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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

ANOTHER STOCK OFFERING; CRUDE OVER 60!



Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) joins the long list of companies coming to market with equity and they are selling 9 million shares. This will probably take a couple of points out of the price today.
Notice the stock chart has been remarkably in a range between 20 & 24 except for the period when markets imploded from October through December. In fact this stock never went anywhere close when the rest of the markets made their lows in early March.
The above chart is the crude chart as measured by the USO which is a proxy for crude. It has put in some sort of bottom after an extremely steep decline. It looks like we have bottomed down around 33 bucks on crude which translates to 23 a share on the USO. There is room here for a run as high as 40 on the USO which could mean a trip to 65 to 70 dollars for crude itself. Maybe this all is tied to a run in stocks to the 200 day moving averageS (dow 8800-8900), S&P (945). MLPs as we have pointed out have already pushed above the 200 day so we have a tail wind to take us to 220-230 land before we get a setback. Gasoline btw continues strong and is up an other 3 cents this morning. BTW for those of you who have to contemplate things like heating oil contracts or buy lots of gasoline it occurred to me that you can hedge your personal usage with these oil and gas proxies like USO,UNG,or UGA(proxy for gasoline) or even use the DXO if you want to double leverage crude. Add up your energy use for a year and then buy an appropriate number of shares. Its that simple. Then you don't have to worry. Keep that argument handy when the energy conspiracy theorists start raging.

Not much happening so far this morning in corporate developements and its a little early but no upgrades or downgrades so far. Crude inventory numbers are due out later this morning and that could provide some volitility. Stock futures are higher this morning at least so far.

Saw this on the Street dot com about a heavy mlp investor and what he is doing.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the link to the article about Seth Klarman. He is one smart cookie (he used to teach at Harvard but today is pretty invisable - almost reclusive, but he has a phenominal investment track record). It's good to know we are in such esteemed company. It might not actualy make me any smarter, but it sure as hell makes me feel smarter.

Lee