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Friday, June 06, 2008

OIL GOING PARABOLIC (AGAIN)
BIG BROWN TRIPLE CROWN?



First off the MLP index yesterday closed up 2 points and some change which was okay but pales in comparison to the nearly 4% gain in energy stocks as a whole.


But the big story this morning is the parabolic move in oil which began yesterday when Oil was around 121. It has been nearly straight up since then as we closed yesterday around 128 for a 6 dollar gain. And it was the biggest one day dollar gain ever.
And it continues this morning as crude adds another 3 dollars as of this post in European trading to 131. No news that i could find. Its not the dollar as its a little higher this morning. No supply disruption in the news. Its just totally insane. The chart shows a bounce right at support and the trendline but a 10 dollar rally in a matter of hours? This just has to be the last gasp in here. Is it a contratrend rally against the decline from 135 to 120 or are we still in this mega uptrend with no top in sight. I am still of the opinion that 135 was "the" top last week. But the action from yesterday makes you wonder whether it was just "a" top and not necessarily "the" top.

This is an early post this morning so i will put up headlines as they cross. This is a busy day around here as i begin handicapping the race card for Belmont Day and will Big Brown become the first triple crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.


In case you missed it below is Big Brown's preakness win where he walked home to capture the second leg of the triple crown.




Now the only horse that maybe has a shot in here is Casino Drive off of this win in the Peter Pan at Belmont a few weeks ago.

If Casino Drive wins it will be the 3rd horse in a row to win the Belmont that is out of the same mare which is incredible from the breeding perspective. Jazil, Rags to Riches(filly), and Casino Drive are all half brothers and sister and share the same mother Better Than Honor. The pedigree is there for a mile and half, no question. But Casino Drive is very lightly raced, has never run 2 turns, and has problems with big crowds in Japan. And he will have 120k people out there screaming in 90 degree heat.

I think trading oil is easier!

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