel and Nat gas has broken below its lows. So a lot of headwinds are out there to start off the new week after the holiday weekend.



The dow has support at 8250 and we will open below that this morning. So this has the makings of an important day and we will watch closely.

Quest Energy LP (QELP) is taking humpty dumpty and putting it back together again. Here are the terms

Under the terms of the Agreement, each share of QRCP would be exchanged for 0.0575 shares of NewGasCo common stock, each common unit of QELP (other than those owned by QRCP) would be exchanged for 0.2859 shares of NewGasCo common stock, and each common unit of QMLP would be exchanged for 0.4033 shares of NewGasCo common stock. Upon completion of the Merger, the equity of NewGasCo would be owned approximately 44% by current QMLP equity holders, approximately 33% by current QELP equity holders, and approximately 23% by current QRCP equity holders. The transaction is expected to be tax free to QRCP's shareholders and taxable to the unitholders of QELP and QMLP.

Enjoy yourself following that one and make sure you have a scorecard.

Not much else happening on the corporate side this morning and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far. The dollar is stronger this morning which lately has not been good for equities. So we wait for the open and we will go from there.

The weather this weekend was spectacular and i actually went to the beach. We had a horrible June here so it was necessary to take advantage of the great outdoors.

Sorry guys. Took the day off today. See you Monday morning.

MLPS are up 1 on the index with the dow up 100 points. No big movers on the upside but we do have fractional gains. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Global Partners (GLP) were among last quarters big winners and they are off fractions today. Otherwise mostly fractional gains among the the usual suspects in the group.

NEW QUARTER BEGINS!

Hard to complain about the first half. Total return for MLPS exceeded 30% and this compares to a basically flat S&P 500 and a down Dow Industrials. Yesterday we saw a lot of maneuvering around and this morning we see futures are higher and crude oil is also higher. Nat gas of course is straddling the bottom and is down a little. Not much is happening on the corporate front as we have no news on any individual issues.

One of the better movers last quarter was Inergy Holdings (NRGP) which is the GP of Inergy LP. During this stretch the company has boosted this distribution from 64 to 75 cents. And the stock price has gone from 14 just before last Christmas to 41 yesterday and not too far from its all time high! Not too shabby!

Here is an interesting blog you should take a look at. Its sort of an on this date in the Wall Street Journal in 1930. Interesting perspective. Sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same.