Closed at 227.05 which beats the early November high by 3 points as the dow rallies up 96 points at the close. This has got to be end of month stuff going on here but the path of least resistence is higher. A pullback could come at anytime of course and i will evaluate Monday's trading to get some clue as to whether we correct back to the 210 area (which is where the rising moving average support lines are) or do we run to the next level which is 240 on the MLP index.

A 4 point gain on the mlp index which is being led by Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) up 1.65. Only 5 mlp issues are down and except for Exterran Partners (EXLP) the rest are occupying the land under 10 dollars.

I guess the intraday November high of 227.45 has a chance of being taken out especially since we could see some end of month action in the last hour.

I hope everyone's portfolio is feeling better these days.

MLP index hits 226. We are .95 above the early November high! We are up 50 points on the index since January 1st or up 28.4% not including 2 distributions.

What other group can say that????

Getting very close to 226! Glory!

At little after the noon hour and up 3 on the mlp index while the overall tape is essentially flat. Holly Partners (HEP) is up 1.30 and leads the winners list. Nustar (NS) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are up nearly 1 each and Nustar is at another 52 week high. Lots of fractional gains strewn across the board.

Not many losers on the list today. Looks like a nice finish to a nice week!

Up nearly 3 now at 225 plus so we have pretty much hit that 226 target in my book. At some point a pullback will be in order but with energy rising its hard to know when that point will be reached. Again if we decisively take out 225 then the next logical place on the chart is 240.

Nat gas numbers due out any minute. Might be nice if two of my holdings, Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Exterran Partners (EXLP) move please. They've gone no where this week.

THE NOVEMBER HIGH!

I posted last night that my 226 target is within reach and looking at the way the markets and energy are behaving in the pre market we could get there in the first half hour!. Of course the obvious question is now what.
We are at a bit of an important inflexion point in my view. If we breakout above 226 and keep going i mentioned that the next logical stop would be 240 and that takes us back to last September before the meltdown. Certainly with crude above 60 dollars it is helpful to mlps that have been hurt extra hard by the collapse in oil to 33 bucks. Nat gas is only now perhaps coming off its low and is back above 4 dollars. There is room for nat gas to rally in here. Looks like laddering in for me was a good thing as i am now sitting on a nice profit after just a one day move.

Linn Energy got another Cramer goose on mad money last night and the stock is back at 20 dollars this morning in the premarket.
20 takes us back to last September before the meltdown. Glory!

This morning no corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Crude is up a buck to 66 and nat gas up 11 cents to 4.07 as of this post. Nat gas numbers due out today are expected to be bearish showing a rise in storage. If thats already baked into the cake it could move higher. Stock futures are up 7 points before the 8:30 news onslaught begins.

Nustar is making 52 week highs. In fact its at 18 month highs!!! All time highs are up around 60 bucks.

4-Nov-08

222.92

227.45

222.92

225.05

0

225.05

Those numbers above are the open intraday high low and close on November 4th. We're very close here! Now in the event that we clear that level the next important level in my view would be the 240 level.

Just hit 223 up 3.65 and at the highs of the day! Glory!

Up 3 points on the mlp index with strong rallies in stocks, energy and in the energy complex. Nustar (NS) Plains All American (PAA) and Kinder Morgan are leading the way up around 1 point or so. Most mlps are showing nice fractional gains.

That 226 target on the mlp index looks reachable soon.

Another Linn Energy goose (LINE) and a goose for Nat gas!

THE SAGA OF THE TEN YEAR!

In case you weren't paying attention the 10 year yesterday sent you a wake up call as rates soared yesterday some 20 basis points to 3.75% which sent the stock market into the toilet with a loss of 175 on the dow. MLPS held on to a fractional gain yesterday which considering what happened after 2pm yesterday was quite the victory.
Now at least so far this rise in rates for MLPS has not been a bad thing at all. Notice that mlps and rates bottomed around the same time last December and they have rallied together. Remember i said at least so far it hasn't been a bad thing. Much of the rate rise has been the improvement in the credit markets. Now however the rate rise is taking on the fact that we have endless bond supply coming to the market and the fear that all this government action will mean inflation down the road. Fears need not necessarily mean reality however so until we see divergence between MLPS and the rise in yields, the uptrend remains intact.

This morning we have flat stock futures, flat energy prices, flatish gold, flat dollar except against the yen where its soaring for whatever reason. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades.

One of the interesting developements in this rally phase is watching how mlp's behave during sell offs. They tend to outperform on a relative strength basis and this is a very good sign. Now after a day like today where the dow sells off 180 points we will probably play a little catch up tomorrow. Also interesting today is the fact that crude did not sell off with the market. And nat gas closed unchanged on the day.

Watching for any headlines after the close.

We are now over 221 and up 2 and some change in here. 1 point plusses in Alliance Resource (ARLP) Energy Transfer (ETP) and Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP). Most mlps showing fractional gains in here including Penn Virginia Resources (PVR), Natural Resource Partners (NRP) Alliance Holdings (AHGP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP). Looks like the coal mlps are leading today as coal (KOL) is up 4% today.

Not many losers and most are down 20 cents or less. Nothing of note there.

The mlp index is back over 220 up a little over 1 point. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is the biggest winner today up 73 cents but most mlps are trading between + 50 cents to down 40 cents as of this posting. Overall market a little softer but not far from the flatline.

APPROACHING 220!

Nearing 220 on the mlp is where our target was when this sawtooth rally began in January and then began again in early March. Still no sign we've reached a top yet but 225 looms large and we will watch what happens when we get there.

Its a pretty quiet morning around here with no corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Curde is nearing 63 dollars. Nat gas traded lower and closed higher yesterday as it neared its low from a few weeks ago so a double bottom could be forming there (we can only hope and pray). Stock futures are flat to a little lower after yesterday's big rally.

Doing well in here up over 2 points and around 219 on the mlp index. Firm close it appears. Even nat gas has turned higher! Glory!

A one and three quarter point gain on the MLP index on a day with dow up 150. No standout gainers as the biggest winners like Buckeye Partners (BPL) Transmontaigne (TLP) and Suburban Propane (SPH) are up major fractions but no one point winners yet.

A few mlps are down with Alliance Resource (ARLP) the biggest loser off 50 cents and Breitburn (BBEP) is down 46 cents as a larger percentage loser. Otherwises most losses are small fractions.

Markets have a tailwind today so i expect a challenge to the 220 level. later today.

4 RELEVANT CHARTS

Tuesday after a long holiday weekend requires a little brain refreshing so here are 4 charts this morning and let us see what conclusions or ideas if any we can derive from them.



That Nat gas chart by far is the worst looking and it seems that only now that it is trying to carve out the beginnings of a bottom. The downtrend is broken but as measured by the UNG we could be in a range of 13-17 for a little while. I can't believe nat gas is going under 3.00 in the futures so this should be a safe place to accumulate in here.

The crude oil chart on the other hand looks a lot more constructive and we have a nice base built there. As measured by the USO it could run to 40 before being turned back. That takes us back to the December high. And of course equities will play a roll here as it appears 50 s&p points equals about 7 dollars in the crude price. Players can use the USO or for the more agressive the DXO which is the double crude and do "ladder" in.

The dow chart is still in the context of a base and it has an inverse head and shoulders look but to confirm that we need to take out 9000 which only takes us back to January 1st on that chart. The mlp index of course has been in its own little world as its up nearly 30% total return since January 1st. If it ain't broke don't fix it is my view. We're the leaders here and there is no sign if that changing.

This morning is free of corporate developements. We do have Citigroup downgrading Legacy Reserves (LGCY) but they have a 14 dollar going priviate offer on the table. Stock futures are only slightly lower as they have rallied from the morning lows of -7 to -2 on the S&P. The open lies straight ahead.

CALL ME NUTS BUT I'M BUILDING
A NAT GAS POSITION

I know...I know...the chart looks awful but i think we're in a good place in here to build a position in Nat gas using UNG. I've been buying a little each day and if this hideous chart bears me out i think we are putting in a double bottom in here (i hope) in which case a rally to the low 20s seems doable.


Everything in nat gas is bearish. Its so bearish and we're in the 3.50 area in futures. I just think this is a good place and that its all sold out. The rest of energy has rallied and perhaps its time for nat gas to catch up. Just my lil ol humble opinion and no guarantees folks.

Okay its Friday ahead of the holiday weekend and coming off yesterdays 2 point loss in the mlp index which was well off the lows. Markets are firm this morning ahead of the open so perhaps we will go into the weekend on an up note. The 8250 level has held yet again on the Dow Industrials. I still have a 225-230 target on this move for MLPS so there is still some upside headroom. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades at this early hour.

I will be running around today so i will post on the twitter bar when i can. Note that after midday i would think trading will slow to a crawl anyway.