Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Last week i posted about using FAS as a way of taking advantage of triple leverage. What i missed was FAS was triple financials. Now as it happens the trade worked for me as i laddered in from 35 (started way too early) down to 12. I had an average price of 20 when it was all done and sold this morning pre-open at 25. I would have stayed away from financials but sometimes luck shines your way. Also hedged by selling call options and bought them back yesterday thanks to great executions and spreads wide enough to drive a mack truck through. Glory!
Large cap triple's symbol is BGU which is the better non financial...or at least less financial...and you get 3 times the move. Also DDM which is double dow industrials as another way to play upside in case we get left behind in mlp land. This story has a list of the available triple leveraged etns. Also story this morning on leveraged etfs starting for commodities and currencies and next week we will see gold and silver arrive. Food for thought.
Stock futures were down...then up 10 on the S&P and now selling again ahead of GDP which leads me to believe that....whoops now up 10 again on the S&P ahead of numbers...so it looks to me like we have a chance here to break the 3 day rally curse. And of course MLPS will follow suit. Breaking news as the fed is taking action buying up loans and the market cheers!
Morgan Keegan downgrades Kinder Morgan (KMP), one of the few mlps to hold up in this mess. The company last night gave guidance on 2009 distributions which was positive. I imagine that if the market is in rally mode that the downgrade may not make any difference. No other headlines this morning. Energy is a little lower this morning after yesterday's big gains.
Two days until we give thanks kids...lets keep things in perspective!
Monday, November 24, 2008
We need to get back over 200 on the MLP index on this bear market rally just to calm us all down.
Noticed some dorm 4 filings showing insider buys at DCP Midstream (DPM), Hiland Partners (HLND) Hiland Holdings (HPGP) among others. Of course these days its like buy call options;they are priced like call options!
Quiet on the corporate new front for MLPS. Nothing significant. Buckeye Partners(BPL) is up 5.88 as the biggest gainer today. 2 to 3 point plusses in Nustar(NS) Kinder Morgan(KMP) Oneok(OKS) Energy Transfer (ETP) and a few others.
Morgan Keegan downgrades Hiland (HLND) today. The market has already done that!
We are in a holiday shortened trading week which is ncie because we have one less day to go down.
But things are looking up this morning as we are adding to gains from Friday's late reversal. And we have crude up and a firm energy complex with stronger equity and Nigerian explosions or something. And the government has rescued Citigroup over the weekend which seems to be viewed with a positive spin...at least for now.
No corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. We are certainly entitled to a big rally in MLPS and when that rally comes is anyone's guess. We'll probably see some catch up this morning from Friday's late turn. We'll see if it holds.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Makes you wonder whether we'll be around for much longer. But at least i bought USSPZ at 6 cents yesterday and its holding 18 cents! Glory!
Market continues to swing on citigroups every tick. Big Energy and basic material stocks are rallying today which is probably holding up the averages
And this has the whole market in turmoil again. Up 160..then down 100...right now up 60. Last time the VIX hit 80 it was a buy opportunity for one of those 20% bull markets that last about 6 or 7 trading hours.
MLPS were up early and now holding onto 150 by the skin of their teeth...down 3 plus points on the day. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) is down 4 at 11 after getting their tender offer pulled. You should have taken 17.50! Nustar (NS) is down almost 3 dollars. Williams (WPZ) Holly Partners (HEP) Atlas Pipeline (APL) Buckeye (BPL) Amerigas (APU) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) down between 1 and 2 points.
Winners right now are few. Kinder Morgan (KMP) Oneok (OKS) Excrement (Exterran )(EXLP) Natural Resource (NRP) and a few others up fractions to 1 point.
The market is trading tick for tick with citigroup...rumors of the fed cutting rates to zero....and other stuff floating around. You get the feeling watching Citigroup that somebody thinks it won't be around come Monday morning. Lets hope that it is around!
File this under "just for laughs" but i bought 14000 shares of US Shipping yesterday at 6 cents. Its now at 18 cents!!!! So you see you can buy an mlp and actually have it rise in value or even triple!!! (sarcasm is lovely isn't it!)
I kept having one thought with regard to this 17.50 tender offer that was on the table for Buckeye Holdings (BGH). What happens in this current market if the offer is pulled? Well we are about to find out. I have no position in BGH but i have bought it and sold it a few times in trades back in a time when making money was actually occuring from time to time. If i were a unit holder today i would have gladly taken the 17.50. But the offer was pulled as a result of the board rejection the raised 17.50 tender offer. Right now BGH is 10 bid 15 ask so it will open lower.
MLPS are bid higher this morning as the overall market is dead cat bouncing after yesterday. Could be another one of those jaw dropping one day short covering rallies today...or it could be an up open that will be sold into with both hands. Who knows. Its a brave new world out there.
No other headlines so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades not that they matter much these days. Hindsight tells us the anal-ists should have put sells on mlps months ago. Crude a little higher this morning after cracking 50. My brother in law who trades the pits suggests that if 48 goes on oil...he would look for it to trade down to 30 dollars based on his chart work. Can you imagine what that says for the economy? D E P R E S S I O N ! And that probably means a 6 handle on the dow and S&P. But at least at the open we are going to dead cat bounce!
I'm still not up to speed on my computers as they have been in crisis mode for the last few days. So bear with me please if i miss a news item. I'm going to buy a mac this afternoon!
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Cramer tonight said except for Kinder Morgan...to stay away from MLPS. Knocked Atlas Pipeline, Williams, and DCP Midstream as likely distribution cuts if oil stays below 70 dollars next year. Given market conditions i can't argue. If these were normal times Cramers ding would be views by some as a buy signal...but these are not normal times. Video at the link above.
Futures are up a bit right now but that really doesn't mean much. We're probably setting up for another one of those fabulous jaw dropping 1 or 2 day rallies which could come at anytime. But that would just provide another selling opportunity on a trip to a 6 handle on the dow..or maybe even a 5 handle. The market is pricing in a depression. MLPS are being priced to go out of business.
No mlps are up...All are down...some are down big in points like Amerigas (APU), Alliance Resource (ARLP) Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Buckeye (BPL). Some are showing big percentage losses like Hiland (HLND) down 2 at 8. Some are sitting at prices (XTXI) that i never thought i would see (3 dollars) and it is now up a nickle as i type.
One of these days we are going to have another one of those melt up rallies where the mlp index is going to be up 20 or 30 points. The index is back over 163, down 9 and 5 points above its intraday low of 158.
Rallies are as always these days...where you can find them!
Heading up to see my newborn nephew this afternoon so i shall not be able to post. I'm also using a computer in my house that actually works! I will be off to buy a mac this evening.
Buckeye Holdings (BGH) is down at 15.52 with a 17.50 bid on the table. I guess there is some fear creeping in...for some people...to just sell.
Dow and S&P are at the 2002 lows! Second worst bear market ever.
Keep your eye on the citigroup death spiral as it is about to crack 5 dollars.
Some many stocks are in a death spiral. If you watched any of the banks yesterday you certainly could see that the end was near. But some rays of hope for the overall market that have arrived this morning. Stock futures have turned higher now as the Swiss have cut interest rates by 100 basis points! So at least we have a reserve bank concerned about chocolate, cheese, and cukoo clocks. Then ala 1990 we have the Saudi Prince upping his stake in Citigroup. That marked the bottom in banks then. MLPS meanwhile have dropped to levels i think even the most bearish among us did not expect.
Now we have the open. I had a computer crash to deal with so since then markets clearly have turned south and we have taken out the October 10th lows. The dow is down 150...mlp index down another 9 at 163.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Also Buckeye Holdings (BGH) is saying that the tender offer of 17.50 is inadequete. Given market conditions thats a pretty gutsy call.
Speaking of going to zero Citigroup doesn't have far to go with a 6.47 close. Dow down 427. MLP index down 12 points. That 150 low looms large and we could be there in the morning if tomorrow we see some sort of cataclismic dow sell off. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) was down 4.50 as the biggest mlp loser.
Buckeye Holdings (BGH) was among the smallest losers down 16 cents as they have a 17.50 offer on the table...lucky them.
And speaking of lucky...you might want to say..Jehovah!
Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is back to 30 and about to violate its October low. Oneok (OKS) down 3. Kinder Morgan (KMP) down 2. Atlas (APL) under 10 dollars. Atlas Holdings (AHD) under 5....etc etc etc etc.
Pretty soon gun stocks might see buyers!
Speaking of shutting down MLPS are in going out of business mode. Prices are so low and they just continue to fall. There isn't a bidder out there. Nustar (NS) down nearly 2. Oneok (OKS) down nearly 3. Lots of 1 to 2 point losses across the board. Might as well just take'em to zero!
Dow down 200 points. The mlp index is down nearly 8 and approaching 175.
Keep your eyes on nat gas over the next 2 weeks as the weather patterns if correct will favor much below normal temperatures in the northeast and great lakes. Nat gas is up 20 cents today along with heating oil up a penny. Crude is down and gasoline futures are at 1.10.
Hoping for another high power reversal this afternoon as we are back to that 8100 area and the S&P nears 830.
Since bottoms are processes designed to frustrate both sides we can see its been successful doing that along with emptying a few more wallets.

The MLP index while not close to its 150 level intraday low from October might as well be there as a vast majority of MLPS are trading at junk yield levels of 20% or higher and have taken out those lows and thensome. Kinder Morgan (KMP) Nustar (NS) Oneok (OKS) are 10 to 15 points above their intraday lows and are holding up the index value. The fact is for the vast majority of mlps we are wandering through the wilderness.
Watch Hiland Parnters (HLND) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) as the company put out 2009 guidance yesterday and whose CEO made comments on the unit price being at levels that do not reflect the company's performance nor its outllook. It will be interesting to see if this brings any bids in. The stock has dropped from a high of 60 to an 11 handle. The gp is down from near 30 to 5. Its a sign of the times and the uncertainty which has been taken to a bitter extreme. Missed this yesterday but Enbridge (ENB) is purchasing shares of Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) which raises its stake to 27%. Can't be a bad thing.
I'm still recovering from a major crash of my computer and i was up until 1:30 am last night reloading for the second time. Just when i had everything done my anti-virus caused XP to crash and i had to restore everything from scratch. So i may be missing some news items and for that i apologize. I should get up to speed later this morning.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
"Given these recent developments and the growing relationships Hiland has developed with exploration and production companies that have substantial unconventional resource acreage, Hiland is extremely disappointed in the decline in our unit prices and we do not believe such prices fairly represent the solid operating results we have delivered to date or reflect Hiland's long term prospects for constructing and operating the natural gas midstream facilities essential for delivering natural gas for our country's needs," Griffin continued.
So Mr Griffin is disappointed. He isn't alone.
Saw a post about requiring registration and getting annoyed with negative posts. It's not the negative posts. You can be as negative as you want. But its time we all know each other. If you need to hide behind anonimity...then i guess you can't speak your mind here. If you are going to talk your game..please do. We should be able to have an id to relate to.
MLPS closed down 2 points after being down nearly 8. Dow went from down 175 to plus 151 at the close. Another wild day. That 8000 level keeps holding. Now lets see followthrough tomorrow.
MLPS are languishing for now with the index down 2 points. No big losers but lots of mlps down fractions to major fractions. Very few mlps showing any gains and what few there are up are only up small fractions.
There is a general maliase on the mlp tape today...no interest really in either direction. Lets hope for a move this afternoon. Energy futures all down. Even stupid Sudanese pirates can't resurrect this sad market. Gasoline futures at 1.17 which gives just about everyone a 1 handle on gas and low 2's on heating oil very soon.
If you absolutely have to trade in this mess we're back at a place where things will either hold or we will take another step down into hell...ala Dante's Inferno!
Monday, November 17, 2008
Here are my initial purchases made today
25% DIG...DOUBLE LONG OIL AND GAS
25% UYM DOUBLE LONG BASIC MATERIALS
25% DDM DOUBLE LONG DOW INDUSTRIALS
15% DXO DOUBLE CRUDE OIL
10% US STEEL
Also i purchased today some of the new triple long large cap stocks (FAS). Its a small position and a bounce play...short term only!
Down 3.51 on the MLP index as of 2pm. Not much happening really. Just tugging back and forth in here. Dow down 90 points.
Dow now up nearly 50. Could be bounce time.
Hiland Partners (HLND) is circling the drain today down another dollar and change. This once 60 dollar mlp now sits with a 12 handle! At least the Atlas family (APL,AHD) and Markwest (MWE) along with the Crosstex's (XTEX,XTXI) all flat to even a little higher so at least they are hanging on along the sides of the toilet bowl. Enterprise (EPD) Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are all down 1 point or more.
A few small winners like Martin Midstream (MMP) Buckeye Holdings (BGH) and a couple of others but nothing that really stands out. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is up 1 and some change on no news and low volume.
Just got a form 4 sec filing from Hiland Holdings (HPGP) with a 2500 share insider buy. Insider buys carry no weight in an enviornment like this.
Weekends come and go and these days those are the only 2 days we don't lose money. Sunday at mass we offer prayers for the economy! Sunday family gatherings include discussions of government conspiracy; of those magical 5 guys in a room smoking cigars who intentionally drove oil prices to 140 and then with equal intent drove them back down to 60. Suck are weekends these days. Monday mornings come with futures showing 200 point down opens.
We're trying to carve out a trading bottom in here but it seems like we are destined to sweat out another trip down into the abyss first. We have to hold in here because if we break here then the markets are telegraphing that we are headed for a severe economic recession that will last for a long time. Maybe we will cascade into that elusive final capitulation...or not...who knows.Rick Santelli on Friday evening put up a chart of junk bond yields sitting somewhere just under 20%. And then it hit me. That is what MLPS have become. Most are now trading at "junk" status and a few are yielding at "garbage" status.
Candlestick fans can see that doji hammer from last Thursday which is a bullish formation. It has not been undone by Friday's mess as we finished with just a 1 point loss.News this morning as Crosstex LP (XTEX) and Crosstex (XTXI) announce a sale of a non strategic asset. When you need to raise money...everything becomes "non strategic".
No other corporate developemests so far and nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list.
Over the weekend i posted some changes. From here on if you want to post on the blog you will need to log in with some sort of id. All opinions are welcome and encouraged to be shared. But there is no reason here to hide behind a door in order to speak freely. This may result in few posters which will be disappointing but so be it!
Cold weather here in the Northeast for the whole week ahead and into next weekend. Should be supportive for nat gas and perhaps heating oil. Might be a driver for crude down the road but the cracking economy continues to be the primary driver of energy prices.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
I love comments...i encourage comments...i want and love to see diaolog with my readers. But i think its time for those who post to have to log in before posting.
I would like to thank those of you who have hit the donation button on the sidebar or bought that fantastic Mystic Monk Coffee!!! Every little bit helps and i really appreciate it very much! Its like you bought me a beer and a cigar at the bar after a good conversation!!!! And i do love a good beer and a good cigar! Thank you again.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Another week coming to a close. Supposedly Hedge fund redemptions were to be announced by the 15th (tomorrow). If everyone sold ahead of it could we see a dead cat bounce rally next week in some of these things?
Wish i knew the answer.
Paulsen comments which imply that maybe there are no more major banks to fail is perhaps bringing about this bounce. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is up now nearly 3 points. Plains All American (PAA) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) up 1 or more.
Markwest (MWE) has come off its low of 11 and change earlier this week and has climbed up toward 15 this afternoon.
The energy complex continues its unrelenting drop with crude at 56 and change. Gasonline at 1.23 2.33 gas here in NY and under 2 dollars everywhere in New Jersey. Who would have guessed it 4 months ago! It just took a complete collapse of capitalism.
Had my tooth refilled so i'm pretty numb right now. The markets have numbed me long ago!
Citigroup downgrades Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD) to sell and lowers the target to 4 dollars! Glory! Eagle Rock is up 40 cents and back over 8 dollars on last nights news that some important shareholders will be adding to positions with open market purchases. Suburban Propane (SPH) is up 25 cents on earnings.
I'm heading to the dentist to get a tooth fixed. Fabulous!
Thursday, November 13, 2008
THE KEY REVERSAL!
Two powerful technical formations appeared yesterday as we indicated yesterday afternoon that the market looked and felt like it was staging a powerful reversal and by days end we finished up nearly 60 points on the S&P.
As usually in past reversals MLPS lagged but they usually play catch up the next day and i would expect to see upside today. Divergences are showing up in relative strength on both charts and it seems we could have a tradeable bottom in here and that an intermediate term rally could be at hand...and that could carry for a few months.
Of course we've been down this road before and the markets have ignored past divergences as we made lower lows. So it is in prove it to me mode but i am gaining some optimism here. But make no mistake the road ahead will continue to remain difficult.
There was some interesting news from Eagle Rock Energy Partners (CEP) which has a 7 handle. At least someone sees some value in here. Earnings this morning from Suburban Propane (SPH) where the company says they are in a position of financial strength given the present market conditions.
Please note that Yahoo for some reason has the payout dates for many mlps as Novemeber 13th which was yesterday when in reality its November 14th...which is today. So don't get nervous if you don't see the cash in your account. It arrives today.
Stock futures are off the lows this morning and crude has turned higher by a quarter. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far. I'm looking for followthrough today from yesterday's gains. It may not come at the open but if we can build from here. In reality the followthrough doesn't neccessarily have to come today but it would be nice.
My apologies for yesterday as i had 3 computers in my house all crash at the same time for one reason or another so it was a very difficult day.
Plains All Amercian (PAA) and Hiland Partners (HLND) are down over 2 points as the biggest losers. A few mlps showing fractional gains as some are starting to turn. Markwest (MWE) leads the winners list up 75 cents to just under 14.
In the time i typed this post the dow has gone from minus 50 to +15. OOPS +25.
Markets seeing selling with both hands as we approach and break through some key lows set back in October. Where we finish the day however will be critical. Mlps sharply lower too as everything gets thrown out the window.
Sorry about the lack of info today. i'm still trying to get everything technically correct.
Under 8000 right now.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Citigroup (C) is now under 10 dollars. International Paper (IP) is at 11. US Steel is at 27 and change. Should have just bought Terra Nitrogen (TNH) which is somehow still over 100!
BTW take a look at Hiland Holdings (HPGP) which is trading now at 6 and change and is down nearly 2 points on 9000 shares of volume. Shows you what happens when you have no buyers at all.
Glory!
1 to 2 point losses litter the screen with Copano (CPNO) Atlas Pipeline (APL) Natural Resource (NRP) Breitburn (BBEP) Alliance Resource (ARLP) Holly Partners (HEP) Enbridge (EEP) etc etc etc all down 1 point or more. When you look at prices these shares the idea of distribution cuts seems to be taking hold. You will know when the damage is over...and thats when they stop going down on the prospect of cuts...or actually rise on the news of a cut. Unfortunately we have 3 long months to wait for this.
Markwest (MWE) is up 40 cents right now among the few gainers.
With the exception of Kinder Morgan (KMP) Oneok (OKS) Nustar (NS) Enterprise (EPD) Buckeye (BPL) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Magellan (MMP) and maybe a few others the market place is pricing in distribution cuts. And this is as ugly an enviornment as you could possibly get. The market is taking no comfort in the quarterly reports, distibution increases, distribution guidance. So what does that tell us? Look at crude now under 60 dollars and gasoline futures under 1.30. I think the market is telling us that economic conditions are going to get even worse...and worse enough that next quarter these companies will be telling us that market conditions will be so bad that distributions will need to be taken down to preserve capital. Can you imagine any of these companies going to the well with their equity prices sitting at yield levels of 20 to 25%? Look at Markwest (MWE) as an example of what the company said with reguards to earnings and guidance and the market's verdict. 20% yield? Crosstex (XTEX) cutting its distribution i believe has been taken to mean that more are coming. Unfortunately we have 3 months of agony to get through before we know anything.
So on that somber note we have no corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are weaker this morning as of this post. Crude is down to 58 bucks. Blah Blah Blah.
I'm beginning to think we have a 1000 point down day coming in the market....not sure when it will happen but if it does... It might be smart to put in some silly bids in some stocks...assuming of course that anyone has any money left to play with.
See you on the soup line!
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Between more hedge fund unwind and the smell of distribution cuts all over the place the damage is extensive with the index down over 7 and getting close to 200. No sign of any kind of bottom as prices drop to in some cases after life prices! Markwest (MWE) under 12. Atlas Pipeline (APL) under 14. Willams (WPZ) with a 17 handle. And so on and so on and so on.
And just exactly how many hedgefunds bought all this mlp shit anyway?

its Veterans Day so it should be a slow day on the tape with subdued volume. If i had to guess who stayed home today it would be the buyers rather than the sellers but one never knows.
This is an early post as i have some personal stuff to take care of this morning. Nothing serious, but i will try and blog while i'm on the road. (i'll pull over...not while driving!).
At this early hour stock futures are down but not by anything catastrophic. Energy is lower as Crude oil desperately tries to hold 60 dollars and Brent is down to 57 and some change. Nat gas is off only 4 cents after yesterday's rally which really did nothing to support energy stocks or mlps. Looking for a bounce in Markwest (MWE) on its earnings last night and on indications that the distribution increases may continue in 2009 albeit at a modest pace. Also looking to see if the death by 1000 cuts continues in issues like the Atlas's (APL,AHD) Constellation (CEP) Hiland (HLND) and others. Problems continue for Quest Resources Jerry Cash..he's the guy who is accused of misusing 10 million worth of cash from the company. That stock is sitting around 4.
Monday, November 10, 2008
If you want to buy in a distressed market with your distributions...you may get your chance soon enough as money arrives in accounts shortly...assuming of course you don't need the cash to survive.
The patient is flatlining.
The mlp index has gone from +5 to flat as markets open at their highs and sell off. The dow is barely higher now. Oil was up nearly 5 dollars...now up 50 cents.
A few winners like Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Exterran Partners (EXLP) and Nustar (NS) up 1 point or more. Fractional gains in Oneok (OKS) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Holly Partners (HEP) Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD).
The broader market is reacting to the China stimulus plan of 500+billion dollars and that has gotten commodities off their backs this morning. Nice gains in the pre-market in anything materials related and of course the entire energy complex is getting a lift as well. Crude is up 3 dollars and nat gas is up nearly 40 cents. Stock futures pointing to at least a 200 point up open. Whether it carries through until the end of the day remains to be seen.
The MLP index seems to have put a floor around 200 or so and the top of the range is 225. We are right in the middle of that range as we start the day at 211.94 and while the chart remains in sorrow and pity...we should at least take a run to the top of the range today.
We are entering the period where the earnings news and distribution announcements are pretty much done. So now we wait for the checks to come in the mail. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades. I think the action lately in many mlps has been surrounding distribution cuts in future quarters and the market is taking what it views as the more vunerable among those companies down in the abyss. Astronomical yields are signs of trouble but if those companies are being tarred and feathered with the same brush, then there are buys out there. The hard part is figuring out which ones.
Headlines as they break this morning.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
S&P futures soaring tonight as the Chinese are stepping up to the plate with a large stimulus program. Should help materials and commodities based stocks in the morning. And maybe MLPS will go along for the ride! We can only hope and pray.
Friday, November 07, 2008
There was a request for a point and figure chart on the MLP index which you see here. It has turned bullish and has an upside target of 330 (excuse the laughter). I'm not sure how these charts work but there is some detail here.Up about 4 points on the mlp index with the down up 170. Magellan (MMP) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) showing 1 point plus gains.
Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) just continues to sink and is down nearly 2 points today. No news on 550,000 shares changing hands. Atlas Holdings (AHD) is holding up however as it is flat right now. Crosstex LP (XTEX) is up 20 cents on earnings which are what they are.
Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) put up its earnings and said that future distributions would depend on the coverage ratio which right now sits at under 1 x. Stock is down 25 cents.
The president elect speaks later today and market watchers will be listening for clues.
The employment numbers (or lack there of) were worst then forecast by consensus; as if the market didn't price this in the last 2 days. Futures behaving in a way that suggests a rally in here as they seem to want to resist going down further. I guess 1000 points in 2 days is enough.
MLPS just move with everything else and 200 on the index has held again so we should bounce if the market bounces. Some earnings numbers this morning. Hiland Partners and Hiland Holdings (HLND,HPGP) put up earnings which have a lot of one time gains in them. The company did say they have plenty of cash to take them through all of 2009 and won't have to touch their credit lines. That should be viewed positively in this enviornment. Both stocks have been cut by more than 60%. Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) puts numbers up which we knew would not be pretty since the companies cut their payouts 2 weeks ago. Both stocks have a signal digit handle. DCP Midstream also announces earnings this morning as this stock has gone from 45 to 12.
Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Holly Partners (HEP) is up a fraction and so is Amerigas (APU). No reason why.
Earnings are out from Linn Energy (LINE) and Global Partners (GLP). Linn has a coverage ratio of 1.14 and overall numbers look pretty good.
Also add Williams Partners (WPZ) and Genesis (GEL) to the list of companies reporting this morning.
Just an ugly day otherwise with the mlp index down 12 points and the dow down 450.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the President-elect but then again the rally into it was a bit odd. So we're back to 9100. MLPS were down yesterday by a little over 4 points so relative outperformance continues as the charts indicate.


Frankly i thought futures would have been much lower this morning. When I went to bed last night S&P futures were down 35 points but this morning only down 12 or so. Bank of England and the ECB will announce rate moves this morning so we may be seeing short covering ahead of that. BULLETING...B OF E CUTS INTEREST RATES BY 1.50 BASIS POINTS! WOW. Market poised to open flat now as futures rebound.
Earnings last night from Legacy Partners (LGCY) Plains All American (PAA) Copano (CPNO) and this morning we have numbers from Exterran Partners (EXLP). There might be a few more companies reporting today and when they hit i will post.
Nothing on the upgrade/downgrade list yet. Energy prices are lower this morning as they follow the equity markets. The dollar is higher this morning. Headlines as they break.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Off the morning lows of minus 3 on the MLP index as we follow the broader tape. Atlas Pipeline (APL) is at the very top of the winners list up 1.60. Also higher are Inergy Holdings (NRGP) up 1 and change. Fractiona winners include Nustar (NS) Copano (CPNO) Energy Transfer (ETP) and Global Partners (GLP).
Magellan (MMP) is down 1 and change as the biggest loser. Also down nearly 1 are Calumet (CLMT) Linn Energy (LINE) and EV Partners (EVEP) although note that the change in the nasdaq mlps may include the ex-distribution amount.
Market holding its own today after yesterday's gain. Volitility continues to come in which makes it easier to trade.
NOW ITS EARNINGS
We have earnings this morning which will be driving a few individual issues. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is up in the pre market on its numbers. No press release yet but i'll put the link up when it comes. Conference call this morning at 9am. It will be interesting to see if they address the concerns by the Citi anal-ist that downgraded the stock to a sell last week. The stock is now above where it was when the downgrade came out. Also out this morning are earnings for Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) which suffered greatly from the price spike in oil. The company seems to have done the right things but the market may say otherwise as there is stock for sale below yesterday's close. We're waiting for press releases from Quicksilver Gas LP (KGS) and Eagle Rock (EROC) which should hit sometime this morning.
Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list this morning. Crude is 2 dollars lower after a 7 dollar gain yesterday. Stock futures are softer but off the lows of the morning after a 300+ gain yesterday and a push over 1000 on the S&P. I think this rally still has some legs in it so the pullback might be a buying opportunity for short term traders. MLPS continue to swing with the market moves so we will of course watch their gyrations. More ex-distributions hit the tape this morning as this cycle comes to a close. The cash arrives in about 10 days.
So let us now put the election behind us and get back to some semblence of normalcy...whatever that is.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
TEXAS....McCAIN
UTAH...McCAIN
IOWA...OBAMA
MISSISSIPPI...McCAIN
NEBRASKA...McCAIN
KANSAS...McCAIN
VIRGINIA...OBAMA
CALIFORNIA...OBAMA
SOUTH DAKOTA...McCAIN
OREGON..OBAMA
WASHINGTON...OBAMA
S&P futures have turned positive again on the increasing probability that democrats will fall short of 60 seats.
The Senate at least is still in play as far as the 60 seat majority for the democrats but they need to win the remaining 6 toss up seats.
One has to ask oneself if we are going from being a center right country to a center left country? Given the actions of the government these past few weeks its hard to argue against it.
The polls have closed in a few states and we have the following so far.
KENTUCKY...McCAIN
VERMONT...OBAMA
WEST VIRGINIA...McCAIN
INDIANA.. TOO CLOSE TO CALL
VIRGINIA...TCTC
GEORGIA....TCTC
FLORIDA....TCTC
So far Democrats have picked up 1 senate seat in Virginia as Mark Warner wins but this was an expected turnover seat. To close to call in the Dole race in North Carolina
Nothing will satisfy Mr Sullivan unless he gets to personally scrape her uterus. Hey Andrew...you mostl likely won the election...why not just leave it alone and crawl back into your hole.
No wonder people hate journalists.
Lots of 1 dollar plus winners including Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) which is now back above levels before the Citigroup downgrade. Natural Resource (NRP) Plains All American (PAA) and Williams (WPZ) all one dollar winners.
No big losers today...a few mlps down mainly less than 50 cents including Boardwalk (BWP) Genesis (GEL) Brietburn (BBEP) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP).
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is an LP and it got a Cramer goose last night which took it from 87 to 97 in after hours. And today's rally has it at 108! Glory!
Holly Partners (HEP) which sold off 3 points yesterday puts up earnings which as i read them look pretty good and they say they have no debt and haven't touched their credit line. These days that has to be a good thing.
Stock futures soaring as we open up 250 points based on futures.
Now this is an early morning post so i'll be back before the open to update this but as of this posting the futures are sharply higher by some 20 points on the S&P and 180 dow points. I'm not sure if the markets are reacting to anything other than technicals...or maybe they are trying to tell us something. I have not revealed my choice for president other than to say that i will be voting with both hands...one on the lever and one to hold my nose. That said for those of you who want to follow the election Real Clear Politics is a place to start. I will be live blogging the returns tonight.
I will be back with the morning news items before the open.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Crosstex LP (XTEX) hovers around 10 down nearly 3. Crosstex (XTXI) hovers around 9 down 1 and some change. Cutting the distribution is the cardinal sin in this group. K-Sea Transportation LP (KSP) is up 2 and now leads the list of winners.
Markwest (MWE) getting the distribution cut jitters today as it is down 1.45. Thanks to Bruce for this link on more info on what Barclay Lehman sees as relative risk on some MLPS in 2009. Not all mlps are reacting to this and even the ones mentioned positively aren't moving higher necessarily. But it is something to trade on and some people are.
The damage in Crosstex LP (XTEX) continues as its down another 2.70 and nears 10 dollars a share. And Crosstex (XTXI) is down another dollar at just above 9. Markwest (MWE) is down 1.49. No news there. Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) is down fractionally after being up big on Friday. They reported record earnings this morning. Magellan Midstream (MMP) is up 34 cents on its earnings this morning.
Some MLPS have recovered nicely from the abyss of a few weeks ago. Martin Midstream(MMLP) is back to near 26 and up 1 on the day. Buckeye Partners (BPL) is up 1 and over 41 dollars.
Exterran Partners (EXLP)...and i have called it excrement partners because its just too easy is up 1 and some change and back over 16! Other winners include Transmontaigne up over 1. Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD) up 70 cents. And we have a host of issues showing fractional gains.
OTHER NONSENSE!

If you went to sleep on October first and woke up on November 1st you would be looking at the mlp index down just about 4 points. Amazing what occured in between. Now we have put October behind us. Silly season in the land of politics ends tomorrow with the election. And maybe now we can look foward to...a deep recession?
This morning we're seeing Boardwalk Partners (BWP) getting a boost from Cramer as he goosed the stock last Friday on Mad Money. Stock is up in the pre-market. Also we have earnings this morning from Magellan Midstream (MMP)which look very good and the company continues to forecast a record year. Teekay Offshore (TOO) boosts the distribution by 12.5 percent.
Crude is down this morning along with nat gas and by products. Libor rates continue to drop as the credit freeze continues to ease slowly but steadily. Stock futures were higher earlier but now are a little lower going into the open.










