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Friday, January 12, 2007

MLPS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RELATIVE STRENGHT...IS THE MLP CORRECTION OVER?...BIG ENERGY COULD FINALLY RALLY TODAY...

I set up a chart here comparing the XOI and the AMZ MLP index. Note that since August MLPS have clearly outperformed big energy and that divergence is at its widest point right now with respect to performance. MLPS have shown excellent relative strength here. Now you might say..."but joe...MLPS really are dependant on energy price moves"...and for the most part you are correct. Some MLPS have limited price risk but for the most part they don't. But when the market is selling a group often times they don't care. In this case they would sell anything that has the word energy in it. But given the magnitude of the sell off in big oil i am actually quite amazed that MLPS have held up as well as they have. I think a big factor is that distributions are coming so that keeps a floor under them Energy Transfer Partners however is correcting harder as they have already went ex-distribution.


Judging by the chart i think this stock has the potential to break below 50 dollars. Energy Transfer Equity's chart (below) looks much better to me as the uptrend remains in tact. Remember that ETP is already in 50-50 split land and if the company distribution continues to go even at a slower pace (which seems likely), the GP will tend to benefit more so I think ETE has more upside potential on a percentage basis. But since the LP is correcting i think you have time.



Meanwhile this morning E.V.Energy Partners (EVEP) is getting a boost by Oppenhiemer. It starts coverage here with a buy recommendation. No other news this morinng on the corporate front.

A wintry cold weather pattern will be taking over the weather maps beginning next week. And while it it won't be non-stop cold, i think temperatures for the second half of the month will average near or below normal for much of the midwest and northeast.

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