CHART WATCHING ON FED DAY

Thought it would be a good idea to take a look at some of the charts at this point that are relevant here. We will start of course with the one that looks the worst and that is...you guessed it...the AMZ MLP INDEX chart.

We continue to base build here and its at least somewhat encouraging that the index seems to be holding the 290 level which was old support before February and March did their damage. We still have not seen the moving averages cross to where the 34 is above the 89 day. But we are trying. Sentiment as measured by the posts on this board is hideous to the point of anger. We regard that as bullish.

The dow industrials chart has repaired itself quite nicely as it has built a bottom to rally off. And the moving averages are crossing and sloped positive. I am expecting the fed to do 1/4 and signal a pause. There could be a good rally off of this announcement particularly if the dollar rallies and commodities sell off on the news.

The XOI Oil index chart is a bit odd. Its been moving sideways for the last several months in a wide range and while it could be viewed as a triple top developing i'm not sold on this yet. Certainly if crude sells off we could see a trip back down to the bottom of the trading range.

Best for last is the gas index chart (XNG) which is been on a bull move with the occasional pullback and i think a selloff into the moving averages is about the worst we'll see on this one and that might be where mlps derive their support should a broader energy down move develope in the short term.


Okay now to some morning news items. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is testing moving ethanol through a pipeline. There are issues doing it this way and Kinder may have a solution. So they have a vested interest in keeping Ethanol alive if it is successful. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is buying a refinery and pipeline which will immediately add to the distribution.

Lehman is commenting on Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) by keeping it at "overweight" but knocking the target down from 30 to 25. Who cares when this one just keeps going down anyway. I think they better be clear on earnings day about what is going on in order to put a floor here and rally it back into the 20s.

Nothing else on the agenda this morning so we await the open and the fed. Crude is a little higher on a dead cat bounce. Stock futures stronger on GDP data.