Good Morninig.
We're starting from a good place this morning with the MLP INDEX at new all time highs. Earnings news from last night and this morning as Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) reports numbers.... which have all kinds of stuff in them so i'm waiting to see what the apples to apples comparisons are. They did issue 07 guidance of EBITDA OF 980 million. We'll see what the market says about this but it appears to be a positive. But has the market already figured that out?


Energy Transfer's performance has been absolutley spectacular and the GP Energy Transfer Equity whose chart is below looks like its poised to breakout above the 30 level.



I am blogging early this morning so I thought we'd look at some charts of a few of the more popular and widely held MLPS.




Those of you who frequent the yahoo message boards on Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Teppco (TPP) will know who Billyjoe is. He has been bearish on these two issues since the fall of Rome. And while most disagree with that position the stock has been in a downtrend since August of 2005 and has been a laggard among MLPS in the recent move. I would think that a short position here would have been profitable if one caught the exact top and covered at the recent bottom near 42-43. So we have roughly 8 points of downside minus 5 quarterly distributions you would have paid out...a 5 point profit roughly, again assuming you caught the absolute top. But it looks to me like Kinder Morgan's chart is improving and it should at least run back toward its August 05 high with this secular MLP move. Higher highs will hinge on whether the company will start growing its distributions again. So for new money it might be good for a trade here...but as a group laggard you have to consider whether you'd be better off elsewhere.

Meanwhile another Billyjoe short favorite is Teppco (TPP)



This one has been a tougher nut to crack on the short side and the weekly chart went back to its all time high before getting turned back on earnings (no distribution growth) and a downgrade last week. This one has been probably the worst performer of the group that i could find and i would avoid this one until the company starts growing its distribution again. Meanwhile what happens when a company who has been a laggard suddenly posts good numbers and begins to up its payout. You get a chart like this one.



Valero LP was doing absolutely nothing until it posted a good quarter and boosted its distribution. The stock which was just laying there between 49-51 for a long time...took off and now has run to 56 with a 91 cent payout. Notice that VLI's chart is similar to KMP' chart until they diverge in the last several weeks. So the bottom line is exactly that, the bottom line...and when these laggards start growing again they will take off. Until then I think you might be better off in some of the others.