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Friday, February 13, 2009

ARE WE SETTING UP FOR A BREAKOUT?



Possibly!

Yesterday's 4 point mlp index gain in the face of the dow's reversal in the last half hour was actually a pretty stunning move. Even when the down went to new lows on the day after 3pm..it was down about 230 or so...the mlp index never went negative. The mlp chart is showing the 34 day moving average making a cross of the 55 day and it appears to me that we are about to adventure to a new 2009 high. The real test in my view will come when we get to the 220 level. And btw the mlp index is now back to outperforming the S&P 500 for every time period out to 10 years. Of course the mix of mlps you hold makes a huge difference and if you are in the likes of Crosstex (XTEX) Atlas Pipeline (APL) for example...your position right now may be far worse. If you are in Kinder Morgan (KMP) Nustar (NS) and Buckeye (BPL) your position is far better. If you are in Sunoco Logistics (SXL) your position is stellar. Or perhaps and more likely you have a mix of both bad and good and you are performing...like the index...average!

Its Friday ahead of a 3 day weekend and also your distribution checks will be arriving. Spend them well and help the economy. No news headlines this morning. No upgrades or downgrades. And have you noticed btw how we've been seeing a host of downgrades on mlps right as mlps as a whole continue to slowly improve and vastly outperform the market? "Anal"-ists!

Stock futures are firm. Energy futures are firm. And btw is crude oil ever going to rally again? Gasoline remains way out of whack relative to crude. Is crude going to catch up or is gasoline going to drop?

Finally you must add Iowahawk to your list of must see political satire blogs. I found it yesterday and its absolutely hilarious! Do visit and give it a read. It will be added to the blogroll on the sidebar.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

MLPs have clearly decoupled from equites as a whole and from energy in particular. That's as it should be, but I can't help wonder what has changed since we turned the last page of the 2008 calendar. It's like someone found the lightswitch. My MLP portfolio is up 16.5% so far this year. At this rate, I'll be at breakeven by... Well, never mind; I'll keep this message positive.

joewxman said...

Perhaps MLPS are no longer owned or minimally owned by suspect hedgefunds. They were clearly way oversold in the year end dump and now we have few sellers in the group. That plus the realization that (some but not all) mlps will produce consistent distrbution flow as the rest of the market languishes.

We may have become the only long game in town!