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Friday, July 30, 2010

PULLBACK CONTINUES!




A couple of observartions. First off it was clear we were so extended and a pullback to the moving averages was expected and not really a surprise. The second is that the pullback is comint at a time when the 10year is trying to carve out a short term bottom in yield. I found it particularly interesting that yesterday's fed speak by St Louis head Bullard about the dangers of deflation, that the fed may need to buy long term bonds to prevent Japan here, did nothing to spur on another downleg in yield.

And this morning the GDP is out and its telling us that the economic recovery is terrible (no surprise) but within expectations. Its wise for we mlp holders to keep an eye here on these recent developements. So far however its nothing more than a pullback being exaggerated by ex distributions.

Stock futures are down almost 100 after GDP. The metals are up. Crude and energy are down. No corporate headlines and no upgrades or downgrades.

Atlas Pipeline (APL) have to be happy as their mlp has come alive with a 5 point gain so far this week on the possibility of the distribution coming back soon. Attention now shifts to Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) to see if they will say the same thing. Last quarter the company did tell us that they had distributable cash flow and that they were doing the right things to increase that number. They will let us know soon with earnings next Friday.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

MLP INDEX DOWN 3 AS CORRECTION CONTINUES!




317 is the natural place to go here and we're at 323 so we can get there in short order and i would be buying in that support zone. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is a 3 point loser today leading the list lower. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Williams Partners (WPZ) and Copano (CPNO) are all down 1 or more. Williams put up pretty good earnings this morning. Holly Partners put up earnings numbers which were in line pretty much. Stock is down a few ticks right now. And Linn Energy (LINE) is over 30 bucks on earnings this morning.

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) suggesting that it could resume the payout next quarter has given this one a reason to move higher and its up another 50 cents today after being up 4 yesterday. This one probably now can be bought on any pullbacks. The resumption of the distribution has moved the speculation to Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI) as to whether they may announce the same thing soon. Those stocks are also up today in a down MLP tape.

Not sure what is going on with Enbridge (EEP) other than they are cleaning up that 2000 gallon spill in Lake Michigan. People continue to shoot first and ask questions later.

The dow has done a 100 point turnaround and is now down 50 or so and at the lows of the day.
Mlps unchanged after an up open. Rates going up forcing fast money elsewhere.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Mlps stopped going down because rates dropped below 3 pct on the 10 year.
Mlps holding for now as market overall just a touch soft.
MLP index down 2.52 and at the lows of the morning so far. Its been a slow grind down and right now as i have said..2 things are at play. One is the view that long term rates have finally bottomed and the ex distribution cycle. 316 is where the 34 day moving average lies and is a logical downside target here short term.

BTW Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI) are both up over 3% in sympathy to Atlas Pipeline (APL) which is up 4. I guess the hope is that Crosstex will tell us that sometime soon or when they announce earnings in early August.
UBS cuts Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) to a sell from hold. Stock is down about 30 cents. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) up 3 and change on the prospect of a solid distribution coming back in q4. Atlas Holdings (AHD) is up 1 and change as well. Alliance Resource Partners (AHGP) is up 10% in 2 days since earnings hit the tape Monday morning....up another 1 and change as well this morning.

The mlp index is down 1 and change under pressure from Kinder Morgan (KMP) going ex distribtuion along with Oneok (OKS). Look for more of this over the next several days. Overall market is down just a touch this morning.
Atlas is up nearly 4 and Enbridge is down 38 cents on the sale of assets to Enbridge. Atlas up sharply on the distribution coming back in q4.
Atlas is up 4 dollars at 16 this morning in the premarket in active trading. Makes sense on the news of a possible return of the distribution.
Atlas now up 2.65 at 15.
Atlas up 1.15 so far in the premarket and bidding 14.
ATLAS PIPELINE SELLS AND
(MAYBE) WILL DISTRIBUTE!


Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) will be a mover this morning and possibly in a big way as it is selling assets to Enbridge Energy Partners(EEP), but more importantly the company says that it is in position to resume distributions in Q4. The company is also giving 2011 projections of distributable cash flow of $1.80 to $2.60 so being conservative...we could be looking at a quarterly distribution from 40 cents to 55 cents per unit. No trades yet in the pre market but its nice to see an old favorite coming back to the land of payouts. And as everyone knows with MLPS its all about distributions. Also this morning Eagle Rock is exercising its rights to buy its GP.

We are coming off a 6 point mlp index loss and this morning we are going to see technical pressure as Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Oneok (OKS) go ex distribution. Also we are seeing 10 year rates back over 3 and i think this has begun spooking some of the late money that has moved in here. Nothing tragic mind you but the unrelenting push higher that began a few weeks ago seems to have run its course just shy of all time highs.

Stock futures are a little higher now after being flat most of the night. The dollar is lower and rates are ticking a shade higher pre open. Crude is a little lower and nat gas is a little higher. Headlines as they break. Noticing some stock for sale on Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) but no news headlines that i see.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Mlps closing near the lows of the day while 10 year bond yields close near the highs of the day. 315 on the index lies first support.
MLPS DOWN OVER 6 POINTS

When your flat or up 17 days in a row and your extended far from the 34 day moving average i think a pullback is a no-brainer. I would have thought it might have waited for the round of ex-distributions which starts in the next few days but no matter. They are starting it now. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP ) is down over 2 dollars on the Lakehead Pipeline leak in Lake Michigan. In the wake of BP its shoot now ask questions later. Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) is expanding its presence in Barnett Shale. XTEX is flat but XTXI is up over 30 cents or 5% on the day. Alliance Resource (ARLP) Nustar (NS) Plains All American (PAA) and a number of the big boys are down 1 point or more as we head into afternoon trading.

Markets overall holding basically flat to a little lower right now.
Down 5 on the index as moves away from yield.
Mlps down 3 on the index as rates rise above 3. Correction imminenent on extreme bullishness here up 17 out of last 18. Can't go on forever.

Monday, July 26, 2010

We are at 10500 on the dow and if we close above that we have a breakout of the base. Mlp index off the highs. Alliance resource leads the way up over 2.
By the way...except for the -.06 close a few days ago the MLP index has been up 15 out of the last 16 days which is a pretty astounding accomplishment. We're getting a bit extended in here short term so, again, i think we may see a sharp correction coming in here..co-inciding with the mass ex distribution cycle about to hit. But there is stll time to ring the bell at 340.02!

Dow chart looks like its trying to breakout above the "W" bottom formation so a close above 10500 today on decent volume and we could run to 11000 in a hurry!
We are less than 2% away from all time highs on the MLP index.
Mlps racing ahead. Up 2.20 and 5 to go for all time highs
MONDAY MORNING EARNINGS PARADE!



Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) leads a long list of earnings this morning with a record performance all the way around and a solid distribution boost. Alliance GP Holdings (AHGP) of course benefits and hikes the payout as well. Boardwalk Partners (BWP) puts up its numbers which look good as well but the stock is trading down nearly 1 in the premarket. Holders will also get a .005 cent increase in the distribution. Don't spend the extra 1/2 cent all in one place. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is doing what it always does well which is grow earnings and payouts. And what Enterprise does..Duncan Partners (DEP) also follows and their earnings look very good as well. Inergy Partners (NRGY) gives us its 35th consecutive quarterly distribution increase which is remarkable really...8 years! Inergy Holdings (NRGP) which split 3-1 also boots by a penny and a half. No story yet though just a headline.

Stock futures this morning just a shade lower at the start. Its a quiet Monday morning in July. The dollar is down this morning and gold is up. Rates are flat this morning at lease so far. MLPS have 340 and all time highs in their sights but there are only a few days before the ex-distribution cycle begins. Also i posted last night 2 story links that are must reads esepecially about the new MLPL which is the leveraged ETN and the risks involved.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Interesting read from Investors daily about the new leveraged 2x etn for MLPS. It gives one pause about investing in it. Worth the time to read through especially for those of you considering it. Also Daily Markets has this piece about mlps that probably repeats everything we already no but the newbies in the group should read it.

Stock futures are basically flat in early trading as Asia gets underway.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Raymond james raises Linn Energy price target to 34 bucks. Stock up 29 cents.
Going nowhere fast this morning as the dow is flat (basically) and the mlp index a few ticks lower. Small fractional moves in either direction seem to be the rule so far. All this endless attention on the Euro bank stress test results that come out at noon. Watching paint dry until then.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND FIRM!



Starting out the morning with silightly higher stock futures which is a good thing. Yesterday's action in mlps was a bit subduded compared to the overall market but it's hard to draw conclusions from one day's action. If you combine the 2 day action of mlps (remember the day before the dow was down over 100 but mlps closed flat) nothing has changed yet in the overall trend. I think its important to keep your eye on the 10 year and whether we are near an are where rates can't go much lower; unless of course the economy is going to "take more gas" (not literally) for the rest of the year. Let us watch what happens to mlps on days where rates move higher. There is probably a place where if rates climb back to, will cause money to flow away from yield. We are not anywhere near there yet and it may be somewhere around 4%. And of course it will be most important to watch what happens to mlps next week when the ex distribution cycle begins and what impact the new etfs and etns have, particularly the MLPL which is 2x the mlp index.

Okay its a quiet Friday morning with no upgrades or downgrades and no corporate developements. Here is a list of yesterday's news stories all on one page for your convenience. All the bs this morning is swirling around this euro stress test show on their banks. The dollar is up a little against the euro and rates are moving higher this morning on this news at 2.97%.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Finished off the highs today but a nice gain for the overall market. Mlps gained les than 2 points on the index.
Up over 332 again with lots of fractional gains across the board. Atlas Pipeline leads the winners list.
Mlps not catching a big bid today as money moves out of yield and into everythibg else. Dow up over 200 but mlps up 1 and change.
Futures holding on to the bulk of the morning gains.
RELATIVE STRENGTH CONTINUES!





Futures are sharply higher this morning pretty much undoing the Bernake damage yesterday. The market wants to go higher and its good to see the reversal on the face of yesterday's testimony. But lets take a look this morning at the mlp chart and notice that the uptrend continues as we march on the road to 340. But we are getting a bit extended from the support below and if you look along the uptrend, there have been a number of these sharp 1 or 2 day drops that come down to support and bounce right off. Im thinking that we could get one of those drops come next week when we get that mass ex distribution exodus that almost always happens. This distribution cycle is coming with the addition of 5 etf's/etns that have become part of the trading world. Would not be at all surprised if we see a pretty sharp down move but meanwhile 340 and all time highs loom large and its quite possible we'll see that first. Im also wondering if on a big rally day if we get one that we might see some sort of huge pile on.

Moving along this morning we have nothing much corporate wise going on and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far. Europe is up on good economic news, rates are flat and energy is up so far.

Love the fact that i can post from my phone now with relative ease so i will be putting short posts up from time to time during the day. Makes my life easier!!!
Futures up just about all that was lost yesterday. Markets apparentllt don't care about fed outlook on second glance.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Dow closed down over 100 while the mlp index closes flat and the 10 year drops to 2.90! Bernake sound grim in his testimony so the flight to yield continues.
Dow off 100 as bernake states the obvious. Mlps still basically flat
Testing this from my mobile device
I took off the comments moderation so any comments should post immediately. Haven't had any recent problems with spammers so i figure lets go back to the way it was.
Opened higher..then went 2 points lower...and now back to even with the dow up 10. Waiting for the fed speak at 2pm.

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) must be up 76 cents because Apple Computer (AAPL) is up 9 dollars after earnings. There is no other reason for the 7% up move in the stock but it is todays big mlp winner. Most mlps are moving fractionally in either direction. Some pull backs in Oneok Partners (OKS) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) but they have recently made all time highs.
GETTING READY TO RING A BELL!



The week of July 16th 2007 is the anniversay of note. 3 years ago around this time the mlp index hit an all time high of 340.11. It has been quite the trip as we went from there to starring into the abyss in early November 2008 when we hit 152.06 on a closing basis and fell to 145 intraday. Now here we are at 330.40 on the mlp index..up over 4 yesterday. We are 3% away from all time highs and if we adjust for distributions which have only been growing through all of this for many of the mlp majors, we are already there. Its a nice place to be!
And now of course we have officially become "trendy" as this Forbes arcticle points out. We have gone from no ETN's or ETF's to 5 now out there. I have stated repeatedly that this is a double edged sword. As long as the spread between MLPS and treasuries remains around 400 basis points, mlps will continue to attract money. That spread only gets supported by the usual distribution hikes that have been coming along quarter after quarter. As long as the music continues to play we can continue to walk around the chairs. 340 is the obvious next stop here and its been a wonderful trip up. Play on but remember with the advent of popularity comes perhaps volatility when any correction comes. And it might be volatility like we saw back in 2008 with 15 and 20 point down days on the index. No sign of that happening now so let us play!

Markets as I indicated yesterday were gearing for a strong finish and it worked out that way. The dow looks like it has built a complex bottom in here so we will have an additional tail wind for awhile. No corporate news so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are a little higher pre open. Energy is up and rates are flat.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

THE RUN TO ALL TIME HIGHS!



Up well over 2 points here after a down open as the overall market wants to go higher. Nice gains among most mlps with Williams Partners (WPZ) up over 46 and a t new all time highs...up 1.33 as of this post. Oneok Partners (OKS) has broken above 70 and is also up 1 and change. The 10 year under 3% continues to drive money to yield. Enjoy the ride.

Double shift today so im sneaking in this post. Looking for a strong run into the close.

Monday, July 19, 2010

A run to 326 and small change and then a pull back as the market went negative and now we are a touch higher again. The mlp index is basically unch at lunchtime. No big moves in either direction. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) and Oneok LP (OKS) all about 5o cents higher and hovering around 52 week and all time highs in some cases. Nustar (NS) Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) among the fractional losers. The list is split about 50-50.
MARKET MLP DIVERGENCE GROWS!


Back home from vaca so its back to something resembling normalcy. Not normal is what we continue to see going on in MLP land and frankly while i think outperformance is great, i am becoming a bit concerned overall as to what this chart is trying to tell us. This is a three month chart of MLPS VS YIELD VS THE DOW and i think in the years i've been blogging i have never quite seen something like this. The mlp index is up nearly 5 percent in the last 3 months while the dow is down nearly 10 which is a 15% outperformance. Notice that all this has occured as 10 year yields have collapsed below 3 which is of course the opposite of what conventional wisdom told us was going to happen (dollar going to zero..rates going to the moon). Now outperformance is fine but i would feel a whole lot better if the overall market were at least flat rather than down. Clearly money continues to flow to yield and MLPS offer 6-8% of yield vs 2.9% on the 10 year and near 0 on short term instruments. I am beginning to worry how much fast money is going in here and i am also worrying about all these new etf's and 2x leverage etf's in mlp land that work fine as things go up but one day when things go down...they may go down very fast.
This 2 year chart is very telling. Is it any accident that over this time frame that the overall market is down..mlps are up 20% and yields are down 20%? And what happens when the day comes that rates actually turn up? While these are questions to ponder lets get back to the very short term. MLPS are coming into the next distribution cycle and thats probably a big reason why MLPS are continuing to catch a bid in here and will probably continue to do so until the ex distribution cycle begins.

Linn Energy (LINE) is in the news this morning as it is buying up more assets in East Texas and they are doing it with internally generating cash flow. Nothing else on the corporate front. Stock futures are higher but off the highs of the morning. The dollar is down, rates are flat, energy is basically flat and trading on either side of unchanged.

So lots to ponder this morning. Friday we say the dow down 260 and the mlp index basically unchanged. It was also option expiration. The open looms large as always.

Friday, July 16, 2010

ANOTHER UP WEEK COMES TO AN END!


I know my posts this week have been rather limiting thanks to my vacation but this comes to an end today and its back to nomal come Monday. The distribtution annoucements have begun with several mlps upping payouts and of course this is no surprise. The 10 year is below 3% this morning so the drive of money to yield continues. No reason why we won't see new all time highs on the mlp index in the next few weeks. I would only caution however that with this move has come the arrivial of all these etfs. When the day comes that selling is the thing to do, the volitility in these things may be something taking us back to the Lehman unwind. But for now its up with minor interrruptions until further notice.

Just noticed stock futures turned a little lower this morning ahead of the open afer trading a little higher. Nothing major here. Good tape action yesterday with the dow down over 100 and then a rally back to a small loss at the close. No corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Some moves this morning on Magellan Midstream which is doing a 5 million share offering. Stock is down 1 and Morgan Stanely cuts TC Pipelines to underweight. Stock is down 1.MLP index down 1.50 at the open..dow down a little,,nasdaq up a little.
NEW BREAKOUT HIGH FOR THE MOVE..
340 IS NEXT ON THE MLP EXPRESS TRAIN!



Sorry for no posts yesterday but we had no wireless service in the house which is in the Redneck Riveria. Then this morning after going crazy all day i realized it was just a matter of resetting the wireless router (Duh!) so im back on this morning. So my apologies. The MLP index is clearly telling us that with the overall market now rallying out of W bottom we have a shot for all time highs in a few weeks.

The dow chart looks constructive here and the move has been very powerful from the lows of 2 weeks ago. We're above support. So the wind is at our backs probably through earnings and distribution announcements.

The open looms in a few. We're on central time here so my body clock is a bit off. Going to swim laps. Looks like a slightly lower open off June retail sales and a sideways day would be no shock here after 7 up days in a row. MLPS could continue pushing higher regardless so let the games begin and im off to swim laps. By the way no kidding aside it is beautiful here. Check out the link above.

Monday, July 12, 2010

MLP INDEX AIMING FOR 320!



That is our short term goal and we last were there when the Dow was at 11200. Here were are with the dow 1000 points lower and we're in the same place. So basically the dow is 10 % with the mlp index basically flat in the last couple of months. Since it appears that the market wants to rally in here it looks like we're headed for a breakout and then a challenge of all time index highs at 340. Remember when we were there last somewhere back in 2007. And through all that time we had 12 payouts or so to pad the pockets. If you were in the right mlps after all that we went through in 2008...you are ahead of the game. And how many of your non mlp friends can say that?

The dow is back up right now and the mlp index is up about 1 point. Most mlps are fractionally higher. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) are at all time highs today along with Williams Partners (WPZ). You can add those three to Apple Computer (AAPL) and all time highs are a nice place to be.

On vacation this week in Panama City where its been great and oil free. Will post from time to time when im taking a break from the beach.

Friday, July 09, 2010

Up over 2 points and nearing 319 as we are in the last hour and stocks are at session highs. Looks like we have a shot for a new closing high to finish of the week. Money still flowing to yield.
STRANGE TIMES INDEED!




A look at these 2 charts indeed tells 2 different stories. On the one hand the dow industrials is in a downtrend of lower highs although this week we've seen a nice rally and maybe we can get above support in time. Meanwhile MLPS continue to just roar along and why not. When the yield spread with the strongest mlps is over 4 basis points to the 10 year it becomes a magnet for money. The mlp chart is getting close to 320; where the dow was over 11k. Now the dow is over 10% lower from that rally high and we are right back at the door. Relative outperformance continues and no sign of any change in momentum or trend.

We are just under 318 this morning up another point and small change. No news and no upgrades or downgrades that i could find so far. The heat here in the east got to me the other day and so i apologize for no posts yesterday. It was tough enough just to get out of bed!

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Markets finishing big on massive short covering. Dow up over 10k and up over 270. MLP index up over 6 points.
NOW WE HAVE TWICE AS NICE!



Figures that now that we have run well beyond 2008 levels UBS comes out with an MLP etn which tracks 2x the move in the mlp index and pays out 2x. But remember boys and girls 2x the move works in both directions and all this added leverage in the marketplace and that means we will see moves that we normally don't see in this group. Too bad we didn't have this at AMZ 150 or else we would have a quadruple from the lows in your portfolio. In time we will probably have options to hedge the hedge. Please note there are no K-1's here so the payouts pass as ordinary income. So do consider the tax implications.

The index is up over 5 today as the market finally rallies strong from being deeply oversold. 320 is in view for mlps as long as rates stay in the abyss under 3-3.25% on the 10 year and the bounce in the market is something other than a one day wonder. Lots of mlps are up 1 or more like Nustar (NS) Alliance Resource (ARLP) Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) and Williams Partners (WPZ).

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Ran to almost a 5 point gain and the dow up 160 but now sellers have taken over and markets are well off the highs of the day. The dow is up just 57 and mlps up 2.60. Alliance Resource (ARLP) leads the winners list up 1. Also up strongly are Kinder Morgan (KMP) Williams (WPZ) and EV Energy Partners (EVEP). Most mlps are fractionally higher. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) is down 50 cents as the noteable loser though there is no news here to speak of.

It will be demoralizing if markets can't sustain an up close given the start we've had.
POST HOLIDAY FIRM WITH BEARS EVERYWHERE!




Hope everyone's 4th of July weekend went well. We come back to what should be a slow trading week and a heatwave in the northeast . Over the weekend the press was about as bearish as you could be. There was this on CNBC.com that its the depression all over again if you believe the charts. This of course sets the blogosphere ablaze with all sorts of commentary. Then there is Paul Krugman of the NY Times who blames republicans for everything. One must be clean before reading Krugman so be sure to bathe.

In the end seeing all this gloom and doom around in the press leads me to believe that the markets may fool everyone and rally in here. But lets make no mistake there are big big issues out there and lots of headwinds to deal with.

We here in the land of MLPS however seem to be in a different world of sorts as money continues to move to yield. MLPS are not that far from new post 2008 bear market highs. This morning with stock futures we're set for a higher open. News from Kinder Morgan(KMP) and Copano (CPNO) as they will be managing energy for SM Energy. Both stocks are bid up ahead of the open. No other corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades so far this morning.

Markets are firm this morning in Europe. The dollar is down against the euro which is good for stocks. Yields are a little higher this morning in the face of the world not having ended over the weekend.

Thursday, July 01, 2010

Markets are attempting to rally in here and the attempt seems to be pretty legit. Dow is down just 40 now and mlps off the lows down 6 on the index.
MLPS down 8 points so for now it looks like the pile on is getting unwound.
MLPS selling off with everything else as we have hideous economic stats. Dow down 85. MLPS down 4. The 10 year is at 2.89%, and isn't in wonderful how wrong (myself included) the conventional wisdom is about rates that had no where to go but up...and here we are at new lows in yield! Brilliant what a depression and a deflation can do.
NEW QUARTER BEGINS...
AND YOU CAN THANK THE ASSHOLE!


Okay the new quarter starts today and i guess we will get the answer to the question i've been posting for over a week now. Was the end of quarter run into bonds and mlps and the end of quarter selling in everything else part of something bigger or part of the big pile-on. Yields on the 10 year are down to 2.95% which puts mlps at a very wide spread...almost 4 points. Now by 2008 standards when spreads went to the moon this is low but it is above the normal long term range. And since i think what's going on here is much different (no Lehman unwind), it is possible that mlps could go higher while the rest of the market goes nowhere or down. And mlps are rising while energy stocks in general hit new lows almost daily. We have BP to thank for that to some degree but that group going down does not say good things about the economy.

The XOI index of big energy stocks is not down to its 2008 or 2009 lows but it's not that far away. Frankly i'm amazed that MLPS have been able to stage almost unheard of outperformance while the rest of energy is getting shunned. But when you do nothing other than throw off cash in a deflationary enviornment; that apparently is an asset that somebody wants.
The one and 2 year chart comparisons here say it all. How long can this divergence go on? I guess as long as less than 3% isnt enough for some people...it may go on for quite a while. Still i have to wonder that if the market overall goes into some sort of deflationary implosing..how long before mlps do the same thing. Food for thought.

Okay new quarter brings lower futures after yesterday's 100 point loss on the dow. Everyone is screaming about the S&P breaking 1040. Nat gas numbers are out later this morning. Rates are flat ahead of the open. No corporate developements this morning so far and i don't expect any ahead of the holiday weekend. MLPS closed up 1 yesterday after being up nearly 4 earlier. Going to be an interesting day.

I guess it had to happen eventually but after 6 years of blogging, i've gotten popular enough that im getting this....so as a result i have to activate the moderation option. If you guys want to give the man a friendly thank-you just click on this and tell whoever it is to go hawk his stuff elsewhere. Sorry about having to put a monitor into the playground. If this is an isolated incident i will take it off.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

MLPS have cut their losses from down over 5 to down a little over 3. The dow is off the lows as well. Considering how it looked after 10am its not a half bad comeback but the dow is now just above 9900.

Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Plains All American (PAA) are down a little over a point and lead the list of losers. Just a few mlps flat or up by a few pennies.
No surprises as its a crappy open. Dow down nearly 200 at the lows. MLPS down over 4 on the mlp index.
ITS A 2 HANDLE!




The ten year yield this morning is back under 3% for the first time since we came out of the crisis in 2008. The 2 year yield is at a record low of 0.62%. This is not a good sign in my view about the overall economy. It is sending a signal and its a deflationary spiral that could get out of control if we're not careful. Okay maybe im being a little extreme here but face it folks. Look at stock prices overall, commodities prices overall, are going down....the dollar is strengthening. Or maybe this is the end of quarter pile on that i believe began late last week and has perhaps another day or 2 to go. Either way this morning there is pressure that is coming from Europe sending down futures down over 100 and under 10k pre open. MLPS are part of the pile on and continue to strongly outperform the overall market. At some point this may get undone and in a big hurry.

Look at the chart above and notice that the yield on the 10 year has dropped 20% in the last 3 monts (from 4 to 3%) and this has come with a drop in stock prices and a gain in mlp prices. Money continues to move toward the attractive yield and tax advantages that mlps offer.


That move has accellerated since last Thursday and its from this that i lay my argument that the end of quarter is playing big in here and that this spread wont last for ever. Either markets will turn and rally come the new quarter or mlps will unwind this gain to some degree. Place your bets people.

Nothing on the corporate side this morning that will drive individual mlps and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. It will be interesting to see what happens today after the hard down open if mlps will turn and move higher and continue the outperformance. 2.98 is the latest print on the 10 year.

Got this link emailed to me yesterday about taxes and mlps. Its an interesting read. Im not sure what to make of it really. Yes MLPS have a tax advanatge but my response to all of this is that there is nothing stopping anyone from investing in these companies and participating in the same tax advantage. DUH!

Monday, June 28, 2010

Up another 3.30 and over 312 as the 10 year yield drops to 3.039%. The end of quarter pile in continues. This is beginning to look and feel a little ominious to me. The Dow is a couple of a hundred points above its trading low and the mlp index is but 3% below its recent high. I know i should enjoy the ride but i can't help but wonder that this is all going to get unwound in a hurry later in the week. Hope im wrong.
The end of quarter pile on continues. Bonds approaching a 3% yield, gold stocks higher, and mlps higher with the index up 1 and approaching 310. Can't help but feel a lot of this gets undone Thursday but we'll deal with that Thursday.

Holly Partners (HEP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) are today's big winners and SXL and NRGP are flirting with 52 week highs. Most mlps up fractionally and nothing notable on the short losers list.
HEADING FOR THE TOP OF THE RANGE!




I still think its end of quarter plus all these new etfs coming on but its hard to argue against a nearly 2% gain last Friday against an overall market which really didnt do much. We have been in a bull market now for 18 months in mlp land and the outperformance to the regular market continues. The spread however widened considerably last week as MLPS outperformed the overall market by a spread of over 6%. Outperformance yes but the wide spread can't last forever. And one must wonder...or worry what happens when etfs have to sell one day. Are there going to be any buyers around? There was a time when mlps traded by appointment only. Those days may be long gone.

Okay folks you buy or sell today it settles in q3. Wednesday is the last day of Q2 so i would suspect that buying pressure will continue for our group. The chart formation would argue for another run back to 320 in the short term. Its hard to argue against that. No corporate news this morning of any importance and so far no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are firm into the open. Crude and nat gas are down a little bit. Dollar is up today by a little bit. People have the holiday weekend on their mind so look for trading to slow as the week moves on. The open looms.

Friday, June 25, 2010

A 6 point plus gain on the mlp index this afternoon as there seems to be an end of quarter rush into this group while big energy stocks continue to suffer under the fire of BP and the Gulf spill. 1 point plus gains are on the board for many of the majors including Plains All American (PAA) Williams (WPZ) Buckeye (BPL) and Oneok(OKS).



Last hour shennanigans will likely swing the barometer back and forth before the close. Looks like a tropical storm could be in the works for the Gulf of Mexico early next week and that is driving oil right now to a 2 dollar gain.
MAKING SENSE OF OUTPERFORMANCE


I've been trying to come to terms with this week's strange action where MLPS have pretty much been flat while the broad market has been down four days in a row. The S&P is down 5% this week while the MLP index is down less than 1 percent. And we closed up yesterday with the dow down 150. And this morning the outperformance continues as we see an oversold rally developing. The mlp index is up 2 and back near the top of the neckline at 305.






Notice the six month spread is 10%..we're up 5 and the market is down 5. The movements this week i think are end of quarter related and you wonder if it all gets undone late next week. Also i am not fond of the tape action overall. Frankly its become very disturbing and i wonder whether the market is coming to terms with the fact that deflation may be taking hold here. 10 year rates at 3% are not saying good things about the economy.

Still the rally continues this Friday morning as we are now up nearly 2.50 on the mlp index with the overall market flat. Kinder Morgan (KMP) Buckeye (BPL) and Williams Partners (WPZ) lead the winners list with 50 cent plus gains. No notable losers.

Watch the tape for any signs of a slow fade again although Fridays tend to draw buyers late in the day going into the weekend. Tropics may be heating up as it looks like something is trying to form in the Western Caribbean which could mean a Gulf of Mexico impact next week. By the way guess who has a vacation planned in Panama City Beach FL in a couple of weeks!

Thursday, June 24, 2010

MLPS beginning to move solidly head up over 1.25 on the index. Buckeye Partners (BPL) Alliance Resource (ARLP), Oneok (OKS) and Copano (CPNO) showing solid fractional gains in here. Nice to see the tape move ahead for mlps. The dow is down 65. Also noticing that 3% for 10 years is not thrilling bond holders and we are actually seeing a rally in yields for the first time in awhile. The 10 year is up to a whopping 3.13% in here.
Thinking maybe this is end of quarter nonsense supporting mlp prices? The strength here seems a bit odd in some respect considering how the rest of the market is swooning here. Dow down over 100 right now.
Most mlps are now higher with the index higher by 60 cents or so. The dow is down 81. Strength here pretty impressive if you ask me.
LESS IS MORE!


Not sure what is going on. Maybe its a 3% 10 year yield making mlps appear undervalued. Maybe its the firm nat gas price these days. Maybe its just more buyers than sellers. Whatever it is MLPS continue to strongly outperform the broader market. With the dow down over 100 points the index is down a small fraction. Also not sure what if anything is going on with Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) which is up nearly a dollar this morning. Dont seen any news there and the volume isnt all that high. Otherwise fractional moves of minus 50 cents to plus 50 cents...more mlps down than up.

Busy in the house this morning. Will update later.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

THE FED AT 2:15PM





The fed fixation is on today so its all about 2:15pm and whether the fed takes a word or 2 out of the statement. With the 10 year now close to 3.10, what does it say about the world and the US economy? Ask yourself what kind of a world is it when someone is willing to take 3 percent guaranteed on their money for 10 years. It doesnt say good things. So many of us remember all 2 well that 30 years ago long rates began their long march to almost 15% on the 30 year. Those bonds are almost mature now (time does go by quickly). We are used to viewing the world through the prism of high rates being bad..falling rates being good. But that came off 15 years of uncontrolled inflation. It took nearly 15 years to wring out that evil. Now we are in the world as it was most of the time. Low rates are not sending a pretty picture. And if the US is the new Japan..3% yields would look attractive (Japan long rates are around 0.5 or so.). UGH!!! MLPS of course are paying to 6 to 8% with risk attached. What if we head into another downturn? Can these companies continue to grow their payouts if business slows to a crawl and demand drops? All questions to consider and ponder carefully.

Of course that is the broad picture and as we take a look at the charts we are not nearly as somber this morning. Yesterday's slow fade and then late selloff was demoralizing to be sure but the MLP index only lost a little over a point and remains above support. Sometimes the sell off catches up on the second day. Stock futures are higher this morning so it looks like we're going to undo a little of the late mess. The euro is up which is good for stocks overall. No corporate news this morning. Wunderlich downgrades Inergy (NRGY) to a hold but raises the target price on Inergy Holdings (NRGP) from 28 to 30.

So lets prepare for another trading day. Oil inventory numbers at 10:30am. That doesnt count whats floating in the Gulf of Mexico. Its a summer Wednesday so the trading pace continues to move into full summer mode. BTW we have MLP ETNs and now comes the MLP ETF. Frankly i rather not have all this attention.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Its been a sort of watching paint dry kind of day so far but mlps seem to have a firm tone to them. The index is up fractionally over 305. Everyone seems to be somewhere between minus 50 cents to plus 50 cents. Nustar (NSH) among the plus 50 winners as there is still some idea that what Buckeye Partners (BPL) did for holders of Buckeye Holdings (BGH); Nustar might do the same and buyout its GP. The GP has been strong ever since that deal was announced by Buckeye last week. No notable movers really as there are no real news drivers today.
DOES THE REVERSAL HAVE MEANING?



As demoralizing as downside reversals can be, and its no fun to watch one happening, it hard to extract too much meaning out of yesterday's turn from higher to lower. First off MLPS never really took off to any great extent...at most the index was up three. And in the end it still managed to close fractionally higher. The dow took it a little harder but it only closed down 9 points. And volume yesterday wasnt anything to scream at. So we'll just view it as noise for the time being. Not much downside followthrough this morning with futures flat. So we'll call it a wash and move on.

Not much happening this morning. Corporate developements for now are non existant. Stock futures are flat. The dollar is higher. Energy is lower. The fed begins a 2 day meeting so we have the 2:15pm ritual tomorrow. Can't imagine they are going to change anything with the recent economic numbers looking a tad soft. Still the statement will be watched for every period and every comma and every verb. UGH!

Okay lets keep an eye on whether the market can get its footing today and rally back to yesterday's highs which was around 10,600. MLPS looking at 310 as the next logical stock as the short term trend remains bullish.

Monday, June 21, 2010

Looks like the Markwest move is due to a Street.com piece where it gets a Cramer goose. Markwest is mentioned on page 2 of the article. Markwest up 1.20 at 33.20. Piece basically suggests nat gas is the way to go and mlps do it with high yield. Investors may be waking up to this.
Not sure why but Markwest (MWE) is up 95 cents in the premarket on active trades and is bidding 33.10 right now. No news that i can find but still searching.

Meredith Whitney took some points out of the futures with her bearish outlook as she hosts the second hour on CNBC. Dow still up over 100.
WEEK STARTING OFF ROARING!





Stock futures have been higher from the get-go at 6pm Sunday and we are at the highs of the morning up 135 on the dow industrial futures. Charts are looking more and more like a W bottom formation and we are moving above the moving averages again on the DOW. The mlp index continues to outperform as we are above the moving averages and poised to break 305 which is the top of the leg of the W. So it stands to reason that with a supportive tape we should head to 310 in short order and ultimately we will challenge that 320 high. No reason not to stay bullish.

Corporate developements this morning as low priced Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI) continues to gather more assets which look to be accretive to cash flow. Should cause a pop on the open for this one. Otherwise we are pretty bare on the news front this morning. No upgrades or downgrades so far. End of month and end of quarter pressures will being to play into the game over the next few days so there could be some volatility in both directions so beware of that. However any downside spikes that occur could be nice buying opportunities.

Markets pre open are all solidly higher as mentioned early. Crude and nat gas are higher. BTW..looking at weather trends conditions could become more favorable for some sort of tropical storm developement over the next week to 10 days. This of course will be a short term driver for the energy complex. And of course there is BP and the Gulf of Mexico. Keep this site in your bookmarks for the latest on the tropics. European stocks are rallying and 10 year rates are rising as equities move up.

Found this over the weekend on Smart Money about mlps. It is another example of how we are no longer the best kept secret out there.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Stock futures up 132 points on the dow and 15 S&P points on China moving to allow its currency to float against the dollar. Should be a fun Monday.

Friday, June 18, 2010

Saw this post about nat gas mlps. Makes sense.
EL PASO OFFERS SHARES



Thats the big move this morning as El Paso Partners (EPB) is selling units to finance the purchase of assets it announced yesterday. The stock is down 1.30 in the premarket. The company has the currency so it might as well take advantage of it. Otherwise its a quiet morning on options expiration day. MLPS closed up over 305 on the index as a last minute rally pushed prices up into the close. So now its all about the weekend. No upgrades or downgrades this morning. Markets overall are flat into the open and usually expiration day tends to be relative quiet from the standpoint of moves. Still there are end of quarter pressures that are going to show up soon and i would think there will be a rush to own mlps as they have done so well. But that is just a very short term distortion.

Crude is down and nat gas is up and the nat gas rally appears to be something that might last for awhile. 5 dollar nat gas is probably much more supportive to mlps unhedged to energy prices. Its sure better than 3 dollar gas.

Speaking of gas..heading out to buy a new grill...back right after the open.

Thursday, June 17, 2010













Becky Quick this morning on CNBC gets it on with Lannie Davis over butts and ass! Nice.

Down 50 at lunchtime with mlps down 1 and off the lows of the day. No big moves to speak of..small fractions in either direction. El Paso Partners (EPB) is increasing its interest in Southern Natural Gas Company which they say will be good for their bottom line. The stock is yawning on the news down 10 cents as of this post.

THE QUIET WINNING STREAK!



While horse racing discusses Zenyatta's 17th win in a row (if you havent seen it scroll down to Monday's post), we here in MLP land have a 7 day winning streak and we've cleared the middle part of the W. So the next logical stop is the 320 level and if the market gets in full gear, maybe new all time highs on the mlp index at 340. Getting ahead of ourselves yes but we seem to have everything at our backs here including some momentum. Low rates, rising nat gas, and rising stock prices, a drive of cash to risk that pays in yield, and the proliferation in MLP ETF's which, make no mistake, is adding to volatility.

Its all quiet on the corporate news front this morning and so far the upgrade downgrade list is free and clear. Stock futures are higher this morning. The dollar is lower and crude is a little lower. Nat gas is higher and over 5 bucks on futures,

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

THE BIG "W"


The "W" bottom in the mlp index looks pretty good in here and we are now going to look at the 305 level as a place where we need to get through. It seems like 320 is the next major challenge which is the high for this move and that will be a major test. So the path of least resistence technically is higher. The mlp index is up nearly 3 points and its being led by Williams Partners (WPZ) as it is right at a 52 week high. Holly Partners (HEP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Oneok (OKS) are up major fractions to a point in here. Just a handful of losers down 10 cents or less.

Dow up 115, crude and nat gas are up nicely. And we are in an options expiration week with an upside bias. The wind now appears to be at our back!

Monday, June 14, 2010

Dow up 100 and mlps up over 302 now with a 3 point gain. Nustar Holdings (NSH) is the biggest winner up 1.27 as it continues to move on last week's gp buyout by Buckeye (BPL). Alliance Holdings GP was up nearly 1 earlier but is now unchanged. Exterran Partners (EXLP) and Plains All American (PAA) are the two biggest winners out side of NSH..both are up about 1 or so.

On the losing end just Nustar (NS) on the list at unchanged and we have TC Pipelines (TCLP) and Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) off just a few pennies. Nice day so far.
LOOKS LIKE A BOTTOM..
FEELS LIKE A BOTTOM..THEN IT MUST BE????





From the standpoint of the MLP index i think we definitely put in a double bottom and now we are clearly above the supporting moving averages and 300 is inorder this morning at the open. Its all about relative outperformance and that continues in a pretty strong way. If the dow rallies back to 11,000 it might do it with MLPS breaking out to new highs for the move. After Thursday's and Friday's action in the markets i am optimistic. Nice feeling for a Monday morning.

This morning we see stock futures racing ahead nicely and it looks like a solid up open. Energy is higher this morning and Euro markets are in rally mode. No corporate headlines so far this morning and nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list. So lets head into the open with a nice cup of coffee and a good breakfast since it looks like we will be holding food down today.

Finally for your enjoyment...a race for the ages and a horse for the ages as well! A 100 dollar bet on her first win and then rolled over on the next 16 and you would have close to a million bucks!

Friday, June 11, 2010

MLPS are moving ahead and at the highs of the day up 1.55 on the index and this with a 2 point loss in Buckeye (BPL). Some GPs are getting attention on the Buckeye Holdings (BGH) takeover. Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) is up 1 at 34 and near a 52 week high. Nustar Holdings (NSH) is up 60 cents as perhaps whats good for the goose may be good for the gander. Almost all mlps are higher except for a very thin list of losers that are off just small fractions. The Buckeye loss is probably shaving a good 2 points off the mlp index which would be back over 300 otherwise. Relative strength continues and with a 10 year at 3.20...why not!
MLPS have either side of unch this morning and now are basically unch. With the exception of Buckeye Holdings which is up 5 1/2 and Buckeye Partners which is down 2 1/2 everything else is moving small fractions either side of unchanged.
Buckeye Partners (BPL) is down 1.67 in the pre market in a few isolated trades while Buckeye Holdings (BGH) is up 5 and change on the deal news.

Futures holding just below fair value ahead of retail sales numbers at 8:30am.
PUTTING HUMPTY DUMPTY TOGETHER AGAIN!



News item this morning that should get some pulses racing. It was just a few short years ago when IPO's of GPS were all the rage. Well now we have the second case of the MLP buying the GP. Magellan(MMP) did it first a few months back and now we have Buckeye Partners (BPL) using its relatively rich currency to buy Buckeye Holdings (BGH) at a nice premium to yesterday's close. Holders of Buckeye Holdings (BGH) will get .7 shares of Buckeye Partners (BPL) which works out to a little over 40 bucks based on yesterday's BPL close of 58! Remember back during the meltdown there was a 17 dollar offer on the table from some outside holders that fell apart? Looking back...that was a good thing! BGH is bid 35.50 ask 40 after closing at 31.18.

We had a nice gain yesterday of 4 plus points which was a little less than than the overall markets move of over 2 percent. Sometimes at the beginnings of rallies we move a little less on the first breakout day and play catch up over the next few. Assuming its not a one day bounce 300 is in sight again. Markets are a little softer ahead of the open. Dollar is down this morning, gold is up, and energy is up. No upgrades or downgrades so far this morning.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

SOLID GAINS BUT OFF THE HIGHS!


We ran right from the get go this morning with the dow up 230 and mlp index up over 5. We've pulled back a bit since the mid morning highs but still up over 180 on the down and 3 and change on the mlp index. Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Alliance Holdings (AHGP) are the 2 biggest winners up 1.50 apiece while Natural Resource (NRP) and Williams Partners (WPZ) are up about 1. Most mlps showing fractional gains and just a couple of mlps shedding pennies.

Short post here. Busy day.

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Ran up to a 4 point gain on the mlp index only to now being up a little under 3. Some sellers have come into certain drillers and BP which is down another 3 dollars and heading for zero i suppose. Otherwise most mlps are fractionally higher with Nustar (NS) up 1.35 as the days big winner.

Tape feels firm but there are pressures out there.
LOVE BEING HUMBLED!



Of course right at the point yesterday that i was predicting the markets demise and mlps with it, the market turned and closed higher and the mlp index closed up over 2 points. And that rally mode continues this morning as futures are higher and slowly building on strength. So at least it looks like a fairly solid up open and we have something to build on for the rest of the day.

Earnings news with a nice quarter from Ferrellgas (FGP) which everytime i look at it, is trading around the same price; never seems to go anywhere. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) had one of its partially owned nat gas lines blow yesterday with one person killed. These are sensitive times when it comes to these sorts of events. But clearly this is not BP.

Crude is up this morning, nat gas is down a little. Gold traded yesterday at all time highs. The dollar is a little stronger against the euro (surprise) and european stock markets are firm ahead of the open. OOPS the euro has just turned higher and is over 120.

Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Just broke below 9800. Not looking good at all. MLPS off the lows of the day by about a point on the mlp index.
NOT LOOKING GOOD!



It doesn't look good out there. Rally attempts continue and they keep getting overwhelmed by sellers. I haven't thrown in the towel yet but it just feels like the markets want to break down in here so watch the last hour. Dow has gone from +70 to unchanged in a hurry in the last 20 minutes or so. MLPS were up earlier and now are down by 2 1/2 points on the index. We continue to out perform relatively speaking but that only means we are down less on a percentage basis. We are still down.

Drillers getting hit by the Goldman downgrade so there is some pressure from energy stocks as a whole though Exxon is up a buck or so for some reason. Most mlps are down major fractions with Plains All American (PAA) and Holly Partners (HEP) leading the losers list down just under a buck each. Williams (WPZ) is showing a 40 cent gain among a small list of winners.

Monday, June 07, 2010

Markets swinging back and forth but mlps seem to have the bit in the teeth and are now up at the highs of the day...up nearly 2 on the index as we enjoy lunch.
Suooco Logsitics is put on Goldmans conviction buy list which is something new. Cant remember an MLP being put on that list. The stock is up 1.88. Buckeye Partners is cut to sell by Goldman and it also cutring El Paso to neutral from buy. El Paso is up a fraction and Buckeye is down 70 cents.

MLPS up fractionally after the index ran up about 2 points at the high. The dow is a little higher in cautious back and forth early trade. The list is split 50-50 between winners and losers and the moves are fractional in nature.
STILL STRADDLING THE BOTTOM!





Friday's 300 plus point decline takes us right down the the very bottom that the Dow Industrials are trying to carve out. The MLP chart looks alot better and Friday's action was not as bad as the overall tape. So we have this going for us on this Monday morning. Stock futures overnight were sharply lower but have pulled back even as of this post. We are certainly entitiled to an up open but these levels have to hold on the Dow. Otherwise we could be at the brink of another serious leg down in stocks overall. Energy continues to have its umbilical cord tied to BP and the oil spill. MLPS have the big yield spread between them and the 10 year yield as a magnet for some money; that is as long as the risk trade is working.

Corporate news wise it is early and right now we have no headlines to speak of and no upgrades or downgrades. No doubt that Fridays employment numbers were awful. But i guess for traders that means that next month there could be upward revisions. The Euro has caught a bid under 120. Crude and nat gas are a little lower at the moment.

Friday, June 04, 2010

Job numbers was nothing short of awful. Take out the census workers and it is clear the private sector is still shrinking. Futures collapsing.
THE BIG "W"





We had an outstanding day yesterday in mlp land with the index up over 6 points. Suddenly we are poking our heads above the moving average support lines. And lets put this into a weekly context and you will notice that this entire correction has taking us right to support which has held. The daily chart looks like a W bottom formation. Considering how strong the relative outperformance is mlps may be poised to make new highs for the move.

Up 6 points, down 6 points, this seems to be the new world we live in. We have all noticed the mlp funds that have been showing up. Remember when a 1 or 2 point up or down move on the index was a big deal? Those days are gone folks. But with larger swings comes opportunity for those of you inclined to short term trade from time to time. Longer term the drivers for higher prices remain in place. Low long term rates on the 10 year and a yield spread over 3 percentage points will continue to drive money to the group. Also lets look at the BP mess and our little group looks like the safer way to play energy. No oil rigs blowing up here! All of this is playing into this bottom building process.

Stock futures are lower this morning ahead of job numbers which are due out shortly. Euro fears are swirling over Hungary and a few other nations. Futures are off their lows at the moment. Rates are falling in flight to quality. Energy is a little lower and we have no corporate news to speak of.

Sorry about yesterday's lack of posts but sometimes work gets a bit out of hand.

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

ANOTHER RALLY ATTEMPT!


An up open this morning but who knows if it will hold. Markets look defensive as evidenced yesterday with rally attempts being met with sellers and then the last half hour debacle that carried us down over 100 on the dow. MLPS did us a favor by giving up the ghost early thanks to the absolute throw them out the window pessimism that is all over the energy stocks thanks to BP and the gulf mess. So at least some plus signs at the open and then we'll see where we go. MLPS are above the trading lows so there is still some support if we can gain traction.

A few things of note today as Inergy Holdings (NRGP) which is the best performer of the last 15 months in the group is doing a 3-1 split. And Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is doing a public offering of 8 million shares. Its going to be down but for whatever reason they like to sell Penn Virginia Resource (PVR) when this happens. Not sure why since its the GP and not the LP doing the offering.

Okay we've opened higher by about a point on the MLP index so lets see where this goes today.


Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Looks like the end of month support is getting undone today in mlp land. That plus pressure on energy stocks in general thanks to BP and your seeing a sell off of 4 plus points on the mlp index. Kinder Morgan (KMP) Oneok (OKS) Buckeye (BPL) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Markwest (MWE) all down 1 point or more. A couple of small mlps like Breitburn (BBEP) and Penn Virginia (PVR) showing tiny gains and giving up the ghost as the energy pressure continues.

Looks like the battle of yield attraction vs the general hatred of energy right now is being one by the latter. Doesnt look hopeful for an up close in the group today. The overall market is a little higher but not by much.
POST HOLIDAY BOTTOM BUILDING?



Back from a soccer weekend in Baltimore/Washington so im a little groggy this morning but going foward. Starting a short week with selling this morning with futures down rather hard this morning..100 dow points as of this post. We are coming off a week of relative outperformance in MLPS especially Friday where the market just sank lower and lower while mlps held on and closed with a small loss. When you look at the chart we can see what could be bottom building and the beginning of what could be a wide trading range. The boundries look to be 275 ish at the bottom side. The top side is yet to be defined. The former uptrend lines and moving averages lie just above us and we need to get through those. 300 shows a little area of congestion that could prove tough..and then there is then high around 320. We'll let that part of the equation play itself out. The overall market holds the key to whether the bottom holds in mlps since we are in position to see the market go to lower lows while we do not. Certanly lots of questions.

Looking around this morning the news is non existent on the corporate front and nothing shows up on the upgrade downgrade list so far. The dollar is rallying this morning, rates are a little lower. Crude is down but nat gas is a little higher.