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Wednesday, January 02, 2008

BEGINNING 2008!


Happy 2008 to all and by now any hangovers should have been taken care of. One year ago today we began a move on the MLP index which took us from just under 280 to just over 340 by July. And of course we know that since then we have been the throws of a 20% correction which has formed this fabulous triple bottom at 290 and we start the year just over 300.


Tax loss selling is done so that pressure has come off. Hedge fund selling is done as well for the most part unless there is some renagade fund out there that decided to wait until 2008 to unload. We have yield spreads at the highest end of a range that before has produced substatial rallies. We have a triple bottom in the chart. I won't be completely sold on the last one until we take out 310. So it looks like the wind is at our backs. Forever the optimist its time for some upside. What i will be more interested in is what happens to issues like Linn Energy (LINE) and a few others which took hits in December due to priviate equity shares coming to market after lock up periods expired. Those issues deserve to bounce and bounce quite hard. Also another tailwind will be the upcoming distribution announcements which will bring about another round of nice increases. It all looks good but in this tenuous market enviornment may mean nothing.

This morning we have no news and an empty upgrade downgrade list. Oil is over 98 bucks as we take a shot at 100 bucks again. Nat gas not doing much and btw weather in the US over the next 10 days resembles a blowtorch! A pattern switch to colder may come around mid month.

The first open of 2008 looms.

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