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Monday, June 23, 2008

WELL KIDS...
AT LEAST ITS NOT THE MARCH LOWS
NOT YET ANYWAY



Looks like we've reached critical mass in here with the Dow getting ready to test the bear market lows. We have the fed meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. Oil in a channel between 130 and 140 as we wait for a breakout either way. So all kinds of push and pull to make the casino pretty lively this week.

We in MLP land where admittedly we suffer quietly with nice yields (unlike banks..no danger of distribution cuts) the chart sits a little better. which is sort of like comparing a second degree burn to a third degree. Still we are outperforming (going down less ) and thats a good thing. And if you are lucky enough to be holding any of the coal or resource mlps you are in a pretty good place.
I put the XOI chart of big oil to illustrate that big energy is showing signs of weakness lately and we may be following the stock market no matter what the energy complex does. Looks like a down close today for the XOI would point to lower prices for big energy stocks as a whole although admittedly the nat gas stocks are holding up better.
And lastly the USO which is a proxy for crude continues to trade above its breakout from 2 weeks ago. The potential for an island reversal continues but we're still waiting. BTW while i have been posting the dollar has strengthened considerably and crude oil which was up nearly 3 bucks at one point overnight is barely higher now by 55 cents. Hope springs eternal for a breakdown.

And can u imagine that even the mighty Saudi's can't seem to move the oil price. They have thrown everything at this including asking for tighter regulation and it does nothing. You can only watch in awe...like Nasdaq in 1999.

This morning MLP land is quiet and calm. No news..no upgrades or downgrades. 2 movers of note on Friday. E V Partners (EVEP) was down 2.50 on no news. Could have been some sort of option arbitrage or a position unwind. Nothing confirmed. Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) was up 3 dollars on nice volume and no news. Nothing that i could find here either other than perhaps a special distribution rumour.

Crude oil has just turned lower by 33 cents as gold is collapsing by 23 dollars. Maybe the key to all of this is a big dollar rally.

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