Friday, October 31, 2008
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) leads the winners list up 1 and change. News out at 12:57 on Marcellus Shale production which apparently going well. Buckeye (BPL) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) showing 1 point gains.
Both Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) are down nearly 3 points each on the payout cuts. Hiland (HLND) is down 2 but no news there and they are ex-distribution today. Fractional losses in Eagle Rock (EROC) Hiland Holdings (HPGP) Linn Energy (LINE) and Atlas Pipeline (APL).
Dow up 224 and MLPS up 1 and change now.
The question for me is the market reaction. How much of all this is already priced in? We saw what happened to Atlas Pipeline (APL) when Citigroup downgraded the other day on the idea of a distribution cut down the road. Before the cut Crosstex was yielding over 17% and the new yield is down around 13%. In normal credit market times we could say its priced in. So the reaction here could be a good lead indicator of how much distribution cuts are already priced into mlp prices.
Boardwalk Partners (BWP) has been in an uptrend off its lows and the company has gone to Loews Corp (not the home depot competitor...the other one) and getting money for stock. The company has done this before. Was it easier for Boardwalk to go back to the Loews well instead of the banks given credit market conditions?
Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list yet. Stock futures are lower this morning coming off a nice gain yesterday. Crude and energy is selling off as 60 dollars is the next wall. Interesting developement in that energy is having trouble moving higher with stock prices. We'll watch that closely. It's probably the stronger dollar which continues to gain.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Holly (HEP) Williams (WPZ) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) are the biggest losers today...all down fractions to a point.
Winners include Oneok (OKS) up 2. along with Buckeye (BPL). Energy Transfer (ETP) Enbridge (EEP) Natural Resource (NRP) EV Partners (EVEP) and Plains All American (PAA) up 1 and some change.
Atlas Holdings (AHD) is back over 10 dollars and Atlas Pipeline (APL) up a few pennies. Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) is holding up pretty well through all of this and is up 2 points from a few days ago. Atlas Holdings (AHD) does have a piece of ATN which might mitigate any issues from APL...off course this assumes a whole lot of negatives over the next 15 months in terms of the oil price as noted by Citigroup yesterday.
Dow up 150 right now...holding its own.
We are actually moving above the 34 day moving average which if it holds has potential bullish implications down the road...a very long road maybe but its something to pay attention to if we are beginning some sort of process of building a longer term bottom.
Nothing showing up in headlines this morning but last night E V Partners (EVEP) made it official as it upped its distribution to 75 cents. In the past the company has mentioned its intention for future quarters but no mention this time. Might mean something...might not.
Atlas Pipeline holders (APL,AHD) might still be reeling this morning from the Citigroup downgrade which btw somewhere here mentioned on the comments board in a broad context of a distribution cut. Would have saved a few points of pain if you sold on that post. Lets hope for a bounce today. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning. Crude is higher and so is nat gas ahead of nat gas numbers. Stock futures are sharply higher ahead of GDP which should show contraction and jobless claims which will probably soar over 500k. Yesterday the market sold off in the last 10 minutes on some weird comments from GE which were later straightened out. We were +200 before they hit the wire and stock futures take us back there this morning.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Atlas Holdings (AHD) finish a little off their lows on the Citigroup sell recommendation and a target price of 14. (Its just about there...might have been nice if they warned us at say...50...or 40...or 30! But they were telling us to buy the stock at that time.
Now here is the Yahoo profile
Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. and its subsidiaries engage in the transmission, gathering, and processing of natural gas. The company primarily provides natural gas gathering services in the Anadarko, Arkoma, Golden Trend, and Permian Basins in the southwestern and mid-continent United States and the Appalachian Basin in the eastern United States. It also offers natural gas processing services in Oklahoma and Texas, as well as provides interstate gas transmission services in southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southeastern Missouri. Atlas Pipeline Partners owns and operates a 565-mile interstate pipeline system that extends from southeastern Oklahoma through Arkansas and into southeastern Missouri; 7,870 miles of active natural gas gathering systems located in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas; and 1,600 miles of active natural gas gathering systems located in eastern Ohio, western New York, and western Pennsylvania. Atlas Pipeline Partners GP, LLC serves as the general partner of the company. Atlas Pipeline Partners was founded in 1999 and is based in Moon Township, Pennsylvania.
No where in here do is see any mention of crude oil exposure unless he means the the drop in crude will keep nat gas prices low. Anyone have light on this can please share it. It would be appreciated.
MLPS approaching the 220 level up 7 and some change. Thats where they got turned around the last time.
Magellan (MMP) is up 3. Natural Resource (NRP) Energy Transfer (ETP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Hiland (HLND) Copano (CPNO) Oneok (OKS) all up 2 or more.
I know a lot of you were complaining about the rally (or lack there of ) in MLPS yesterday but i would expect it play catch up today. This has happened many times lately. And there are no negative drivers today so we'll take it through the open and then wait for the oil numbers and then the fed. Crude is playing catch up this morning up 4 dollars. Nat gas and gasoline are higher as well. They did not rally yesterday with the market. Stock futures are well off their lows and are basically flat this morning.
Exterran Partners (EXLP) boosted its distribution last night by 4 cents. Buckeye Partners (BPL) put up earnings last night and another distribution increase. No other news and no upgrades or downgrades so far.
There are some end of year pension fund and mutual fund distortions going on which may be playing into why some mlps moved up yesterday and some did not. Markwest (MWE) and Atlas Pipeline (APL) among others have been under some pressure lately and that pressure did not come off yesterday. No news headlines driving this that i could tell.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Lots of numbers this morning starting with Holly Partners (HEP) posting earnings. Teppco (TPP) also puts up numbers and speaks to next years projects and capital availability. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) put up earnings last night. Buckeye Partners (BPL) should be posting at any moment.
We have Steifel Nicholas coming out on Copano (CPNO) with a buy recommendation. Stock has a bid at 20 in the premarket. Also bidding higher is Boardwalk (BWP) where Deutche Bank is telling us we should buy that one as well.
Now to the dead cats as we have a rally this morning which undoes the 200 point decline in the last 15 minutes of trading yesterday. I'm continuing to argue on the side of a tradeable bottom at 7880 so ideally we'll take a trip down there this morning at some point...probe...and then reverse. (They should only listen to me)
MLPs will follow along. The libor rate continues to come in and that continues to provide support as 200 is holding here. At least we are diverging from the broader market.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Dow sold off 200 points in the last 20 minutes. We've only had 4 up days this month. Look like a trip below 8000 seems inevitable...but maybe we're setting up for the final collapse.
Martin Midstream is a 1.40 winner. Otherwise some fractional gains in Alliance Resource (ARLP) Buckeye (BPL) Calumet (CLMT) Penn Virginia Resource (PVR) and a couple of others.
Legacy (LGCY and Markwest (MWE) Boardwalk (BWP) and Atlas Resource (ATN) are down 1 or so each among the bigger losers.
Market has a feel like its trying to put in some sort of floor for a tradable rally.
.....YET!
The climax awaits!
Friday looked like we are going straight to the abyss and we managed to avoid it. Now we have another sharply down open which will take us to the lows of 2 weeks ago rather quickly so we are getting that retest this morning. I continue to hope we can have that one big mega-flush and if it comes i'll be waiting. For those of you buying into this, in my view, one should ladder orders and even put in a few "silly" bids, say 5 points or more below the market...and see if you get lucky.
Some earnings out this morning as Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) puts up numbers and affirms guidance. The company calls its results "solid" which probably won't mean much in this mess. On the other hand note that while the broad market has moved back to its lows MLPS remain solidly above those lows. Now it could be due to the thawing in the credit markets however small or it could be due to the fact that ex-distribuion dates are rapidly approaching so a big distribution is going to be paid..supporting prices at least until the ex-distribution date. Earnings out this morning also from Boardwalk Partners (BWP) which look okay on the surface. But as a sign of the times note this quote.To date the expansion projects have been financed with a combination of equity and debt issuances, borrowings under the Partnership’s $1.0 billion revolving credit facility and cash from operations. In October 2008, the Partnership borrowed the remaining available capacity under the revolving credit facility, which increased total borrowings to $958 million, reflecting the failure of a Lehman Brothers’ affiliate to fund its portion of those borrowings. In addition, to complete the expansion projects, it is anticipated that as much as $1.0 billion in additional equity will be required and that these funds will be raised by issuing limited partnership units. In light of the ongoing turmoil in the capital markets, the Partnership’s largest unitholder, Loews Corporation, has advised the Partnership that it is willing to provide the required equity capital if external funds are not available on acceptable terms.
I wonder if these companies would even be able to do an offering of units in this mess. There hasn't been an ipo done in many weeks. Who is going to want to take units. So it pays to have a sugar daddy!
Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list Crude touched 59 bucks overnight and remain under pressure. Stock futures as we said earlier are sharply lower but at least its not limit down. Get set for another rocky day. And remember...if you have to or want to buy in this enviornment its best to ladder your way in.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Losers of 1 and 2 points not uncommon in the likes of Oneok (OKS) Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Nustar (NS) and some others.
I don't know...its down but not disastrous.
Hiland LP and GP (HLND,HPGP) announce distribution hikes. And we have a distribution announcement from Marin Midstream (MMLP).
Thursday, October 23, 2008
The more i think about it the more it looks like another hedge fund did an mlp unwind today. Could be the reason why there are bids around above the ny close in after hours.
Magellan Midstream and Magellan Holdings raises the distribution again. They like the 1/4 cent there at Magellan.
Noticing some MLPS catching bids above the 4pm close in after hours. If this is a typical reversal pattern we will play catch up tomorrow. Also Buckeye Holdings (BGH) traded above the 17 dollar tender offer in afterhours. Its one 2800 share trade and it could be the greater fool theory...we'll see.
Hiland LP (HLND) is up 2 as is Inergy Holdings (NRGP). 1 point winners include Natural Resource Partners (NRP) Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) and Alliance Resource (ARLP).
Nustar (NS) has come back to the flat line after being down 1 and some change as earnings news gets digested. Enterprise (EPD) is up on its earnings by 50 cents. And Markwest (MWE) is up even though they said there would be some impact on DCF given market conditions.
Stock futures selling off to the lows of the day after jobless claims. It could get ugly!
MLPs have on the other hand not revisited the panic lows...not even close to that 152 bottom from 2 weeks ago (was it two weeks ago? Its all meshing into one long day) and we seem to be trading a bit better in here. I think as long as credit spreads continue to thaw...we will see relative outperformance.
News items this morning as Energy Products Partners (EPD) puts up earnings which have some hurricane impact. Duncan (DEP) also has earnings that are a penny shy of estimates but that seldom has any weight in our little group. And file this under 1/2 a penny is better than none...Suburban Propane (SPH) boosts its distribution by half a cent. Nustar (NS) which already preannounced record numbers will be posting this morning at some point. Goldman is raising Buckeye Partners (BPL) to neutral from sell..and it downgrades Buckeye Holdings (BGH) to neutral. Buckeye Holdings has a $17 offer on the table.
Crude was up earlier and is now flat. Stock futures as we psoted earlier are lower but off the lows and way off the highs. Gold is nearing 700 bucks as we just continue to see assets deflate. Jobless claims at 8:30 am will set the tone.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Some news today with a big distribution boost for Markwest Energy (MWE)holders. Also we have a distribution boost for Plains All American (PAA) and Boardwalk Partners (BWP). So at least the news continues to be good from MLP land.
Buckeye Holdings as a 17 dollar offer on the table and management will be meeting to figure it out. These days a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush. Somebody sees value at these prices and that is a small sign of hope.
The mlp index was down over 5 points today but this was the kind of day 2 weeks ago that would have been down 15 or 20 points or more so i consider it a victory. The thawing out in the credit markets is helping here while the overall market is now shifting focus toward the deep recession it sees going foward. We live from day to day here and tomorrow might bring an entirely different outcome. But for now...I can't say i'm too unhappy with today's action.
Buckeye Holdings up over 2 dollars on the tender offer. Most mlps are lower with some 1 to 2 point losses in Martin Midstream (MMLP) Natural Resource (NRP) Nustar (NS) Oneok (OKS) Holly Partners (HEP) and some others. Crude taking a 4 dollar hit right now before inventory numbers.
News on this came after the close yesterday as Buckeye GP Holdings LLC wants to buy back the public stake at 17 dollars which is about 30% above yesterday's close but as you can see its way below the peak prices of the bull run. In fact this price is almost back to the IPO price of a few years ago.
If you bought this at the bear market low 2 weeks ago...rejoice! If you are a holder from much higher prices...maybe some gnashing of teeth is in order.
The rally in mlps stalled out for now at 220 and we pulled back less than 2 points yesterday while the dow dropped over 2%. And futures this morning are selling off along with the entire energy complex. Crude is down over 2 dollars and under 69 bucks. Gasoline @ 2.99 here in the peoples republic of the state of NY.
Not much happening otherwise on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. The credit markets continue to heal slowly which i think is bullish for mlps as we see these ridiculous yield spreads slowly begin to tighten. We will continue to see mlps outperform broad stocks and big energy stocks in my view as long as the credit markets continue to improve. And remember when i say outperform it only means that we will be down less if markets tank.
Belmont Park's pick 6 today has a carryover of over 1 million dollars so i plan to head there later today to try to relieve them of their burden. Post time for the first race is 1pm.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
This is a Morningstar piece on MLPS...hat tip to lee for it and i hope Morningstar doesn't mind that its on my blog.
One thing we have to start watching for is relative outperformance. If the market is planning to sell off to retest that Dow low at 7880, we need to see strong resistence to that selling. So now we watch and the clock ticks.
The mlp index is down about 3 points as the down touches 9000 and its down 250 right now. There are some winners today. Natural Resourec Partners (NRP) is up 1.50. Also up 1 and change is Linn Energy (LINE) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up a little more than 1 point. And we have fractional gains in Inergy (NRGY) Hiland (HLND) Calumet (CLMT) Buckeye (BPL) and DCP Midstream (DPM). Some of this is catch up from yesterday.
Kinder Morgan (KMP) is the drag on the mlp index and its down a little over 1 point. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is down 1 after being up over 5 yesterday. Others showing fractional losses but nothing catastrophic.
Maybe the end of that unwind is why we are up nicely for 5 of the last 6 days. From the 152 intraday low to yesterday's close we are up 70 mlp index points or almost 50%! And many mlps have doubled off their crash lows like Holly Partners (HEP) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) among others.
Buyers have control here but given the volitility and that we continue to be in the land of big numbers large swings are likely to continue in here so keep the dramamine handy.
Goldman Sachs is cutting Holly Partners (HEP) from buy to hold probably because of the 100% price move from 2 weeks ago. Stock futures are a little weaker this morning after yesterday's 400 point dow gain. Crude is down a dollar this morning. Nat gas is up a few cents. Credit spreads continue to come in which is bullish for mlps as credit markets slowly thaw out.
Monday, October 20, 2008
One thing about volitility is yeah they are down big but they are also up big. Still a long way to go but better than where we were 2 weeks ago.
Kinder Morgan (KMR) is up 3 and Oneok (OKS) up nearly 3 are the midday leaders. 2 point plus signs in Holly (HEP)Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Plains All American (PAA) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Buckeye (BPL) and Enbridge Energy (EEP). Crosstex Energy (XTEX) is up nearly 2 points and thats a big percentage gain there.
Losers are few and not showing much downside. Looks like we make try and take 'em higher this afternoon as volitility comes in a bit.
The dow chart is also indicating that we can have some upside this week again within the context of a bounce. The moving averages are sitting just above 10k and decending at a fairly rapid rate. Still we have headroom to work with.
We will begin to see earnings and additional distribution announcements coming this week but nothing on the board this morning. Nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list but it is early. The energy complex is up as it continues to move with the stock market; stock futures are higher this morning.
Finally...Cody was cold this morning and i had the blanket!
Friday, October 17, 2008
8 point winner today on the MLP index which was off the highs. Market sold off in the last hour as the volitility continues to be nothing short of spectacular. Still i thought there was a better feel to the tape for the most part. Now the question is will we need to go back down and retest that 7880 intraday low?
Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD) continues to sink and is under 12 dollars. No news here but the action is not good with everything else in the group rallying. OOPS....it has just turned higher by a nickel.
Coal mlps showing the way higher with Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Natural Resource (NRP) both up over 1. Also seeing 1 point gains in Oneok (OKS), Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) , Trans Montaigne (TLP) and Williams (WPZ).
400 UP...700 DOWN...1000 PT daily ranges. Its the new normal. And MLPS doing the same sort of thing albeit in a more dignified lagging sort of way. There are some encouraging technical signs showing up these last few days (i know its hard to imagine) but we have higher lows, increasing volume coming in on these rallies. Its a start at least.
Copano (CPNO) raises the distribution by a penny which is less than what they've done in the past blaming hurricane IKE issues. The company which has always had a high coverage ratio says the coverage ratio due to IKE is lower than what they would like;but they also hint that this is a one time thing. I don't know if this has any impact since the market seems to be the primary driver anyway.
Atlas Energy Resources is announcing their hedging positions. Looks like they are hedged at 9.00 nat gas for 2009. We have a 6 handle right now.
Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Oil is a little higher and so is nat gas. Another day...another wild ride.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is up 2 on its distribution boost. Holly Partners (HEP) is up 1 and changed and has almost doubled off its panic low last week under 15. Got over 29 earlier today. Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are fractional winners along with Kinder Morgan (KMP).
I went long the Double Long Oil and Gas (DIG) which is only 100 points off its high.
We are getting pulled back and forth in this horror show and yesterday's huge loss is not seeing followthrough this morning. Futures were very weak overnight but they have been strengthening slowly all morning. So maybe the market wants to go up this morning.
MLPS yesterday took a hit of 12 points but it was big energy that crashed with a nearly 15% one day decline. Still we held up a little better than everything else and if the market bounces today...so will we.!
No corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. The energy complex was down with stocks overnight but since they are linked at the hip these days crude has come back to the a less than 1 point loss. So bring on the open.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
This guy on CNBC likes MLPS. I wish CNBC would let us bloggers embed video into our post. I would link to them more often if they did.
Meanwhile the dow rallied from Friday's intraday low around 7800ish to almost 9800 yesterday. That was over a 20% move in less than 3 trading sessions. We've had years that weren't as good as those 72 hours. Now we've given back almost all of Monday's gain and we could be down to last Friday's low in as little as another down session. And we've had a crash today in big energy stocks as the Dow Jones Oil and Gas Index was down 16% today. That index was @ 775.83 back last May and its down nearly 400 points.
And yet as someone pointed out on the comments board earlier today we are so jaded that the market drops 700 points and no one bats an eye. CNBC anchors on Power Lunch today made the same observation.
My doctor today who has no investment knowledge (he's been in cash since late last year so ignorance here is absolute bliss!) told me today he's going to put some money in the Prudent Bear Fund. Sign of a bottom? S&P down over 40% in the last 12 months.
God knows what awaits us tomorrow. Today was nothing short of absolute liquidation. Who knows how long it lasts.
Plains All American(PAA) Oneok (OKS) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are down 3 points or more and are the biggest losers.
We've just broken through the lows of the day as we head into the close on both the dow and the mlp index.
Not much fun blogging during all this bloodshed.
Not a pretty picture this morning in futures as they continue to weaken ahead of some important numbers this morning. S&P down 15 points. Still i like down opens better than up ones in the current enviornment. Crude Oil is down to 75 dollars off almost 3 bucks with gasoline @ 1.80 as we head to a 2 handle at the pump. Yesterday the market traded in a 700 point range and look for another potential wild day.
Amerigas is hosting an anal-ist day and is announcing 2009 guidance. I'm not sure what this means since i don't have anything to compare it to. And i'm not sure what it means given the market since the news could be good and the stock could go down or the opposite is possible.
Merrill Lynch is upgrading Capital Products Partners (CPLP) to a buy which should put a bid underneath this stock. Not much else going on this morning. So we wait 8:30 PPI and retail sales which potentially could be a negative number. Fasten your seatbelts for another day on the roller coaster.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Looks like the dow opens up 350. Where we go from there is anyone's guess but they like the government plan to buy perferred shares in banks among other things.
And as expected MLPS bounced very hard yesterday up over 300 points and we should move above the 200 level. What stands out to me yesterday is that you had these mega moves of 4, 5 and 6 points in prices and that still leaves us so far below what anyone would consider normal yield levels. To say we have a long way to go is an understatement.
No headlines in MLP land. Friedman Billings is downgrading Legacy Partners (LGCY) to market perform from outperform. Second downgrade this week after Goldman cut it yesterday. Energy is up. Interest rates are up which is a good thing. Now we wait to see if we can put 2 back to back 90% up days.
Monday, October 13, 2008
You gather my tone isn't exactly a happy one and this is because this bounce is long overdue and not a surprise considering the huge losses since September 1st and particulary since October 1st. I expect your accounts are all up huge today. But skepticism abounds.
Did you think it was Columbus Day. No. Today is the day dead cats bounce off the pavement after last week's drop off the Empire State Building. An absolutely fabulous chart below illistrates a drop of over 60% from the top last August. Its a long long way to 200 let alone 342 but the bounce here will be sharp and fast. 20 or 30 mlp points not out of the question.
A few things will provide tailwinds today. We have a Barrons piece this weekend touting MLPS. We have the overall market rallying sharply and in bounce mode. And we have Goldman stepping up and upgrading Kinder Morgan (KMP) Magellan (MMP) and Enterprise (EPD) to buy from neutral. All are bidding up in the pre-market with Kinder bid up 2 dollars. They are also cutting Regency (RGNC) and Quicksilver Gas ((KGS) to neutral from buy. Friedmann Billings is cutting Legacy (LGCY) to neutral from buy. Cuts to neutral make so much sense here after the stocks have been cut in half.
No other corporate headlines this morning. MLPS have been all either announcing distribution increases or pre-announcing that they intend to raise their distributions in the next 2 weeks. So we know for the most part everything is okay for mlps this quarter. Crude is up as it continues to trade with the stock market; up 3 dollars and back over 80. Nat gas is also up about 12 cents. The dollar is down against the Euro but up against the yen as confidence returns to equities for at least the next couple of hours.
Credit markets are closed for the holiday today so we don't know what the reaction will be to all the action taken by governments this weekend both here and abroad. Lots of stories available on the Wall Street Journal web site. Some free, some not so check it out. Corporate headlines as they break this morning.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Regular reader and occasional poster "lou" suggested this video as we close a week which i think was more like staying at this bed and breakfast. (squemish should be careful!)
And of course you might disagree but lets not have an argument!
After the week we've had i think we should all have a good weekend.
A few more MLPS have pre-announced distribution increases as Inergy LP (NRGY) hikes by a penny to 63.5 cents or 2.54 annual on a 13 dollar stock. 20% yield gives you the stock for free in 3 1/2 years. Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) hike their distributions and say they are okay through 2009. PVG traded down to 8.78 this morning. Inergy posts its outlook for 2009 assuming there is a world left by then.
Dow is down almost 500 points as we head into the last 2 hours of trading.
The rolling crash continues this morning and after markets worldwide collapsed last night. And stock futures here are down but off the lows. Actually the dow futures overnight were down 300 points...as of this post down 170. All kinds of rumours out there on what might happen. President speaking at 10:30am.
Linn Energy (LINE) announces a 100 million dollar unit buyback so we're talking something on the order of 5-10 million units being purchased depending on price. It also is selling land in Woodford Shale for 229 million. The buyback can't hurt if someone out there case or if prices ever stop dropping.
It was good to see more MLPS coming out with distribution hike news early. It probably was key to limiting losses yesterday to just 8 points (4+%) as compared to the rest of the market and that disaster in big energy stocks. But there is still a rather lengthy list of mlps that have remained silent. Its time to speak up.
No other news so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. You have markets open but banks closed Monday for Columbus Day. You have a G-7 meeting this weekend. Not that any of that matters. Confidence is so shattered right now. We may need JP Morgan himself to come back from the grave and buy something because nothing has worked. Lets try the hereafter!
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Futures remain sharply lower as Asia is getting torn apart with 5 to 10% declines.
Here is the good news. At the current rate the dow jones industrials will be at zero in 15 trading days. And at that point it will be a buy!
Hey kids, at least we'll get distribution checks a month from now!
Yesterday we saw MLPS collapse and crash in a breathtaking 15% decline in the first hour and a half of trading. Remember these are not tech stocks. It used to take 2 years to see a move of that magnitude. Then Kinder Morgan which was down 7 dollars at one point came out and said they plan to increase their distribtuion to 1.02 from 99 cents and that began an equally breathtaking turnaround. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) then followed by actually annoucing a distribution increase about 2 weeks earlier than normal. The buying spread out to other issues and by 3pm the mlp index actually turned higher by almost 2 points or an almost 20% move from the low of the day. Given the historic conditions we are experiencing we unit holders need to know whats going on. So you CEO's, CFO's and Investor Relations people out there; It is time to speak. You owe it to your unit holders to say something about current market conditions and the impact on your companies. Many MLPS have seen haircuts of 20,30 even 40% in some cases since Monday! We all understand these are extreme conditions and there are many things going on that have nothing to do with your day to day operations. The great Lehman unwind continues for example. Hedge funds that own MLPS are selling into a vacuum. Speak to us about the distribution. Tell us if you are seeing any impact from the frozen credit markets. Tell us about the quarter or future quarters if you are not in quiet periods. But for God sake's say something!
Some dizzying yields out there this morning. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is priced to yield 19.50%. Now think about what that means. Assuming the distribution doesn't increase over the next 4 years. At this price the distributions pay for the stock in less than 4 years. So in four years your cost basis is zero. Some other yields out there.
Kinder Morgan...9.5%......7.5 years
Oneok............ 10.0 %..........7.2 years.
Nustar....11.4%...........6 years
Buckeye..11.5%....6 years
EV Partners..20%....3.6 years.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Dear CEO's CFO's I.R, of MLPS,
I know many of you read this blog and for that i am extremely flattered. At this point it might be a good idea to give your investors and the market some clues about guidance and distributions. Your stocks have been give a 50% hair cut...in some cases its come since last Wednesday. Maybe a clue about your access to credit markets might be helpful as well.
Just a suggestion...follow Kinder Morgans lead.
Down 15% in about 2 hours of trading. The index has now down more than 60% off its highs and its down nearly 33% just since September 1st. Down 25 points to 152. Cheniere Energy Partners(CQP)is up 42 cents for some unknown reason but that is it.
Now for horror. Enbridge Energy Partners(EEP) is down 7. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is down 6 and change.Amerigas (APU) Oneok (OKS) Buckeye (BPL) and Sunoco Logisitics (SXL) are down 5. Nustar(NS) Plains All American (PAA) Energy Transfer (ETP) Magellan (MMP) Suburban Propane (SPH) and Hiland Partners (HLND) are down 4. And on and on and on.
Some note worthy prices. Crosstex Energy (XTEX) is under 10 dollars. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) has fallen from 21 to 9 in 5 trading days. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) is under 10 dollars. The GPS have been massacred. Some mlps have seen already depressed prices cut in half in the last few days. Note also that there are some volume spikes in Kinder Morgan,Enterprise and a few others today which indicates perhaps more hedge fund unwinding and they are doing so with no buyers in the market place at all. At face value the move to me is discounting distribution cuts. Are we going to get the hikes or will we begin to see companies hold back on distribution hikes in order to save cash.
Since i started this post we've gone from minus 25 to minus 22 on the mlp index. The overall market is desperately trying to rally and there is still time to mount a violent comeback this afternoon.
The cry for a global coordinated rate cut was loud and clear. A 50 basis point rate cut was announced at 7am by the US, Canada, Europe, and others. The market reaction was interesting as S&P futures went from -28 to +30 on the announcement...then they sold down to only +5 and now we are slowly building back to +18 as of this early post. So there are skeptics out there which is good. Kids if this can't give us at least a one day bounce then we should just hang it up.
MLPS are going to move with the markets so look for them to open higher. Beyond that its anyone's guess. The energy complex which has been moving in line with the markets are down this morning but off the lows. Gasoline futures were trading with a 1 handle for the first time in what seems since the reign of Nero! I would love to play this potential rally today but the market has sucked my cash down the drain along with everyone elses. No corporate developements and nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list.
Frankly i think today has the potential to be the scariest day yet; if the markets fail to rally on this rate cut then as i said earlier...it may very well be over. But on the otherhand maybe its that feeling in and of itself that will bring the buyers back in.
The clock is ticking!
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Save me a spot on the soup lines! I think we need new leadership. And here is who i recommend!
Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is @10 bid down nearly 4. And Hiland Partners(HLND) is down nearly 4 2o 22 and change. No news but trading like its going out of business. When you watch the trading there are no buyers and it takes a small amount of volume to move some of these down 2 points. Problem is there aren't many points left!
At this stage of the game. You are almost better off taking lottery tickets on Semagroup LP (SGLP) and US Shipping (USS). Provided they don't disappear altogether there are not many ticks left here. And Michael Dell continues to buy up shares of SGLP.
Nustar (NS) down nearly 3 as the biggest losers but some GPs are down to give-away prices. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is down nearly 50% in 3 days. Honest to God if somebody told me a year ago we'd be down here i would have said...the only way we get there is if the entire financial system melts down. Glory!
A few winners on the list like Oneok (OKS) which is up 1. Alliance Resource(AHGP)Natural Resource (NRP) Boardwalk (BWP) and Amerigas (APU) among the fractional winners.
Lots of nervousness around today. I'm actually kind of glad we're not seeing a big rally right off the bat as it would be just another rally to sell into.
An astounding move really in the last five weeks. 95 points or 33% in mind boggling speed. 8 point one day down moves on no news. Historical times we are seeing here kids.
Some pre open bids showing up so it appears we are setting up for some sort of rebound. Stock futures are mixed this morning but we have energy prices rebounding . No corporate developements. No upgrades or downgrades. I suspect that if markets rally today on rate cuts or rate cut hopes,we should be able to get back 1/2 of yesterday's losses.
Btw i stand corrected as i went back to the long term chart and yesterday took us back down to early 2004 levels and not 2000 that i posted. Its still miserable either way.
Monday, October 06, 2008
The corporate bond market has come to a complete standstill today. No trades. Everyone wants protection and no one can get it.
Last hour coming up...prepare for a crash.
As i post the dow is approaching a 600 point loss. Up down volume at unheard of extremes...250 to 1 ratio. 1 stock on the new high list. (Wrigley!).
We start Monday morning in the black hole. Markets imploding Friday afternoon have set us up for a potentially disastrous Monday. The dow is headed for a 9 handle and the S&P 500 contnues its decent into hell.
Watch volume in this sell off which might be setting up for another one of those powerful reversals at some point; perhaps tomorrow. If we fall below 10k on the dow it will probably set off panic. Crude is down 4 dollars and under 90 bucks. Gasoline is headed for 2 dollars in the futures. A 2 handle on gasoline! And no one will have money to afford it. MLPS go along for the ride of course. I think 190 on the mlp index brings us back to the first breakout back in late 2000-2001. 6 years of upside will have been completely undone. And given the current market conditions is it possible that some MLPS might pass on distribution increases this quarter in order to preserve some capital? Yield spreads are headed to 1000 bps or more in many cases.
No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades so far.
The market in my view is making a transition to the reality of a deep recession. And that means asset prices will continue to deflate.
Friday, October 03, 2008
That's the way it feels this morning out there. Dead cat bounce at the open for the overall market and we await the vote on the bailout package. Frankly speaking I think the dragging out of this legislative event has made things worse and my expectation is that the market will roll over and sell off after a rally off the news..assuming it passes. And if it fails then the DOW will have a 9 handle and MLPs will follow as the MLP index hurdles to the 190 level...which would take it back to a level not seen since early in the decade.
Cramer gave a nod to a few mlps last night and they open higher this morning like Linn (LINE), Kinder Morgan (KMP), and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). The index is up 2 points and back over 220. Dow up 100 at this moment. Crude is down this morning. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list and no corporate developements.
Thursday, October 02, 2008
MLPs closed down 10 points to 218. Maybe we'll get a dead cat bounce from the passage of the deal. If it goes down again...get ready for a crash.
Take at look at Exterran Partners (EXLP) which is up 50 cents today as one of the few winners and take a look at Exterran Holdings (EXH) which is down from 70 to 26. Unbelieveable. And even more unbelieveable is the plowing under AG shares are getting today . Potash (POT) has gone from 220 to 95!
Dow just ticked dow to minus 299.
Not many winners this morning and most of those are up just small fractions or unchanged.
I don't know. I put it out there. I observe...you decide! Still we didn't go below 220 the other day and we had every chance to. If this is all about the seizure of credit is the action pointing to perhaps the beginning of the end of the crisis part of the crisis?
No news of consequence this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. The market has just opened down about 75 points on the dow. The mlp index is down a little less than 1 point as they open them up for trading and work out the first trade distortions that occur. Nat gas is up this morning while crude is down. The one month t-bill is yielding 0.62% and the 3 month at 0.82%. Conditions remain very tight but off the extreme lows in yields.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Outside of the Crosstex pain Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) Holly Partners (HEP) and Hiland (HLND) are all down 1 to 2 points among the losers. Magellan (MMP) Oneok (OKS) and Nustar (NS) continue to lead the winners list up 1 to 1.50.
Its the market dog wagging the mlp tail but being higher is always a good thing.