LAST DAY OF Q1...LETS RALLY?

Why not. We finished off the lows of the day yesterday and MLPS actually managed to cut their losses to 3 points and some change. So this morning we are starting on a rally with the dow futures up 75 points. Crude is also up 1.50 as of this post. So lets hope that yesterday was a one day correction and that the rally phase that began 2 weeks ago will resume today.

No corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far. I have an early day heading out to a job (whoppee!!) so i shall post later today when i get the opportunity.

MLPS have been in a tight range since lunchtime showing losses between 4 and 5 points on the index. Its now nearing thay 5 point loss. Dow went to minus 305 at the low a little while ago and now upon lifting my head i see its back there again.

Ugly out there. Crude down 4 dollars and back under 50 bucks.

MLPS are down 2 1/2% on the index; just under 5 points. The DOW is down 270 or 3 1/2% so we have relative outperformance. Dow is sitting at 7500 as of this post. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and Cheniere LP (CQP) are the only 2 mlps up small fractions and they are both under 5 bucks anyway. Everything else is down and a number of mlps are shedding between 75 cents and a buck and a half. No corporate news.

The GM mess overhangs today so lets continue to chew through the mess.

MONDAY MORNING BLUES ON GM OUSTER
AND OTHER ISSUES

Futures taking a beating this morning of 19 points on the S&P as markets react to all sorts of stuff from the Rick Waggoner ouster at GM by our dear President. That's got all kinds of tounges wagging about socialism from the administration. Some are saying its blackmail among other things. Or maybe its the Kremlin. Markets aren't thrilled; thats for sure. Memeorandum has extensive coverage this morning.

Meanwhile this morning the charts are ambiguous at best on what is going to happen. MLPS have been moving sideways for the most part while the dow continues its rally from 6500. Of course that rally gets interrupted this morning and extends Friday's losses.



Since we are in rally mode lets see where we finish today and not where we start. If buyers truly have gained the upper hand here look for a floor to be hit at some point this morning and a climb back this afternoon. At least thats the ideal scenario. More wall street news this morning and perspective at 24/7 Wall Street.

MLPS are newsfree this morning and so far nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Crude is down a buck and a half this morning but still holding above 50 bucks. Commodities as a whole are down and the dollar is up against the euro and down against the yen.

Looks like we will be going out close to the lows of the day across the board. Good week for the overall market...mlps...not so much.

Dow down 172 and mlps down 3 and some change. Looks like all of the market gains from yesterday are being un-done. And MLPS which closed flat yesterday are continuing to perform relatively weak as has been pointed out in an earlier post.

Steifel Nicholas downgrade victims Alliance Resource(ARLP) and Alliance Holdings (AHGP) are among the biggest losers today down 1.74 and 1.00 respectively. Nustar (NS) is also a 1 point loser as is Boardwalk (BWP) although Boardwalk was up 1.65 on what turns out to be a 1600 share market on close order that went off a buck higher then the trades at 15:59pm so its just getting that close undone. Its trading in line with where it traded most of yesterday.

Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) among the few fractional winners today.

ARE WE BEGINNING TO LAG THE RALLY?

Steve posted that idea yesterday in the comments section. Lets discuss.

Something is definitely not right in MLP land again. The relative outperformance we saw the first 2+ months of the year has stopped and we have begun to lag the averages. Either the averages have gotten fluffy and we are keeping to a base line, or something less sanguine is afoot.

Steve is concerned with the relative underperformance and this week we have seen the mlp index go nowhere while the s&p is up 6%. Certainly disheartening when you consider the rest of the market. On the other hand mlps have been an outstanding outperformer in the last 3 months with a nearly 20% relative outperformance and total return for 2009 of about +15%. Should we worried by this weeks action? Perhaps we should be a bit concerned. One never wants to see underperformance. But could there be some other reasons why this is happening. I propose 2 ideas. One is that a number of mlps that actually have a price attached to them..that is higher than 15 bucks have done offerings. The latest was Buckeye (BPL) yesterday which was down 2 points on its latest stock offering. And based on the last rebalancing of the mlp index BPL has an over 3% weighting. Plains All American (PAA) and Inergy (NRGY) have also done stock offerings and the 2 have a combined weighting of over 8%. So certainly we can say these stock offerings have caused a distortion.

What could also be at play here is end of quarter and it could be that we are up so much for the year; players are moving out of mlps and into other things that have a long way to catch up. Ultimately that game plays itself out in a few days and we will be left with the basic question unanswered. Steve goes on to say...

I'm going to be really disappointed if in the next market downdraft we find that we are giving it all back - or worse, leading the market down. If we have topped out and are rolling over, we may lead on the downside.

Should we be worried? Well we should always be worried. But there are enough positives out there including a firmness in the crude price to give us a little bit of space. All will be resolved in the fullness of time but Steve correctly points out that we should be on watch.

Well we have arrived at the end of the week and the end of the quarter is next Tuesday. So i would look for markets to correct the move but with a firm tone. 875-900 is a doable target on the S&P and 205 on the MLP would be logical. Stefil Nicholas is cutting Alliance Holdings (AHGP) and Alliance Partners (ARLP) from buy to hold. Crude is down about a buck this morning and stock futures are down 10 points on the S&P as we see profit taking after the big moves this week.

Adding 24/7 Wall Street to the blog roll. Like the look of the blog and there looks to be some good pieces there. Plus he posted about an mlp (BPL) which means he is okay in our book!

Here is that smart money piece on mlps. I found the link that one our posters lost.

Buckeye(BPL) is down 1.84 as it adds shares to its offering and prices it at 36.25. Its a drag in the mlp index a bit as it is up a fraction. Most MLPS are actually fractionally higher as we head into lunchtime. The dow is up 80 points or so as it continues to build on the mommentum moose.

CNBC ALERT...MLPS going to be discussed sometime between now and 11am. I will post the video asap.

Buckeye (BPL) trading down nearly 2 dollars in the premarket on the secondary. Seems a bit much since its just a 2 million share sale but it is the pre market. Stock futures near their highs of the day with the dow up 80 points and 54 above fair value.

IMPRESSIVE YESTERDAY AFTER THE INTRADAY SELLOFF PLUS THE LATEST FROM THE LAND OF GASBAGS!

From a 200 point gain at lunch time the market proceeded to sell off nearly 300 points to an almost 100 point loss as we headed into the last hour. And then as some critical points on the S&P were getting breached the ship turned rapidly around and we finished up nearly 100 points.



MLPS of course followed along and went from plus 2 to minus 2 to nearly plus 2 at the close. Crude yesterday also staged a reversal after bearish api numbers. So the tape is certainly signally that the bulls are in control and we are headed higher from here certainly in the short term. The mlp index is beginning to get above its moving averages which is a great sign however we need to see the lines cross as we have been at this point before, only to see the selling resume. This time my guess is we are going to be successful.

No news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Buckeye Partners (BPL) joins the list of mlps doing offerings as they come to market with a secondary. With a nearly 40 dollar stockprice you can do those sorts of things. Stock futures are stronger this morning along with higher energy as they continue to move together.

I pulled this from Bloggingheads tv and its worth the watch. It was from the congressional hearing (again) the other day. Our dear Maxine Waters is asking Mr Geithner about that infamous Goldman Sachs conspiracy which is right up there with the Kennedy conspiracy and the Oil Company conspiracy. Pay attention to 2 things. First off watch the looks on Geithners face throughout all this. You know he wants to slap her and then duct tape her mouth shut. And then watch the ticker scrolling other news on the bottom of the screen and the words "braindead" move across. Hilarious!

Kind of reminds you of the battle between bulls and bears. Just don't mention the war!

Dow up just under 200 after strong durables and stronger than expected housing numbers. Crude was down before API numbers and is now rallying back to the flat line even though the numbers were in line bearish. MLPS are up with the index up just over 2 1/2 points. Almost the whole group is higher although we don't have any 1 point plus winners right now. Nustar (NS) Buckeye Holdings (BGH) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Enbridge (EEP) lead the way higher up major fractions.

FOR ALL THE WORK IN THE RALLY WE ARE STILL JUST BACK TO THE NOVEMBER LOWS

We have gone from 660 to 825 on the S&P and yet when you look at the chart we haven't really done much unless you want to argue that we are essentially going sideways since November. If that is the case then 900 is doable on the S&P on this rally leg. And the tape in my view certainlly feels so much better. So the path of least resistence continues higher short term.


MLPS are up 10% for the year which is nice plus we have a distribution in hand giving us 12% plus total return depending on your holdings of course. The mlp landscape continues to remain littered with mlps that trade with penny stock handles. 15 mlps/gps sell for under 10 dollars which is still below the high of 24 back in November. On the other side of this 13 mlps sell for above 25 dollars. New money in my view should be put into those mlps who have no danger of distribution cuts. Putting them in the ones that have 1 and 2 handles is literally a casino bet. However one should note that there could be big gains for you if you can find the one that does eventually recover.

Not much news on the corporate side this morning. We have an insider buy of 4000 shares at Ferrellgas (FGP). Otherwise its inventory numbers for crude today which is down ahead of the number. Stock futures a little higher this morning but not by much.

Some blog stuff this morning..love the cartoon at Naked Capitalism this morning. A bit of Canadian perspective here. Also in case you haven't had enough of gasbags going on and on we have live streaming of todays round of gasbags here.

Now in case you missed it there was this fabulous exchange yesterday.
Gentle Ben get pissed off or at least as pissed off as you will ever see the fed chairman. Remind me never to ask him a "poorly posed" question.

MLPS with double digit stock prices seem to be running to the well. Teekay LNG Partners comes to market with a stock offering of 4 million shares.

Market gave it up in the last half hour but nothing overally tragic. MLP index closed down a little less than 2 points.

MLPS holding up well today with the index down about 1 point as the dow pulls back about 70. Not bad really after a 6 point mlp index gain and a 500 point dow gain yesterday.

Nustar (NS) Holly Partners (HEP) and Genesis (GEL) are fractional winners. Otherwise moves are small in either direction .Oneok (OKS) Suburban Propane (SPH) Transmontaigne (TLP) and TC Piipelines (TCLP) among the fractional losers.

Waiting for the Washington gasbags to be done with another round of absolutely endless testimony. I guess its our only chance to see Barney Frank and Maxine Waters blather on and on and on.

INERGY PARTNERS LP DOING AN OFFERING
BECAUSE THEY CAN. DOES THE RALLY EXTEND?

Usually when the markets rally big like they did yesterday and close right at the high of the day, we see some sort of consolidation or pullback the next day and we see weak futures at the open. We had another 90% upside day yesterday on some volume so the overall trend short term remains higher. And taking out 805 on the S&P was a good thing so it looks like the wind overall continues to be at our back and MLPS should follow along.

Inergy Partners (NRGY) is among those mlps that has held up well over this horror show. So since they actually have a stock price they can work with its time for another offering of shares. The stock is down 1 in the pre market this morning. Thats about it on the news front so far this morning. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Stock futures a little weaker after yesterdays 500 point dow gain. No surprise here. Energy a touch softer too and we have inventory numbers out at 10:35am.

Looks like Nustar Holdings (NSH) has broken out of a beautiflul looking base!

Proctologist exam for those among you who were curious. My prostrate was as he described it..a "thing of beauty. Perfect and tiny!" I have been drinking a combination of fresh pure pomegranite and blueberry juice every day for the last couple of years. He said keep doing it. Also as an italian cooked tomatoes are good. I was breast fed on that and wine!

MLPs soaring with everything else. The index is up nearly 6. The dow up 260. All mlps are up today which is always nice to see. One thing ive noticed is that my portfolio value is the same today that it was when the dow rallied to 9000 at the very beginning of this year. So with the dow 1400 or so points lower my valations are about to break out to a 2009 high! Divergence. Nustar (NS) is up 2. Holly(HEP) Boardwalk (BWP) Enbridge (EEP) Oneok (OKS) and Alliance (ARLP) up 1 point or more.