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Thursday, March 18, 2010

MERRILY WE GRIND ALONG!


Nothing much has changed as we start the new morning. Another up day yesterday albeit a small one as we are on an 8 day winning streak here. MLPS also chugging along which is nice. Thought i would bring up the weekly chart of the 10 year and its interesting because we can clearly see where the demise of Lehman was. And no market has confounded more bears than this one-


At least from a trading perspective we've been in this extended trading range between 3.20 and 4 percent. The bears on bonds have been hammering the theme of rising rates and its not that i disagree with them but this alarm has been sounded and the market has been pretty much sideways for a year. I will say that when the break above 4 happens it will be fast and furious. I wont go out as far as to say that the event will occur with a shift in the rates up stocks up relationship as stocks might be able to absorb such a rise if its percieved as part of the normalization process and not a sign of approaching inflation.

The mlp index weekly chart has been on its steady march upward and we are on a 6 week winning streak here and no sign of a short term top. We had a 4 point selloff earlier in the week and we got that all back already. So the path of least resistence is higher. I would love to offer more pearls of wisdom here but its very hard to fight the tape. I'm still a bit cautious in here because there is that 300-310 range going back to 2007 and that could be the reason why the rally pace has slowed a bit. But the truth is MLPS are trading with the character they used to have before the markets fell apart and its much easier to make money this way.

Nothing much happening this morning. Stock futures have turned slightly higher this morning. Crude is a little lower. Nat gas is lower. Nat gas in fact on a weekly basis is down 6 weeks in a row and is very oversold but that doesnt mean it can't stay that way for a long time. Rates are a little lower with the 10 year nearing 3.60 this morning after reaching 3.75 just about a week ago. If recent form holds yields should mount a rally soon.

MLPS are pretty much news free on the corporate side this morning and no upgrades or downgrades to speak of.

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