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Thursday, March 04, 2010

THE JURY IS OUT!




As advertised yesterday 300 is the big wall and we went up to the Feb 19-22 high and reversed closing lower on the day by over 2 points. And yes it was a "key" reversal which means we traded higher then the day before's high and lower than the day before's low. So there you have it the bull market in mlps is over..time to sell or get short. Well before you go to cash lets look a little closer. Daily key reversals to the negative have a historical record of proving to be statistical noise. Far more significant would be a weekly key reversal and as the weekly chart shows below, we would need to drop somewhere below 288 to get one of those. Also the trading character yesterday was very boring and frankly way to predictable.

The weekly chart is still firmly locked in its uptrend and i think we are going to need to see a whole lot more to convince me that 300 is the trading top for this rally phase. I guess its all going to culminate with the jobless number tomorrow which everyone knows has snowstorms built into it. Never a dull moment.

This morning its a firming stock market but not by much. Energy is a little lower but not by much either. The dollar is a little higher and rates are basically flat. In corporate developments we have Teekay LNG (TGP) which is announcing a deal to buy 3 ships for 160 million and the purchase comes with a pre announced 3 cent distirbution increase for the next quarter. No indications in the pre market.

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