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Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Heading into the last hour we have a 2 point loss and it looks like we will have our first down day in the last 8. Most mlps down with a few exceptions. No one point losers today but a lot of mlps down in the 50 to 80 cent range.

Atlas Resource (ATN) just continues to move higher up 1 and change.
Sellers have arrived albeit on not very impressive volume. All this while the energy commodities just take off. Oil up to 112.00 up 3.60; a record high. Nat gas is up even more on a percentage basis up 40 cents and over 10 bucks. MLPS on the index down 2 which is the first down day after 7 up days in a row.

Linn Energy (LINE) has been stronger all day and is up 40 cents on 600,000 shares. Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) is continuing to rip higher up 1 and change and is up nearly 8 points since the Cramer goose last week.

E V Partners (EVEP) is down nearly 1 as the biggest loser but that one is up from 22 to 29 in a hurry. Many MLPS that are down are in the context of weak pullbacks after the recent rally.
CROSSTEX PLACES SHARES
ANOTHER UP OPEN


In a sign that not all is dead in MLP land Crosstex (XTEX) does a 3 million share placement of equity with Kayne Anderson and others at 30 bucks a share. They went to the well recently with a public offering so it would not have been in good taste to it again so soon. But its nice to see some interest and this is an MLP whose distribution coverage is pretty high. Stock is flat after opening higher.

Speaking of opening higher the MLP index has done it again and is continuing to run up against old support which has become resistence which is at 290 or so. It will break above that probably when the overall market takes out 12750 on the dow. Still sorting through the open and Atlas Holdings (AHD) and Atlas Resources (ATN) lead the way higher up major fractions. Copano (CPNO) is the biggest loser right now down 33 cents.

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

A small gain after another attack on 290 this morning. The mlp index is up 20 cents. Kind of a mixed day really with most moves fractional in nature in either direction. Some of the exceptions on the winning side Nustar Holdings (NSH) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) are both up about 1 on upgrades. Markwest (MWE) down 1 and change on its stock offering. Boardwalk (BWP) EV Partners (EVEP) and Magellan Holdings (MGG) seeing losses of 450 cents or more. DCP Midstream (DPM) seeing losses of 30 cents or so on its CFO leaving.

Looks like we continue to outperform relative to the market and i don't see that changing anytime soon.
Some moves by the anal-ists...Citigroup upgrades Nustar Holdings (NSH) and Enterprise Equity Holdings (EPE) to buy from hold. UBS ups Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) to buy from hold.
PLAINS BUYS RAINBOW
MARKWEST SELLS SHARES


News leftover from last night as Plains All American (PAA) is buying Canadian pipeline company Rainbow and its expected to be accretive to earnings in about 6 months. Nice to see a deal again. Markwest dropped 2 points after the close as it is doing a 5 million share stock offering. Money is to be used in the capital budget for growth this year and to retire some debt. And DCP Midstream's CFO is leaving for another job.

This morning we start the day at just under 289 as the rall from 262 continues to extend itself. Where this short term move ends is anybody's guess but as long as the overall market seems to have support we will still have the wind at our backs.

More as we move through the morning.

Monday, April 07, 2008

We cracked back above 290 on the MLP index briefly and we are sitting just under it now at 289 and change. Only 8 mlps are down and those are down 25 cents or less. EV Partners (EVEP) is the biggest loser and down 23 cents right now.

Long list of upside winners including Williams (WPZ) Atlas Holdings (AHD) Alliance Resource (ARLP) Natural Resource (NRP) all up about 1 point or more. And the list of fractional winners is nice and long.

Dow looking to breakout above that 12750 zone. If it does then lookout!
ARE WE ON THE VERGE OF A BIG RALLY?


Futures this morning telling us we're in for a strong start and after no sell off Friday on the employment numbers we continue to view the market as wanting to move higher.

Through all of this the dow transports have fared much better and in fact the transports are not too far away from setting an all time high...about 400 points or so away. Not impossible.

And of course we have our MLP chart which has come off its bottom and appears to be attempting to get back above 290 where the old base was from August. While the rally here started a little later than the dow, we have seen relative outperformance over the last 3 days and money returning to some of the harder hit PIPE victims. I would expect that trend to continue for the short term.
No morning headlines so far but this is an early post and no upgrades or downgrades have appeared yet. Crude oil is higher by 1 dollar this morning at 107 and change. Nat gas is up 15 cents. Dollar up..rates up. Based on yield spreads which have gotten to 400 basis points vs the 10 year we have tons of room to rally. And if we combine an increasingly favorable market enviornment for MLPS plus the next round of distribution increases coming plus spreads that could easily drop 100 basis points and we could be in for much higher prices.

Many of you are tackling your K-1's as we get out taxes done. And as always this time of year we get the MLP in and IRA question. Now i have MLPS in my IRA and i trade them in there. The issue is the UBTI or unrelated business income which if exceeds 1100 bucks triggers a tax event that will be paid with IRA money. Now my view on this is if you think MLPS are going to outperform longer term against anything else then its okay in my view to keep them in a IRA. As per the UBTI it is cumulative. In other words you can offset a positive UBTI in one MLP with a negative UBTI with another. And the yearly total if its a loss can be carried over to next year and beyond. And it is the responsibilty of the custodian of the account to do all the irs paper work. So all i do is collect the K-1s and mail it to Charles Schwab and they do the rest. Just some food for thought.

Friday, April 04, 2008

NICE WEEK!

Finally...a good week. 5 up days. Up 14 points on the MLP index from 272.72 to 286.62. And we are up 24.60 points from the low on March 20th. Was that the final climax bottom. Looks like it so far



As for the charts...the weekly chart has not gone to a buy yet on the MACD but that could happen if we are higher again next week. Now it would be nice if we could at least get back into that channel of 290 to 300. Meanwhile the market did very well today holding up under the bad employment number. And remember this number 2 months ago would have sent the market into meltdown mode. It really looks like it wants to go higher and to prove it we need a breakout above dow 12700 on heavy volume. And MLPS will be leading the way (hopefully).

Now everybody have a great weekend. First good week in a long long time.

RECOVERY CONTINUES


Another day of outperformance which is a good thing and we are seeing a recovery in the beaten down issues like Linn (LINE) Constellation (CEP) and a few others which makes this up move different from any other rally attempt since the fall. Couple that with the feeling that the market is setting up to rally off this employment number and we could make it 5 in a row today. But everything hinges on the 8:30am number.

UBS is upgrading Transmontaigne (TLP) to buy from hold. This one is thinly traded so it won't take much to take it over 30. Nothing else so far on the upgrade downgrade list. News from last night from Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which closed on its recent deal but the part that may mean something is the company financed it all with debt and not equity which would be a positive. And they were able to to get it at a favorable rate. As per the distribution we have this from the press release.


Portfolio Impact -- Management expects to recommend to the board of managers maintaining a cash distribution of $0.5625 per outstanding common unit and Class A unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2008, or $2.25 per unit on an annualized basis. The distribution level is anticipated as a result of the impacts of drilling delays encountered during 2007 associated with weather and integration delays in the Cherokee Basin and pending the outcome of the arbitration relating to the termination of the Torch Energy Royalty Trust. Management will continue to evaluate distribution levels on a quarterly basis taking into consideration overall portfolio performance, acquisition integration and market outlook. All changes in distributions are subject to approval by the company's board of managers.

So no distribution increase but when you are yielding 11.40% there is room to rally without one although a boost would have been nice. Company blames drilling delays from last year but if that is resolved distribution boosts could come later this year.

Energy is up this morning as are stock futures. The 2 year note is at 1.90% and i point this out because as the measure of fear...the 2 year rate climbs above 2% it would be an indicator that fear is decreasing and the appetite for risk increasing.

Thursday, April 03, 2008

MLPS moving higher (again) and we have gains in issues that have been down the hardest which are outperforming some of the bigger mlps which held up better so far this year. The tape has a nice feel to it so we'll see if the gains build. The index is up 1.15 at 282 and change.

Atlas Resource (ATN) has been booming since the Cramer goose on Monday up 1 and change and over 36. Eagle Rock (EROC) Williams (WPZ) Linn Energy (LINE) are fractional winners among others.

Small fractional losses among losers like Plains (PAA) Sunoco (SXL) and Hiland (HLND) but nothing really tragic.

Adding to gains as i post!
STRONG PERFORMANCE YESTERDAY
LETS SHOOT FOR 4 IN A ROW



Closed up nicely yesterday and what was particularly encouraging was that some of the decimated laggards like Linn Energy (EROC) and Constellation Partners (CEP) to name a couple made nice moves higher. So the MLP index chart continues a repair job off the damage done when we hit 262.00

Linn Energy (LINE) looks like it has put in a double bottom and now needs to move back above 24 for it to have some real meaning. More importantly is if we see followthrough today on Linn, Constellation, Eagle Rock, EV Partners and a few others it may mark the end of the hedge fund unwind and lend support that we had a portfolio blowout of mlps the week before Easter.

Also the issues mentioned are heavily held by Lehman Brothers and if the brokerage house was in trouble a few weeks ago when Bear Stearns went to pieces it might have added extra pressure which has now come off.

This morning is quiet on the news front and we have no upgrades or downgrades so far. Oil is down a buck after being up nearly 4 yesterday. Nat gas is up a few pennies ahead of nat gas numbers.

Finally this morning i went i and eliminated all offensive ads by hand...one by one. Now if i missed any let me know but the banner with the girls on it for the personals web site should no longer appear. If something slipped through the cracks please let me know.


Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Linn Energy up on 1.2 million shares; impressive. MLP index up 3 and small change and at the highs of the day.
Linn Energy said something because the stock is back over 20...the mlp index is over 281 and approaching a 3 point gain.
Market flat and MLPS higher with the index up over 2 points and back over 280. Williams (WPZ) Hiland (HLND) Atlas Resource (ATN) and Energy Transfer (ETP) are up 1 or more. Eagle Rock (EROC) and Constellation (CEP) Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Crosstex (XTEX) among the fractional winners.

A handful of losers and most of those just shedding small fractions or just a few pennies.
UBS starts Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) with a buy.
LOOKING FOR A DOUBLE PUMP


I actually was pretty happy with yesterday's mlp performance with a 3.50 gain on the index. If you remember how many times over the last few months we saw big dow up days with the index down significantly. At least now they are moving in sync which is a good thing. I also wouldn't worry too much of the one day relative outperformace...up 3% for the S&P vs up 1.50% for us. Over a series of days, if the move is a real one we will play catch up at some point. Critical levels of 1375 and 12,700 on the major averages could get taken out today and if that happens the arguement for "the" bottom becomes much more solid. Meanwhile MLPS can rally back to 290 on the index where the old support was but i would not get too excited until we get there.

The news front on MLPS is silent this morning and we have no upgrades or downgrades. So lets bring on the open and go from there.

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

MLP index up 3 points and at the highs of the day as the last hour brings in buyers. Overall market strong with the dow up 366. Looking to see mlps close near their days highs by the close.
2 point gain on the mlp index as we head into lunch time. And i would caution those of you who are despairing that we are lagging the dow. We do tend to lag the action of the broader market and i would wait until the close to come to any conclusions.

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Hiland Partners (HLND) lead the winners list up 1 and change though they are among the more thinly traded. Atlas Resource Partners (ATN) is up 2 and change on the Cramer goose last night and is the big winner so far today. Lots of fractional winners today like Oneok (OKS), Martin Midstream (MMLP) Crosstex (XTEX), Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL).

Small number on the losers and unchanged list. Holly Partners (HEP) Atlas Holdings (AHD) Nustar (NS) and Regency (RGNC) are off small fractions.

So far so good...looking for strength to build this afternoon....unless this is one awful April fools joke.
NEW QUARTER...NEW HOPE!


We're an optimistic bunch in here. Okay so the bear market has taken us out to lunch and the charts below look awful. But it is a new quarter. Distribution increases are coming and since we are sitting with a yield spread at nearly 400 basis points i think we can be optimistic that that spread will shrink. At least we can hold that open for this morning with stock futures strong.


We probably won't know when the bottom is in until we are long past it and we can look back and say...there it was.

Meanwhile one of the better looking charts is the chart of Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) which has held up better after its natural gas discovery a few months ago. Well last night Cramer gave this stock a big goose on Mad Money. No guarantees that he will be right...but hell broken clocks are right twice a day (only kidding).

Atlas is bidding 32 this morning up 1 and some change from yesterday's close. No other news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. Energy is down a touch this morning with oil and 101. Stock futures up 11.50 as of this posting.