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Wednesday, October 01, 2008

I don't know the basis for the Goldman downgrade on Crosstex (XTXI) but its down 4 and Crosstex (XTEX) which i do not see a downgrade for. Still XTXI is down 4 to 20 and XTEX is down 3 and change to under 15!

MLPS down about 3 points as the dow hits minus 200.
Goldman Sachs cuts Crosstex (XTXI) to a sell. Stock is down nearly 4 dollars.
AN END TO A HIDEOUS QUARTER





From 270 to 225 on the MLP or over 20% down for the quarter and actually just about all of that drop came during September. It is the worst drop for mlps possibly ever seen. I can't find a stretch anywhere on the long term chart that equates to the crash we've seen in this group during the last quarter. September 2008 was certainly a blood curdling for us. And now here we go with a new month, new quarter, and the financial world continues to spin out of control.

One of the issues going foward for mlps will be how to grow with limited or no access to capital. Either you go out there and do deals by issuing equity...which is dilutive and will drive prices lower...or you grow internally; that is you have or own well capacity to drill and bring product to market. And what about distribution growth. The ability to grow payouts just doesn't matter right now as we have seen. Yields on mlps continue to hover near all time highs. At some point this all gets priced in but i'm afraid given market conditions i'm afraid we are not there yet. The next cycle of distribution announcements will be coming in a few weeks.

New month and new quarter but there is no news out there this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Yesterday's nearly 6 point dead cat bounce was just that...a dead cat bounce. Market conditions continue to be stressed so we go where the rest of the market goes. Stock futures are lower this morning. Energy futures are flat to a little higher with inventory numbers out later. Note that yesterday's 485 point dow rally takes us back to where the market was around 1:30 pm Monday...right before the gasbag vote in the house.

I yearn for a week where the dow trades in a 100 point range and finishes unchanged. My hair hurts and my teeth itch.


Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Just to be clear on the Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) news...the company has hired an investment firm to explore options for CEP. The investment firm will be working directly with CEP....NOT CEG! There seems to be confusion between the two and while i know my regular mlps readers know the difference...some out there do not.
Please folks...just a reminder if you post a story in the comments section please also post the link...thank you.

Going into the close with nearly a 6 point gain on the MLP index but the volume today is low. I wish i could be more enthused about this but right now i'm demoralized with everyone else. Yet somehow i managed to pull off 5 nice day trades in the group.
Well the dead cat is bouncing by 250 dow points and 4.50 mlp points which gets us back about 1/3 of yesterday's loss. Blogging about this stuff is so depressing as i look at prices i thought i would never ever see. I does humble the soul.

There are a lot of end of quarter moves going on and the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashannah causing less than normal volume. Kinder Morgan leads the way higher up 2 points. Still some losers on the list like Inergy (NRGY) which is down 1 and Calumet (CLMT) which is down about 80 cents.
IT AIN'T 1929....NOT YET!





And now of course after yesterday's 777 point debacle and the 15 point drop in the MLP index we see today setting up for a bounce at the open which frankly doesn't thrill me because it gives a strong bid for people to sell into. We are setting up to get about 1/2 of yesterday's loss but who knows if it holds.

News this morning on Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which is exploring strategic alternatives in leiu of the merger of Constellation (CEG) with Mid American Energy. Stock is catching a bid on the news in the pre-market. No other news this morning. No upgrades or downgrades in MLP land.

220 seems to be the line in the sand for us right now. We'll dead cat bounce with everything else this morning and then we will see if the sellers are done or if we are about to go further down into the abyss.

Monday, September 29, 2008

In case you missed it here is Nancy Pelosi's speech on the house floor that pissed off the republicans.



Could we please please please get some adults in the room? And maybe there was more to Pelosi's speech than meets the eye.
THE BIGGEST ONE DAY DROP
IN POINT TERMS EVER!
NASDAQ DOWN 200 POINTS OR 10% IN ONE DAY!
THE HOUSE SETS THE ECONOMY ON FIRE



It has gone beyond MLPS a long time ago. The House of Representatives has pretty much tossed the entire US off the Empire State Building and we are rapidly approaching the pavement. These vile reps in Congress who have no clue how markets work have effectively sentenced us to a vicious recession. So now we will let the markets tell Washington what we think of them. See you at 9000! No point at looking at charts; they are pretty much meaningless now.

Legacy Partners (LGCY) was the only winner today up 6 cents. otherwise the damage in mlp land was extensive. The index closed @ 220 down 15 which was off the lows of the day @ 217.
Kinder Morgan (KMP) was down 4 as the biggest loser.

My bank is JP Morgan Chase and the mood in my branch was pretty somber today. I don't know why because the way its going they will be the only bank left!

On a serious note i hope all of you out there are okay. It certainly hasn't been easy and it may get a lot harder over the next few days. If need be...take a deep breath..drink lots of liquor...watch some football tonight. Just take a step back and relax. This too shall pass...so long as we don't pass out first.
Nancy Pelosi apparently gave such a partisan speech on the floor that pissed off republicans and 10 votes switched. Isn't that special!!!

Dow down 550. Mlps down 16. Enjoy the crash!
Let me just say as a republican i am really angered by this. These windbags have now sent us catapalting into the abyss. Energy stocks are being executed across the board.
Low point was -705 on the dow as the house appears to be rejecting the bill. Right now down 445. MLP index down 15. Kinder Morgan is down 4 as the lead loser. Energy Transfer (ETP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Nustar (NS) and Plains All American (PAA) down 3 points. And we have a mile long list of 2 point losers.
Stand by as the gas bags in Washington are voting.

if this goes down...well???
Well now that we've worked through the opening noise MLPS are down 8 points on the index with the dow down 350 at the low. Energy stocks getting thrown out the window this morning. Crude is crashing...down 7 dollars and about to go under 100 bucks again. All mlps are down...some are down 1 to 2 points.

I suppose its comforting to know that your portfolio is goind down along with the solvency of several other nations. If you are going to go...you might as well go big and take as many people with you as you can!

Gasbags vote at 1pm
Not sure what is going on with Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) but the stock is up 1.55 on 60,000 shares. Could be end of quarter stuff going on but when your up on a morning like this it does tend to stand out.

The mlp index is down 4 points with the dow down 203. Wachovia is toast this morning so that seems to be driving mood.
DONE DEAL BUT NOT
A PRETTY PICTURE



Charts aren't exactly getting one's heart racing. The gasbags in Washington have completed the deal. The question for MLPS is whether pressure comes off the credit markets to take some of the pressure off MLPS. Also we have the locusts decending on Wachovia this morning with the stock trading with a 3 handle down from Friday's close around 10 bucks.






What is interesting on the charts to me is they had every opportunity last week to take 'em down 1000 points and down to 10k on the DOW. Didn't happen. Also note that on balance volume which is a running total of up volume minus down volume is actually increasing in here. So as grim as things look this morning on the dow and s&p futures i haven't given up hope yet.

Here is a bit of news on Ferrellgas (FGP) which puts up in line earnings and says they expect record EBITDA for 2009. I'm sure the market will yawn because that's the way things are these days. No other earnings and no upgrades or downgrades.

Crude and Natgas are on the decline this morning by large amounts...crude off nearly 4 bucks and gasoline is down 10 cents. This weekend i took a delivery of heating oil at 3.75 a gallon. This plus my new Peerless Boiler and hopefully my oil bills go down this winter. BTW winter forecasts will be due out soon and i'm sure we'll have market reactions to that.

It doesn't help that Europe is falling apart with bailouts for Britian's largest mortgage lender and bailout for Fortis. Of course the European central bankers continue to sip their espressos and planning their holiday in the South of France. Heaven forbid they should ease.

So that's pretty much it in a nutshell this morning. But lets not give up hope just yet. What else is there?

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Futures begin trading @ 6pm and CNBC.com has the info. So does Bloomberg.com so lets keep our fingers crossed for a relief rally Monday. European problems emerging with Fortis on the ropes as well as B&B in Britian being taken over. ECB...ITS TIME TO EASE 50 BASIS POINTS AND STOP WORRYING ABOUT INFLATION.

I wonder if Bernake is ready to cut 50 basis points here after this deal is done?

Saturday, September 27, 2008

OH NO...ITS MY MOTHER IN LAW.




Here is the latest on the bailout from the Wall Street Journal. No subscription required. Bloomberg reporting they are close to a deal.
WEEKEND WAITING AND
A MARKET MELTUP?




If you need a reason for why all this is happening, this video explains it in a fairly basic way. Spread it around.



Meanwhile i'm beginning to wonder whether we are setting up for another market melt up. The unintended consequence of not being able to short financials is that the crowd has instead shorted the S&P 500 futures contract and there has been a huge spike in the short interest there. If those short positions all run for cover at the same time we could see a couple of big up days. Add to that end of quarter and the climax of the government bailout plan and we could see some wild action next week. IMHO of course.