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Friday, April 04, 2008

RECOVERY CONTINUES


Another day of outperformance which is a good thing and we are seeing a recovery in the beaten down issues like Linn (LINE) Constellation (CEP) and a few others which makes this up move different from any other rally attempt since the fall. Couple that with the feeling that the market is setting up to rally off this employment number and we could make it 5 in a row today. But everything hinges on the 8:30am number.

UBS is upgrading Transmontaigne (TLP) to buy from hold. This one is thinly traded so it won't take much to take it over 30. Nothing else so far on the upgrade downgrade list. News from last night from Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which closed on its recent deal but the part that may mean something is the company financed it all with debt and not equity which would be a positive. And they were able to to get it at a favorable rate. As per the distribution we have this from the press release.


Portfolio Impact -- Management expects to recommend to the board of managers maintaining a cash distribution of $0.5625 per outstanding common unit and Class A unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2008, or $2.25 per unit on an annualized basis. The distribution level is anticipated as a result of the impacts of drilling delays encountered during 2007 associated with weather and integration delays in the Cherokee Basin and pending the outcome of the arbitration relating to the termination of the Torch Energy Royalty Trust. Management will continue to evaluate distribution levels on a quarterly basis taking into consideration overall portfolio performance, acquisition integration and market outlook. All changes in distributions are subject to approval by the company's board of managers.

So no distribution increase but when you are yielding 11.40% there is room to rally without one although a boost would have been nice. Company blames drilling delays from last year but if that is resolved distribution boosts could come later this year.

Energy is up this morning as are stock futures. The 2 year note is at 1.90% and i point this out because as the measure of fear...the 2 year rate climbs above 2% it would be an indicator that fear is decreasing and the appetite for risk increasing.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

The CEP year-end call had already disclosed the financing details, and the acquisition was extremely expensive (especially considering that it was a drop-down from the parent). CEP is benefiting from a bounce after a severe sell-off, but the news of the closing yesterday shouldn't really be a factor.

joewxman said...

The restatement of no distribution increase today probably keeps some headwinds here. but at least its not falling compeletly apart.

Anonymous said...

I am interested in CEP but am new to MLP's and am not familiar with it's history. It's chart shows it was selling for $50 per share last August and steadily descended to $20 now. Why is that?

Anonymous said...

How can CEP continue to pay a dividend that is more than it earns ? Answer: it can't.