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Thursday, November 30, 2006

CHART BREAKOUTS EVERYWHERE...MORE UPSIDE LIKELY!

After yesterday's big upside in anything energy lets take a look at some charts which could give us a clue of what lies ahead.



First off is our AMZ MLP index which closed yesterday at a new all time high. The weekly chart broke out 3 weeks ago and i think we still have quite a bit to go here...my first upside target is the 300 level.

Below we have the XOI chart which is doing a very good job of running back to its all time high in the 1220-30 zone. This move looks very powerful and we should see this upleg clear the prior highs shortly.


Meanwhile I had not looked at this in awhile but the XNG index which is the index of big nat gas stocks has clearly broken out to new all time highs.


Isn't it interesting that the stock indexes in energy have moved so strongly during a stretch where oil prices have been going back and forth between 55 and 60 dollars. Yesterday we broke through to 62 dollars and we're higher this morning again. At least from the standpoint of the stocks i think the market is telling us that at these prices companies will be making lots of money. Nat gas has been moving higher for awhile off its bottom



Now take a look at the crude verses 10 year rate chart.



Rates have been falling (prices rising) since July in bonds while oil has been falling in the same stretch. Are we at another turning point here with a top in bonds and a bottom in crude? My bet here is the 10 year note will breakout to new highs. Crude has not emerged from that base yet so until we clear 64 or 65 bucks decisively , i think bonds remain in their uptrend.

All of this for MLPS means that we still have 3 strong winds at our backs...rising stock markets...favorable 10 year rates...stable to rising energy prices. And remember i don't think the energy market has priced in any kind of cold winter weather.

This morning its quiet as we have no news and no upgrades or downgrades at least so far. So i think we look for mommentum to carry us higher today at the start.

4 comments:

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joewxman said...

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