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Thursday, June 11, 2009

SIDEWAYS AND QUIET FOR NOW



The mlp index has moved into another one of these sideways consolidation modes and with rising moving averages we continue to view the action as bullish. What has been particularly interesting is the number of companies coming to market selling equity and then within a week or two after the offering the prices of those mlps are higher than the offering price. This is actually a reversion back to normal trading behavior; the type we saw during bullish runs in 2006 and 2007. No arguements. The trend is our friend. Meanwhile speaking of offerings another one hit the tape late yesterday. EV Partners (EVEP) is doing a stock offering and they are also purchasing some assets and doing some more hedges. Stock is down a buck and a half in the pre-market.

19 to 1. That is the relationship now between crude and natural gas. The normal relationship between the 2 long term is...are you ready for this...8! So if we ever revert to the mean here the nat gas price can easily double or more. Somebody please tell that to the natgas traders please! It is beyond ridiculous but i continue to view nat gas as a good low risk buy in here. One of these days its going to rally and rally hard.

Not much else happening this morning. No other corporate headlines and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Crude is higher this morning along with nat gas, Stock futures are higher and today's trading waits for the final leg of the 3 day bond auction. Many years ago when auctions mattered in another era i seem to recall that the middle auction almost always went badly while the final leg usually went okay and then followed by a sigh of relief rally. It didn't always play out this way but it did so enough of the time. Note btw that the 10 year/mlp yield spread is shrinking from both ends here as rates rise and mlp prices rise. For now rising yields have not had any negative mpact on mlps and i suspect that for now its not a big concern.

2 comments:

SHK said...

Joe:

We may or may not be through the worst of the credit crisis. Whether we are or not, a look back reveals that MLPs were a pretty decent place to be with respect to the income they generate. Most MLP have maintained their distibutions and some have even increased them.

Contrast this with the financials, most of which have greatly reduced or eliminated their dividends.

I find myself wondering just where income-oriented investors are going to go in the next year or two. The prospects for financials restoring their dividends are not very good. I have to believe that serious investors will have little choice but to at least consider MLPs for income. If so, that will help us over the next few years.

steve

Anonymous said...

SHK,

I don't think we are anywhere near the end of the credit crises and compounding the problem is staggering unemployment and looming hyper-inflation.

I agree that MLPs have performed well this year and should look attractive to yield-starved investors, but after last year's white-knuckle ride, I'm under no illusions about their stability.

Still, as you suggested, where are investors going to get income? With the likes of GM dead, clearly "safety" is relative and increasingly abstract.

We are living in very intertesting times...

Lee

P.S. Buy TBT!