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Tuesday, September 18, 2007

ITS ALL ABOUT THE FED...OR IS IT?
Okay it is. But this morning stock futures are strong as the ppi was very tame and Lehman Brothers earnings indicate the company isn't going out of business. Meanwhile MLPS are coming off an intraday reversal yesterday where they were closed near the lows of the day. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) was the culprit but none of this was news driven. So we look ahead to another morning where we have no news and no upgrades or downgrades.

And yes its the fed, the fed, the fed. Rick Santelli who btw i think is one of the smartest people cnbc has on the air points out this morning that we have 81 dollar oil and we're talking about a fed rate cut. Did we ever think we'd live to see the day that would happen. I'm betting on a cut of 25 on the fed funds, a cut of 50 on the discount rate, and friendly language. MLPS meanwhile are stretched near the bottom of their valuation levels with spreads over 3 points over treasury in some cases. So unless the fed surprises we are seeing nice cheap entry points here for the long term.

In the energy complex Crude is flat. Nat gas has turned a little lower this morning as it corrects its big move of the last week

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yesterday it was announced that mgg, mmp and line were added to the Reg.SHO list. So maybe,Joe, not only were(are)the hedges selling, they are selling shares they neither own nor have barrowed.
Might they be trying to depress prices so secondaries are lower valued and therefore the cos have a harder time growing.
V

Anonymous said...

please enlighten the rest of us...what is this list?

Anonymous said...

re the above, I thought I was paranoid. I now can give up the throne.Given the low volume of these stocks on the list I don't think they amount to more than a pimple on the ass to the hedge funds.btw,I agree about rick santelli,I think he's the only clear thinker on cnbc.

joewxman said...

there is no question that there were a few hedgefunds using MLPS against the dollar/yen carry trade. There may not be many doing it but one or two is enough in this low volume group.

Anonymous said...

To Anonymous, RE: Reg.SHO.list

http://www.nyse.com/regulation/
memberorganizations/
Threshold_Securities.shtml?date=20070918

"Rule 203(c)(6) of Regulation SHO defines a threshold security as any equity security of an issuer that is registered under Section 12, or that is required to file reports pursuant Section 15(d) of the Exchange Act where, for five consecutive settlement days: (1) there are aggregate fails to deliver at a registered clearing agency of 10,000 shares or more per security; (2) the level of fails is equal to at least one-half of one percent of the issuer's total shares outstanding; and (3) the security is included on a list published by an SRO. "