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Friday, May 22, 2009

CALL ME NUTS BUT I'M BUILDING
A NAT GAS POSITION


I know...I know...the chart looks awful but i think we're in a good place in here to build a position in Nat gas using UNG. I've been buying a little each day and if this hideous chart bears me out i think we are putting in a double bottom in here (i hope) in which case a rally to the low 20s seems doable.


Everything in nat gas is bearish. Its so bearish and we're in the 3.50 area in futures. I just think this is a good place and that its all sold out. The rest of energy has rallied and perhaps its time for nat gas to catch up. Just my lil ol humble opinion and no guarantees folks.

Okay its Friday ahead of the holiday weekend and coming off yesterdays 2 point loss in the mlp index which was well off the lows. Markets are firm this morning ahead of the open so perhaps we will go into the weekend on an up note. The 8250 level has held yet again on the Dow Industrials. I still have a 225-230 target on this move for MLPS so there is still some upside headroom. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades at this early hour.

I will be running around today so i will post on the twitter bar when i can. Note that after midday i would think trading will slow to a crawl anyway.

3 comments:

SHK said...

Does anyone out there do covered writes on MLPs? If so, what has your experience been?

steve

Anonymous said...

Steve,

Are you asking if any of us write covered calls on our MLP positions? I don't, but I would imagine that would have been a profitable strategy last year, but not so profitable this year.

Joe, I really like your natural gas position building idea. Nat gas is all beat up, but if you believe T Boone Pickens, it's the place to be. It's super cheap now and, yes, it can always get cheaper, but when it starts heading back, that move will probably be decisive.

Lee

joewxman said...

one problem with writing covered calls on mlps is that the bid ask spreads are wide enough to drive a mac truck through. I've been trying to write covered calls on some of these and its impossible unless you go at the market in which case its suicide.

As per nat gas..if this isn't the bottom or close to it??? i sure hope so. Thats why i've been building the position slowly in this sell off on the UNG from 17.