Today's 2:15 ish decision and statement will be moving all the charts you see below. Not much to say about them that hasn't been said so many times. The dow chart looks like a horror show thats about to go from bad to worse. The 10 year rate chart is clearly in breakout mode. The dollar chart looks like a bottom and feels like a bottom. The Oil chart (USO) is in la la land. And of course our MLP chart which continues to mozey along on a path to nowhere
Citigroup is on the horn this morning as it upgrades Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) to buy from hold. As i said a few days ago after the stock offering that the yield and price look attractive in here. Citigroup apparently agrees which may make you want to run for your lives. RBC leaves Global Partners (GLP) at market perform but lowers the price target.
Crude is down a little this morning while natural gas is down back with a 12 handle. Dollar a little higher ahead of the fed. I actually got up this morning at 4am and watch Jean Claude whats his name; head of the European Central Bank give his testimony before the meeting of the socialists. Rivetting testimony! How sad am i?
joseph cioffi's Source Page - Associated Content
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Highlights from the Citi upgrade on APL:
-Potential 2009 distribution of $4.20/unit.
-Raising the target from $49.00 to $52.00.
-should be able to grow distributions by ~6% annually for the next 4-5 years.
-APL is constructing ~180MMcf/d of new processing capacity.
Mr. Pipes
Congrats Joe, excellant call yesterday on your "island reversal". (unfortunetly-))
Raading Tee Leaves
Can someone on this blog please tell me under what circumstances MLP's actually go up?
I couldn't help but notice that a fair amount of this blog's fine readership loves to expound on the condition of the MLP market. The analysis usually consists of recycling old complaints about MLPs never performing well in the market. I compiled data with MLP Peak-to-Trough Performance since July 2007 through yesterday, along with the bounce that each MLP has experienced since its low. As you can see, there are a lot of MLPs that have rebounded strongly since their lows. In fact, the average rebound is 17% since the lows. We are in the process of a recovery, and if you've done some moderately smart bottom-picking, you probably have some profits to offset the bloodletting that took place during 2H 2007-1Q 2008. Here's some food for thought:
P-to-T % Rebound
USS -88% 0%
CLMT -78% 25%
CEP -68% 46%
GLP -59% 1%
CQP -57% 15%
TNH -57% 97%
BBEP -53% 29%
GEL -51% 7%
EROC -50% 26%
LINE -50% 35%
CPLP -49% 21%
EVEP -49% 32%
SGU -48% 6%
TOO -47% 1%
HPGP -46% 23%
DPM -46% 12%
ATN -46% 65%
ARLP -45% 82%
BWP -43% 14%
BGH -43% 5%
AHD -43% 30%
AHGP -41% 51%
PVG -41% 43%
NSH -40% 6%
STON -40% 4%
ENP -39% 62%
NGLS -39% 12%
LGCY -38% 29%
DEP -37% 1%
WPZ -37% 6%
OSP -36% 17%
NRP -35% 46%
HEP -34% 8%
KSP -33% 0%
EPE -33% 10%
ETE -33% 5%
PVR -32% 29%
NS -32% 4%
PAA -32% 9%
APL -32% 7%
ETP -31% 6%
MGG -30% 9%
NRGP -30% 0%
HLND -29% 17%
NMM -29% 6%
EXLP -29% 7%
NRGY -29% 2%
CPNO -29% 14%
MMLP -28% 9%
RGNC -28% 1%
SXL -28% 7%
TPP -27% 4%
XTXI -27% 20%
SEP -27% 6%
SPH -27% 11%
TLP -27% 6%
VNR -26% 20%
TGP -26% 1%
MMP -24% 4%
EEP -24% 17%
SGLP -24% 12%
XTEX -23% 2%
APU -23% 10%
TCLP -23% 14%
OKS -23% 6%
WMZ -22% 11%
KGS -22% 21%
BPL -21% 2%
MWE -21% 21%
FGP -20% 1%
KMP -20% 20%
QELP -20% 20%
EPB -17% 6%
EPD -16% 8%
PSE -14% 13%
WES -6% 7%
AVERAGE -35% 17%
Let's try to make the discourse something like a brainstorm rather than an MLPaholics Anonymous sobfest.
Great analysis, if you happened to buy the lows! Nobody is that gifted.
The point is that nobody gets the perfect low but hopefully if you bought in somewhat prudently you caught at least some of the upside - nobody is that gifted, I agree, but nobody (hopefully) is so impatient or bad at reading the market that they missed out on all of the 17% bounce!
I agree with bud heavy. We don't need cheerleaders, but we certainly don't need whiners either. MLP's are down slightly YTD in one of the toughest macroenvironments we've seen in years. If you're looking for extremely low volatility, the MLP space may no longer be the haven it used to be. Still outperforming the S&P though.
didn't get the island reversal yet. came down to the very bottom of the island and we've bounced up 2 dollars off that level.
The breaking point is to take out 106.75. The fed may determine this if the dollar rallies.
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