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Monday, January 07, 2008

A TALE OF 2 CHARTS

Once upon there were 2 charts. One was an MLP chart
The other was a dow jones industrial chart

Each chart had its own little story to tell. The dow chart appears to be on the verge of a breakdown and wants to take everything else along with it on a bear road to decline. The mlp chart however resisted mightly, tracing out a triple bottom and a base formation, trying ever so hard to diverge from the mean dow chart. And then one day.......

How this story ends is going to depend on so many things. Certainly we have the 2000-02 bear market as an example where MLPS (at least the ones that were around at the time) moved higher during that period and substantially so while everything else imploded. However there are differences from then and now. First off we had interest rates that went to 1%...not happening in this rate cycle. Oil prices were low and rising. Oil is at record highs here and not showing any signs of breaking down. Gold was 300 now at 850, The dollar was certainly far stronger. And on and on and on. Last week's action on MLPS was actually okay in comparison to the rest of the market which right now sits on the August lows. There are positive divergences. The new lows list was a mile long on Friday but there were no mlps on it that i could find. Watch and see if the market rallies today what goes up. If mlps go up along with stock like Coca Cola, Proctor and Gamble and other things defensivc, the tape may be telling us something.

No news and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

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