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Wednesday, October 01, 2008

AN END TO A HIDEOUS QUARTER





From 270 to 225 on the MLP or over 20% down for the quarter and actually just about all of that drop came during September. It is the worst drop for mlps possibly ever seen. I can't find a stretch anywhere on the long term chart that equates to the crash we've seen in this group during the last quarter. September 2008 was certainly a blood curdling for us. And now here we go with a new month, new quarter, and the financial world continues to spin out of control.

One of the issues going foward for mlps will be how to grow with limited or no access to capital. Either you go out there and do deals by issuing equity...which is dilutive and will drive prices lower...or you grow internally; that is you have or own well capacity to drill and bring product to market. And what about distribution growth. The ability to grow payouts just doesn't matter right now as we have seen. Yields on mlps continue to hover near all time highs. At some point this all gets priced in but i'm afraid given market conditions i'm afraid we are not there yet. The next cycle of distribution announcements will be coming in a few weeks.

New month and new quarter but there is no news out there this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Yesterday's nearly 6 point dead cat bounce was just that...a dead cat bounce. Market conditions continue to be stressed so we go where the rest of the market goes. Stock futures are lower this morning. Energy futures are flat to a little higher with inventory numbers out later. Note that yesterday's 485 point dow rally takes us back to where the market was around 1:30 pm Monday...right before the gasbag vote in the house.

I yearn for a week where the dow trades in a 100 point range and finishes unchanged. My hair hurts and my teeth itch.


4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Marc Faber (GloomBoomDoom) writes in his recently released monthly letter that he would not be surprised to see a bear market rally beginning now.

"I could easily envision a powerful bear market rally beginning in October, which could propel the S&P 500 up between 10% and 15% and the extremely over-sold emerging markets by 20% or so."

Of couse, the operative word is "bear." His longer term forecast for the market is pretty grim.

Lee

joewxman said...

Well we are in a timeframe where major bottoms are formed. I suppose in the context of where we are, a bear market rally is all we can expect.

I'll settle for a nice up week!

Anonymous said...

Teh quarter was bad, but most of the damage was done in September.

A September to remember, or tho forget!


HS

Anonymous said...

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and Energy Transfer Partners Announce Customer Commitments for New Pipeline Project
HOUSTON & DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:KMP) and Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ETP) today announced the two companies have entered into a 50/50 joint venture, Fayetteville Express Pipeline, LLC (FEP), to develop a new pipeline. The approximately 187-mile pipeline will originate in Conway County, Ark., continue eastward through White County, Ark., and terminate at an interconnect with Trunkline Gas Company in Quitman County, Miss. The pipeline will have an initial capacity of 2.0 billion cubic feet per day. Pending necessary regulatory approvals, the approximately $1.3 billion pipeline project is expected to be in service by late 2010 or early 2011. FEP has secured binding 10-year commitments totaling 1.575 million dekatherms per day (dth/day), including 1.2 million dth/day from Southwestern Energy Services, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE:SWN), and 375,000 dth/day with an option for an additional 125,000 dth/day from Chesapeake Energy Marketing, Inc., an affiliate of Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK).