PREAKNESS 134!

Okay boys and girls its the second leg of the triple crown and this one has some much excitement not just for Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird going for the second leg of the triple crown; but we also have a lady in the bunch Rachel Alexandra who is going to make this a race to remember.

What you want to know however is who is going to win. Well its time for this players never to be humble opinion.

1. BIG DRAMA

Absolute speed ball in here as he has thrown down the sword in all of his races and wings out 3/4 miles in under 109. He comes into this race with 6 wins in a row. The Swale win at Gulfstream came with a track record time although he was disqualifed and placed second there. We add an 1/8th of mile here to his longest race to date and i think the big question here is can he build up a big enough lead on a speed favoring track and then hang on for dear life in the end. He is morning line 10-1 so there is value here. Tend to think he will fall short when push comes to shove but he will be a factor underneath. Using

2. MINE THAT BIRD

Put me on the list of those who believe he is not the real deal here however lets make no mistake here. Calvin Borel was brilliant in his ride in the Derby by saving every inch of ground and passing tired horses in the stretch. He won't be 50 to 1 this time around. He will be just outside the main speed here and that will allow new pilot Mike Smith to maneuver into a good position early without much traffic trouble. My guess is he will lay back and make one good run into the close hoping that Big Drama and a few others just kill each other off in a speed duel. Siding with others in here.

3. MUSKET MAN

A better trip in the Derby probably cost this horse second money as he got edged out by Pioneer of the Nile by a nostril. This horse fires every single time he runs with 5 wins and 2 thirds in 7 starts. He is a lay back off the pace type and would love a speed duel upfront to make a run at the 1/4 pole. I think he could be a real player in here especially if the speed upfront collapses. Certainly should use underneath and he should be 8-1 or so which is a nice price. Definitely playable and a win candidate.

4.LUV GOV

Maiden breaker race above came on Derby day in the slop but it took this D Wayne Lucas/Marylou Whitney entry 10 races to get to wire first. Was it the slop that day that made it the game changer? Possibly. No doubt this is a talented colt but we're in the deepest end of the pool here. A wet track brings this guys prospects up a bit but you are asking an awful lot for a recent maiden breaker to take on horses at the top of the game. He'll be boxcar odds and you will be payed well in the unlikely event he gets to the wire first.

5.FRESIAN FIRE

He was no where to be found in the derby as the favorite where is was a victim of all kinds of traffic trouble. So he is back in here to try it again in a smaller field and if the track comes up sloppy again he could repeat his Louisiana Derby win shown above. But he going to have Big Drama up front and he is likely to stalk behind and pounce should the speed ball fall apart at the head of the stretch. However he won't be alone looking to take the lead and i wonder which Fresian Fire will we see today. You might get 6-1 or higher to find out which gives us some value here. He'll have to have everything fall his way to get his picture taken today.

6.TERRAIN

He seems to be looking for that breakthrough race. He did not run badly at all in the Bluegrass at Keeneland and he could be a factor in the lane especially if we get a quick pace. He finished second to Square Eddie who is not here due to injury. If he gets a hot pace and a little luck he could be one of those horses closing down the stretch. He's going to need a little racing luck. Jeremy Rose takes the reigns here who one a couple of years ago on Afleet Alex who fell at the head of the stretch and somehow he managed to stay on. Definitely usable underneath and you will get 30-1 or higher on a win bet.

7. PAPA CLEM

Finished an okay 4th and its awfully tough to make up ground in the Churchill stretch when your running in the middle of the race track but 20 horse fields will do that to you. His 2 slop races saw him lose by some lengths including a 7 length second to Friesan Fire in the above race. Maybe a better trip will make a diffence here and if we get the Arkansas Derby winner tomorrow he will be tough. Mixed feelings here.

8. GENERAL QUARTERS

No where in the derby. Maybe it was the slop. Maybe it was the fact that he was steadied twice in the race. So lets toss that one out and look back at his Bluegrass win which was pretty nice at 15-1. He stayed close to the pace and pounced at the head of the stretch and drove to a win. He has Julian Leparoux aboard who has ice water in his viens when it comes to riding. Still he may be a cut below others in here especially as many of the Derby finishers are back here for seconds. Looking elsewhere.

9.PIONEER OF THE NILE.

Okay i admit it. Put me on the list of the unbelievers in here who thought his west coast races were not impressive. Credit Garret Gomez for getting the horse up front early and away from the calvary charge behind him. Finished second in the Derby but it doesn't get my pulses racing that he ran the last 1/4 mile in something like 27 seconds while Mine that Bird ran it in 25. He is popular in the west and likely to be overbet in here. On the plus side the slop didn't bother him nor did the first trip on dirt so he could improve in here. Can't blame anyone who would bet him.

10. FLYING PRIVATE

Had to go all the way back to his maiden special weight race in Saratoga last summer where he flashed some talent. Since then his stock was climbing going into the derby with a decent 2nd in the Lanes End and a not bad 5th to Papa Clem in the Arkansas Derby. He clearly did not like the slop and finished in another zip code in the Derby. Prospects for rain at Pimlico no help here and he has yet to show any kind of breakthrough performance that you could point to and say bet me. Still eligible to run in a non winners of one allowance which doesn't say much. He'll be box car odds in here again and deservingly so.

11.TAKE THE POINTS.

Like how this horse has progressed. He is lightly raced and while he was clearly second best in the Sham he was second to The Pamplemoose who maybe was the best 3 year old around until he got injured prior to the Santa Anita Derby. Prado is back on who has been on him for his 2 wins. He will be a decent price on the odds board. Seems to fire every time and i think i will land here for my longshot pick Preakness winner.

12.TONE IT DOWN

Can't find a video link to his Tesio Stakes try. He is another lightly raced colt who has yet to try graded stakes company so its right to the deep end today. His 2 wins were okay but nothing special and while he has last years Preakness jock winner on Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux its going to take alot to bring this boy home as his speed figures are well below the best in here. Should finish up the track but if you use underneath in exotic bets you will get a price.

13. RACHEL ALEXANDRA

Super filly as Tom Durkin calls her and no doubt about it. Her 20 1/4 length win took her into another league in the girls division. New owners have decided to try the boys in here and i guess who can blame them. Owners are also the owners of Curlin who nosed out Street Sense 2 years ago. However this time she is facing the toughest race of her career and she will not be able to just simply stalk and pounce as Big Drama will run at a pace she has not seen. She draws post 13 which i think will be a huge advantage to her as Calvin Borel (who comes off the derby winner to stay with her which is unheard of) will be able to see how the race shapes up in front of him and will put her in a good spot. He said he doesn't know how good she is and he will have a great opportunity here to find out. Its her race to lose and at less than 2 to 1 odds she will be overbet and offer no value. So while i think she could win this race i think from a betting angle you can find nice prices elsewhere. But i will be routing for her and using in all double, pick 3, and pick 4 tickets.