IF YOU COULD TURN BACK TIME

First off please forgive me for quoting Cher but these are desperate times. Now as to the headline the answer is in the stock market you can! And MLPS have done just that as shown on the weekly chart. Yesterday's disasterous 11 point loss takes us back to 2006 levels and the chart has a long base there in an average around 245 or so. So there is room for more downside here. We are also down 6 days in a row from 273 to 249 so a dead cat bounce is in order but that is all it will be.

So lets look at where yields are with some of the mlps.

Oneok Partners 57.77....7.2%

Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) 53.86.....7.35%

Nustar (NS) 48.71...8.08%

Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) 40.26...8.88%

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) 29.09...13.2%

E V Partners (EVEP) 20.63....13.57%*

Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) 10.12.....22.23%

*E V Partners has already announced an increase to 3 dollars annual for Q3 which puts the yield at 14.54%

Oneok Partners is viewed here as the least risky of the mlps as it sells roughly 350 bps above the 10 year. And as you go down the list in this sample you can see what the market is telling us. Distribution increases and promised increases do not matter. Then you have Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which is yielding a whopping 22%. Lehman still has a 2 million share stake in the company based on the last filing back in November when they sold some shares. I've been watching for filings and there have been no additional sales here. And you have the parent shopping its stake around. Yield spread defines risk and the market is pricing (or mis-pricing) these stocks for beyond a worst case scenario. Crashing commodities, crashing energy stocks, crashing economy, and for some (CEP) a distribution cut. Oneok(OKS) and Nustar (NS) are holding up quite well in here. Nustar if you remember pre-announced a record quarter so that one has moved up on a relative basis. But the entire group is in shambles. There is really no hope for a rebound as long as commodities based stocks (rightly or wrongly) continue to get crucified. So everyone is to remain in the bunker with Mr Pipes!

Late yesterday Regency Partners (RGNC) announced a major expansion of a pipeline to accomodate Haynesville Shale production. There is also a 7 million share stake being sold by an affiliate.

Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list this morning as if that makes a difference anyway. Stock futures rallied ahead of Lehman and now have come well off their highs...from +12 on the S&P to +2. Crude is a little higher as Opec is cutting production but that's also coming off yesterday's 4 dollar selloff. Oil numbers out later could be the driver to take prices under 100. Hurricane Ike is likely to pass south of the rigs. The market hasn't cared anyway. Nat gas is a little lower this morning. The dollar is higher and other commodities like gold are lower this morning.

Over 1400 hits on the blog yesterday so it looks like we are approaching another extreme in the mlp selloff. As i said earlier...a dead cat bounce could come at anytime.