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Wednesday, April 25, 2007

SUNOCO LOGISTICS DOWNGRADED...WILL THEY CARE?
NEW ALL TIME HIGHS KEEP ROLLING ON
HIGHER HIGHS AGAIN TODAY?

Another all time high close on the MLP index which hit 330 yesterday. More on that later but it appears we have another higher open this morning. Stock futures are positive and the energy complex is trading higher in the pre-market. Distribution announcements for Hiland Partners (HLND) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP). No increase in the distributions this quarter...and i was hoping for a stock split but none announced.

Lehman Brothers takes Sunoco Logistics straight from overweight to underweight and not stopping at equal weight. Lately downgrades haven't done much to take down prices which is the signature of a bull market. We'll see if it does something to a stock in which most anal-ists have been neutral at best. Nothing else on the upgrade downgrade list. RBC starts Inergy (NRGY) at market perform.

Since this bull move in MLPS began last September the AMZ MLP Index is up from 270 ish to 330 or 60 points or 22.5% and that does not include 3 distributions (including the ones coming up in the next few weeks) which brings your total return on the index to nearly 27%! It has been an amazing move and I think now might be a good to re-evaluate. My initial view was that the rally which is being driven by stable 10 year rates...rising energy prices...and an increase in interest from investors could take us to the 400 level on the index. This would mirror the move that occured in 2000-2001 which took the index from 190 to 270 while the rest of the market tanked. There are new investors coming into the group. I have noticed in the last few weeks a sharp rise in new visitors to this blog for instance that have gotten here through their google searches. I have seen a 40% increase in my page views in the last few months. Good for me of course, the more readers the better. But i think this is an indicator of a new group of buyers putting their cash to work. As a result of this new market view of MLPS there has been a compression of yields. This new driver of prices could take us to higher levels. So until we see otherwise the path of least resistence continues to be up; although I must admit that a correction at some point my be nice to shake out a few weak hands and bring prices down for fresh investing. Bull markets are seldom accomodating.

I am working again this morning so i will try and post again around lunchtime.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Excellent post today Joe...valuable perspective.

mike